Virginia vs. Duke Game Preview, Score Prediction

Game details and notes, scouting report, and predictions for the UVA football game against Duke on Saturday afternoon

The penultimate game of the 2023 Virginia football season brings the Duke Blue Devils to Charlottesville on Saturday afternoon. It's been a tough year for the Cavaliers, but they have a chance to salvage the season with two home games against a pair of major rivals in the last two weeks with Duke coming to Scott Stadium this weekend and Virginia Tech following suit next week in the finale. 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Duke, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, and a score prediction. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (2-8, 1-5 ACC) vs. Duke Blue Devils (6-4, 3-3 ACC)

When: Saturday, November 18th at 3pm ET

Where: Scott Stadium (61,500) in Charlottesville, VA

How to watch: The CW Network

How to listen: SiriusXM 111 or 194, SXM App 959 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

All-time series: Virginia leads 40-34

Last meeting: Duke defeated Virginia 38-17 on October 1st, 2022 in Durham.

Line: Duke -3.5

Over/Under: 46.5

Notes

• Virginia and Duke meet for the 75th time on Saturday. 
• UVA leads Duke 40-34 in the all-time series, which dates back to 1890. 
• The Cavaliers and Blue Devils have played every season since 1963. 
• Virginia had its seven-game winning streak in the series snapped last year when Duke defeated UVA 38-17 in Durham last season. 
• Virginia has won each of the last five games against Duke at Scott Stadium, including a 48-0 win the last time these two teams played in Charlottesville in 2021. 
• UVA owns a 22-11 record against Duke in games played at Scott Stadium.
• Virginia has not won an ACC game at home since October 23rd, 2021. 

Opponent Scouting Report: Duke

2023: 6-4, 3-3 ACC
2022: 9-4 5-3 ACC

Mike Elko has done a fantastic job since taking over as Duke's head coach two years ago, boasting a 15-8 record so far. The Blue Devils went 9-4 last season and Elko was named the ACC Coach of the Year. This season, Duke opened the season with a big win over Clemson and went on to start the year 6-1, achieving a ranking as high as No. 16 in the AP poll. The Blue Devils have taken a tumble since then, losing three of their last four games, capped by a 47-45 double overtime loss to rival North Carolina last weekend. 

Part of Duke's recent downturn has been a direct result of the absence of quarterback Riley Leonard, who is out indefinitely with a toe injury. That has pressed true freshman Grayson Loftis into service. In five games played, Loftis has completed 26 of 52 passes for 305 yards and four touchdowns to one interception. 

Loftis hasn't been bad, but the Blue Devils clearly don't trust him yet and have therefore transitioned to a run-first offense. Virginia can expect a heavy dosage of Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore, Duke's running back tandem. Waters has 677 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns this season and both he and Moore are averaging 5.6 yards per carry. When Loftis does air it out, his top targets will be Jordan Moore and Jordan Calhoun. Moore has 42 catches for 571 yards and seven touchdowns and Calhoun has 37 receptions for 519 yards and two touchdowns. 

Duke's defense has been solid for most of the season, but giving up 537 yards of total offense, including 342 yards passing, against North Carolina was a major blemish on the team's defensive resume. The Blue Devils are now ranked No. 7 in the ACC in total defense, but are still third in the conference in scoring defense, giving up just 18.8 points per game. 

Duke's top defensive player from a production standpoint is redshirt sophomore linebacker Tre Freeman, who paces the team with 85 total tackles to go along with four tackles for loss, four quarterback hurries, 1.5 sacks, one interception, and one forced fumble. 

Seven different Blue Devils have posted multiple sacks this season, including junior nose tackle Brandon Johnson (two sacks, seven TFLs) and senior defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles (three sacks, six TFLs). The biggest challenge for Virginia on Saturday will be protecting Anthony Colandrea and trying to establish the run against Duke's ferocious front seven, which is certainly one of the best units in the ACC. 

Prediction

Saturday's game is likely to be a battle of true freshman quarterbacks, with Duke starting Grayson Loftis and Virginia going with Anthony Colandrea for the injured Tony Muskett. Colandrea has a slight edge on Loftis in terms of experience, as this will be his fifth start of the season. If he make some big throws and avoid the costly mistakes and turnovers that have plagued him so far this season, the Cavaliers will have a good chance to pull this one off and pick up their first home ACC win in two years. 

Score prediction: Virginia 31, Duke 28

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