Virginia vs. Boston College Game Preview, Score Prediction

Game details and notes, scouting report, keys to the game, and predictions for the UVA football game at Boston College on Saturday

The Virginia Cavaliers are shipping up to Boston to battle the Boston College Eagles in Chestnut Hill for the first time since 2010. Neither team has been particularly satisfied with its 2023 season so far, with BC coming in with a 1-3 record and UVA still searching for its first victory this year. Thus, this game presents perhaps the best opportunity for either team to pick up a conference victory this season. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia at Boston College, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, keys to the game, and a score prediction. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (0-4, 0-1 ACC) at Boston College Eagles (1-3, 0-2 ACC)

When: Saturday, September 30th at 2pm ET

Where: Alumni Stadium (44,500) in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts

How to watch: The CW Network

How to listen: SiriusXM 386, SXM App 977 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

All-time series: Boston College leads 6-1

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Boston College 43-32 on December 5th, 2020.

Spread: Boston College -3.5

Over/Under: 53.5

Notes

• Virginia and Boston College meet on the gridiron for just the eighth time ever and first time in Chestnut Hill since 2010. 
• The Eagles claimed victory in the first six meetings between these two schools, but the Cavaliers snapped that streak with a 43-32 win over BC in 2020. 
• Both Virginia and Boston College are currently winless in ACC play.
• UVA has lost seven-straight games dating back to last season and is 0-4 to start a season for the first time since 1982. Virginia hasn't lost eight-consecutive games since 2013. 
• Virginia long snapper Aidan Livingston played for Boston College for three seasons and appeared in 24 games, including one against the Cavaliers in 2020, before transferring to UVA in 2022.

Opponent Scouting Report: Boston College

2023: 1-3, 0-2 ACC
2022: 3-9, 2-6 ACC

This is an important game for both head coaches, as Tony Elliott looks to put Virginia in the win column for the first time this year and Jeff Hafley looks to right the ship in his fourth year at the helm of the Boston College football program. The Eagles are 16-23 under Hafley, went 3-9 and 2-6 in ACC play last season, and are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Boston College is 1-3 so far this season and was very close to starting 0-4 just like Virginia. BC began the season with a brutal 27-24 overtime loss to Northern Illinois. Then, the Eagles just barely held off Holy Cross 31-28 for their first and only win of the season. 

Then came the game that shows just how dangerous Boston College can be. Florida State, one of the top 10 teams in the country and a top contender for the ACC title, saw its 31-10 lead almost entirely disappear as the Eagles scored 19 unanswered points and nearly staged an epic comeback before ultimately falling 31-29. Boston College reverted last week and couldn't stop Louisville's offense whatsoever in a lopsided 56-28 road loss to the Cardinals. That brings us to one of the critical questions for this week's matchup: which version of the BC defense shows up this week - the one that held FSU to 29 or the one that gave up 56 to Louisville?

Boston College surrenders 35.5 points per game (13th in the ACC) and 417.0 yards per game (12th) and its rushing defense is particularly susceptible, giving up 189 rushing yards per game (12th). If there was ever a game where Virginia could get its lifeless ground game going, this is it. Look for UVA to give Kobe Pace, Perris Jones, and Mike Hollins plenty of opportunities to get into a rhythm. 

Virginia's offensive line has been improving every week and this could be the game where the Cavaliers actually have the edge up front. Boston College's defensive line has recorded just four sacks this season, dead last in the ACC. Three of those four sacks and most of the team's pressures and tackles for loss have come from defensive ends Neto Okpala and Shitta Sillah, so the Cavaliers, and in particularly their offensive tackles, will have to key in on those players in pass protection and run blocking. 

Boston College will occasionally leave its defensive backs in man coverage, so Virginia will have opportunities to beat the Eagles down the field with Malik Washington and Malachi Fields. Whether it's Tony Muskett or Anthony Colandrea at quarterback, the Cavaliers have to capitalize on those chances. 

On the other side of the ball, dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos will be a handful for the UVA defense. Castellanos threw for 265 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for 49 yards and another score last week against Louisville. So far this season, Castellanos is completing 57.3% of his passes for 909 yards and eight passing touchdowns, while rushing for 280 yards and three touchdowns. It will be just as important for the Virginia defense to stop his legs as it is to stop his arm. 

This game features two of the top receiver duos in the ACC with Virginia's Malik Washington and Malachi Fields and Boston College's Lewis Bond and Ryan O'Keefe both featured in the top 15 of the conference's receiving stats. Bond leads the Eagles in receiving yards and scores with 246 yards and four touchdowns, but O'Keefe ranks in the top 10 in receptions with 20. 

Boston College mixes it up in terms of play selection between pass and run, but the Eagles are more more successful throwing it than running it. BC ranks 4th in the ACC in passing offense (242.3 yards per game) as compared to its modest ranking of 10th in rushing offense (161.8 yards). Kye Robichaux is the team's top running back with 51 carries for 206 yards and two touchdowns, but Castellanos is by far the team's top rusher, averaging 70.0 yards per game. Containing Castellanos and limiting his ability to scramble outside the pocket will be a top priority for the Cavalier defensive front. 

Keys to the Game

Protect the quarterback, establish the run.

These might seem like lofty goals for UVA's offensive line, but perhaps for the first time this season, these are very achievable objectives. It's more of an even matchup in the trenches between Virginia and Boston College and it's one that the Cavalier offensive line can win with proper execution. Whether it's Tony Muskett or Anthony Colandrea starting at quarterback, a consistently clean pocket is essential. And maybe, just maybe, Virginia finally having some success running the football could be the key to the team's first victory of 2023. 

Contain Castellanos.

We went over this in the scouting report section, but the ability of Thomas Castellanos to extend plays with his legs, scramble for first downs, and make accurate throws down the field on the run is Boston College's greatest offensive asset. UVA's defensive line, which has been severely depleted by the injury bug, has to keep Castellanos in the pocket as much as possible. If the Cavaliers can do that consistently, they'll gain the upper hand on that side of the ball. 

Play disciplined. 

Virginia took a step in the right direction with regards to playing four full quarters last week, scoring a late touchdown to tie things up against NC State. But three costly penalties from the Cavaliers in the last 36 seconds allowed the game to slip through their fingers. Even on the road, Virginia can win this game, but it will require a complete, disciplined effort from start to finish. 

Prediction

This is a game Virginia has to win. An 0-4 start to the season has lowered the season's ceiling, but given UVA's competition in those four games, this wasn't that surprising of an outcome. There have been some significant signs of progress made, but those improvements won't mean anything if the Cavaliers can't put it all together and win this, one of the most winnable games left on their schedule. After facing four strong teams who have a combined 14-2 record so far this season, this is the first time UVA will face an opponent with a record below .500 and it presents a golden opportunity for the Hoos to finally get in the win column. I think they get it done. 

Score prediction: Virginia 31, Boston College 27

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