Can Virginia Reach Bowl Eligibility in 2023? Analyzing UVA's Path to Six Wins

Breaking down the 2023 UVA football schedule to see how the Cavaliers can reach bowl eligibility this season

After a disappointing 2022 season and an offseason that saw the departures of several key starters on both sides of the ball, expectations are unsurprisingly low this fall for the Virginia football team, which was picked to finish 14th in the ACC Football preseason poll. Still, UVA returns a solid defensive unit and there are a number of new faces on the roster, in particular on the offense, who could prove to elevate the Cavaliers beyond their lowly outlook for the 2023 season. 

We'll continue to dive deeper into UVA's roster over the next couple of weeks, but today let's take a look at the slate of opponents awaiting the Cavaliers on their 2023 schedule to see how Virginia could surpass expectations and potentially reach the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility this season. 

Naturally, the most winnable game on UVA's schedule is the FCS matchup against William & Mary on October 7th. A win should never be assumed - especially against a Tribe squad that went 11-2 and reached the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs last season - but there's a reason why even the most pessimistic predictions have Virginia going at worst 1-11 this season. 

Matchups against Georgia Tech (November 4th) and Virginia Tech (November 25th) offer the most winnable conference games for the Cavaliers. Both are home games and come against opponents expected to be near the bottom of the ACC. The Yellow Jackets and Hokies were picked to finish 12th and 11th in the conference, respectively. This isn't to say that Virginia will be favored in those games - that will depend largely on how each team's season has gone to that point - but these are must-win games for the Cavaliers if they want to go bowling in 2023. 

There's a group of five games on Virginia's schedule that will be challenging, but the Cavaliers will likely have to win at least three of those games in order to get to six victories on the season. The home opener against James Madison on September 9th will be pivotal. The Dukes went 8-3 in 2022, becoming the first-ever first-year FBS program to earn a ranking in the AP Top 25. That'll be a feverish and emotional day at Scott Stadium, with a large contingent of JMU fans likely to be in attendance the same day that Virginia will play its first home game since last November's tragedy. There might be no better story in college football this season than if UVA earns a big win over JMU on September 9th. 

Also in that group of five games are road matchups at Boston College (September 30th) and Louisville (November 9th) and home games against NC State (September 22nd) and Duke (November 18th). Road games are always tougher, but with the Eagles predicted to finish just above UVA (13th in the ACC), that game is a must-win for the Cavaliers. Louisville defeated Virginia by a wide margin in Charlottesville last season and is predicted to finish 8th in the conference this season, but the Cardinals are also under the direction of a new head coach, so there is some uncertainty there.  Speaking of a new head coach, Duke had a strong season in year 1 under Mike Elko, but the Blue Devils haven't beaten the Cavaliers in Charlottesville since 2013. 

Then there's perhaps the most storyline-filled matchup on the calendar, as former UVA quarterback Brennan Armstrong, offensive coordinator Robert Anae, and offensive line coach Garett Tujague return to Virginia when NC State comes to town on Friday, September 22nd. The Wolfpack were picked to finish 4th (and received one first-place vote) in the ACC, but it'll be interesting to see how Brennan Armstrong plays against his former team, as the last time he played a game at Scott Stadium he threw back-to-back pick-sixes to start the game. 

If the Cavaliers can't manage to win three of those five games, then they'll have to win one of the remaining four games we have to discuss, each of which would likely require a significant upset. 

Virginia is already a 28-point underdog for its season-opening game against Tennessee (September 2nd) in Nashville. It's essentially a road game against an SEC team that beat Clemson by a wide margin in the Orange Bowl. UVA's next-toughest non-conference game is a true road matchup against old ACC rival Maryland (September 15th), a team that went 8-5 in 2022 and returns All-Big Ten quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. Virginia's most difficult conference games are road matchups at North Carolina (October 21st) and Miami (October 28th) the following week. UNC will be led by star quarterback Drake Maye and is ranked No. 21 in the preseason AP Top 25. Miami will once again be very talented (from a recruiting standpoint) and was picked to finish 5th in the ACC. 

Of course, no game is impossible to win, but the so-called "path of least resistance" for the Cavaliers to get to six wins is to beat William & Mary, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech, and then win three of the games against James Madison, NC State, Boston College, Louisville, or Duke. We'll see how it goes. 

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