Reevaluating Virginia's Win-Loss Projections After 2-4 Start

Using ESPN's Football Power Index to analyze the Cavaliers' chances of getting back in the win column in their final six games of the season

Coming into the season, most college football win total projections had Virginia winning seven games in the 2022 season. With a solid batch of offensive talent returning and one of the easiest schedules in the Power Five, that seemed like like a manageable goal in the first year of the Tony Elliott era. 

But, after starting the season 2-4, including losses to Illinois, Syracuse, Duke, and Louisville - all matchups that were pegged as wins for UVA in most preseason predictions - it is certainly time to reevaluate Virginia's projected season record for the remaining six games. 

Of the seven games that Virginia was predicted to win this season, most were in the front half of the schedule. With UVA going 2-4 through the midway point of the season, it seems very unlikely that the Cavaliers will achieve that 7-win mark or even go 6-6 to achieve bowl eligibility considering that the toughest opponents on Virginia's slate are still to come. 

According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Virginia is favored to win only two of its remaining six games and the matchup predictor favors UVA by a very slim margin in those two games. The FPI gives Virginia a 51.8% chance to beat Coastal Carolina in week 12 in Charlottesville and a 50.7% chance to defeat Virginia Tech in the regular season finale in Blacksburg. 

See what the ESPN FPI says about Virginia's six remaining games:

October 20th at Georgia Tech
59.4% Georgia Tech, 40.6% Virginia

October 29th vs. Miami
71.0% Miami, 29.0% Virginia

November 5th vs. North Carolina
74.9% North Carolina, 25.1% Virginia

November 12th vs. Pittsburgh
71.9% Pittsburgh, 28.1% Virginia

November 19th vs. Coastal Carolina
48.2% Coastal, 51.8% Virginia

November 26th vs. Virginia Tech
49.3% Virginia Tech, 50.7% Virginia

These metrics are subject to change and if Virginia continues to lose games, it would be reasonable to expect that the FPI will continue to move in favor of UVA's opponents moving forward. At this point, the Cavaliers would need a miracle to reach bowl eligibility and even a 4-8 regular season finish appears to be a lofty goal for the 2022 season. 

See more Virginia football news and content: Virginia Football on Sports Illustrated

See more Virginia sports news and content: Virginia Cavaliers on Sports Illustrated

To stay up to date on all Virginia Cavaliers sports news, follow CavaliersNow on social media:

Facebook: @CavaliersNow
Twitter: @CavaliersNowFN

Latest Virginia Cavaliers news and storylines

WATCH: Trey Murphy III Drops 27 Points for Pelicans in NBA Preseason

UVA Volleyball Falls at Georgia Tech and Clemson, Still Winless in ACC Play

No. 6 UVA Field Hockey Wins Sixth Straight, Defeats Miami (Ohio) 2-1

UVA Women's Soccer Yields Late Goal, Plays Syracuse to 2-2 Draw

Virginia Basketball: 2023 Recruiting Target Schedules Official Visit to UVA

WATCH: UVA Players React to Disappointing Loss to Louisville