Virginia Football vs. James Madison Game Preview, Score Prediction
After getting thrashed by Tennessee in a lopsided 49-13 defeat to open the 2023 season last weekend in Nashville, Virginia will look to get things back on track in the home opener against James Madison. These two programs are in-state rivals, but will meet on the field on Saturday at Scott Stadium for the first time in 40 years.
As the Cavaliers and Dukes battle for Commonwealth supremacy, read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. James Madison, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, keys to the game, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: James Madison Dukes (1-0) at Virginia Cavaliers (0-1)
When: Saturday, September 9th at 12pm ET
Where: Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia (61,500)
How to watch: ESPNU
How to listen: SiriusXM 136 or 121 | Virginia Sports Radio Network
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: Virginia leads 2-1
Last meeting: Virginia defeated James Madison 21-14 on September 17th, 1983 at Scott Stadium
Spread: JMU -6
Over/under: 40.5
Notes
- Virginia and James Madison are separated by just 58 miles, but this is the first meeting between the two programs since 1983.
- This is the fourth-ever meeting between UVA and JMU. Each game has been played at Scott Stadium and the Cavaliers won two out of the three previous matchups.
- Virginia owns a 60-26-5 record in home openers at Scott Stadium and has won nine of its last 11 home openers.
- UVA is 3-2 all-time against current Sun Belt schools.
- Saturday's contest will be the 500th game at Scott Stadium, the fourth-oldest stadium in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
- Opening in 1931, UVA owns a 283-204-12 all-time record at Scott Stadium.
Read Virginia's injury report for the JMU game here.
See UVA's depth chart for the JMU game here.
Opponent Scouting Report: James Madison
2023: 1-0
2022: 8-3 (6-2 SBC)
JMU's first season at the FBS level was a resounding success, with the Dukes becoming the first-ever first-year FBS team to earn a ranking in the AP Top 25. JMU went 8-3 and 6-2 in the Sun Belt, capped by a dominant 47-7 victory over then-No. 23 Coastal Carolina in the final game of the season. Curt Cignetti's squad is looking to build off that strong year 1 campaign and make some noise in postseason play too as the Dukes were ineligible to participate in postseason action last season.
Just as Virginia's whole team picture can't be painted from the blowout loss to Tennessee last week, it's difficult to draw many meaningful conclusions based on JMU's 38-3 dismantling of Bucknell in Harrisonburg. The victory did serve to determine JMU's firm starting quarterback, with Cignetti naming redshirt senior and Arizona transfer Jordan McCloud as the starter for the Virginia game. It was a small sample size, but McCloud was decidedly more impressive than Alonza Barnett III, with McCloud completing seven of his 11 passing attempts for 144 yards and two touchdowns. One of those scores was a 57-yard strike to Reggie Brown, who had three catches for 77 yards. Brown was one of eight different Dukes to record a reception in the blowout win.
While JMU's passing game was effective, the team's execution in the ground game was even better, amassing 261 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Kaelon Black had himself a game, rushing 12 times for 125 yards, including a 57-yard run, and averaging 10.4 yards per carry. Latrele Palmer was also solid with 10 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown. JMU was heavily run in its playcalling with 41 runs vs. 24 passing plays, but that was skewed by the Dukes running the clock out in the second half. It'll be interesting to see how committed JMU is to the run against Virginia on Saturday.
On the defensive side, the scouting report for JMU is similar to that of Tennessee, with the front seven being the strength of the unit. UVA offensive coordinator Des Kitchings specifically noted the experience of linebackers Jailin Walker and Taurus Jones, who were both selected to All-Sun Belt teams last season and who have played in a combined 38 games for the Dukes. Jones and defensive lineman Mikail Kamara each had a sack and multiple tackles for loss against Bucknell last week. The Dukes have an abundance of size and strength on the inside of the defensive line and a lot of strength and speed on the outside.
JMU prioritizes stopping the run and did so at an extremely high level in 2022, ranking No. 2 in the nation in run defense. That forces opposing offenses to beat the Dukes over the top, something that could be an issue for the Cavaliers if they're playing an injured Tony Muskett or a true freshman in Anthony Colandrea at quarterback.
Keys to the Game
Offensive line improvement
Whether it's a less than 100% Tony Muskett or a true freshman Anthony Colandrea making his first collegiate start at quarterback, it's imperative that the Virginia offensive line make significant improvements in its pass protection. The Cavaliers were facing a considerable challenge against the Volunteers last week, but Muskett was under duress on many of his dropbacks and was sacked four times, including one that knocked him out of the game with a left shoulder injury. Perhaps more importantly, UVA must build on the momentum gained in the second half when the Cavaliers rushed for 104 yards. If Virginia can establish a somewhat reliable ground game against the Dukes, the game will immediately become significantly more manageable, regardless of who plays quarterback for UVA on Saturday.
Limit the big plays
Virginia did a good job preventing explosive plays against Tennessee last weekend. The Volunteers had only one passing play of more than 20 yards and only one rushing play of more than 20 yards. The Cavaliers were diced up on short and medium-length passes and runs, but stopping the big play will be essential against the Dukes, who had a 57-yard passing touchdown and a 57-yard rushing play in their win over Bucknell.
Manage the emotions of the day
Of course, the storyline of the day will be Virginia's first home game since tragedy struck last November, when Lavel Davis Jr., Devin Chandler, and D'Sean Perry were shot and killed. UVA is expecting its largest crowd since before the COVID-19 pandemic and there will be an on-field ceremony honoring the three shooting victims prior to the game. The Hoos will undoubtedly be playing with the memories of Davis, Chandler, and Perry on their hearts and minds and rightfully so. But it's also important that the Cavaliers regain their focus by kickoff so they can honor their fallen teammates in the best way possible: with a victory.
Prediction
The oddsmakers don't like Virginia in this one, as James Madison is somewhere in the neighborhood of a touchdown favorite on the road in this matchup. It's understandable, as JMU was very good against inferior competition in week 1, while UVA was distinctly inferior in its loss to Tennessee. The Dukes also had a much more successful 2022 season and are currently a fringe team receiving votes in the AP poll.
With that said, Virginia showed enough promising signs on both sides of the ball against what could very well be one of the best teams in college football this season. The Cavaliers should be able to deliver a much better showing against a quality, but lesser challenging opponent in JMU.
And beyond the X's and O's, this is an important game for the Cavaliers to win and they know it. With the entire UVA and Charlottesville community behind the team, Virginia will play the definition of inspired football and find a way to win on Saturday.
Score prediction: Virginia 27, James Madison 24
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