Virginia vs. Louisville Game Preview, Score Prediction

Game details and notes, scouting report, and predictions for the UVA football game at No. 11 Louisville on Thursday

Virginia hits the road for the final time this season, traveling on a short week to take on No. 11 Louisville on Thursday night. The Cardinals are having an outstanding season in their first year under Jeff Brohm and have the inside track to clinch the second spot in the ACC Championship Game for the first time ever. UVA stands in the way. Can the Hoos give the Cards a fight on Thursday night? 

Read on for a full preview of Virginia at Louisville, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, and a score prediction. 

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (2-7, 1-4 ACC) at Louisville Cardinals (8-1, 5-1 ACC)

When: Thursday, November 9th at 7:30pm ET

Where: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (Louisville, KY)

How to watch: ESPN

How to listen: SiriusXM 386, SXM App 976 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

All-time series: Louisville leads 6-5

Last meeting: Louisville defeated Virginia 34-17 on October 8th, 2022 in Charlottesville.

Line: Louisville -20.0

Over/Under: 50.5

Notes

• Thursday night marks the 12th all-time meeting between Virginia and Louisville in a series that dates back to 1988. 
• UVA and Louisville have played every season since the Cardinals joined the ACC in 2014. 
• Currently ranked No. 11 in the College Football Playoff Top 25, Louisville is the third ranked opponent UVA has faced this season and all of those games have been on the road. 
• Virginia plays a night game for the fourth time this season, but this is UVA's first Thursday night game since beating Georgia Tech in Atlanta last season. 
• In the last meeting between these two teams in Louisville, Virginia came from behind and beat the Cardinals on a game-winning touchdown reception by Grant Misch in the final minute of the 4th quarter. 

Opponent Scouting Report: Louisville

2023: 8-1, 5-1 ACC
2022: 8-5, 4-4 ACC

In year 1 under new head coach Jeff Brohm, Louisville was picked to finish 8th in the ACC. Two months later, the Cardinals are 8-1 and control their own destiny to join Florida State in the ACC Championship for the first time in their ten years since joining the conference. Louisville officially announced its arrival with a remarkable 33-20 victory over Notre Dame in week 6, but then proceeded to suffer a shocking 38-21 loss at Pittsburgh the very next week. Without that surprising defeat, the Cardinals would very much be in the College Football Playoff conversation right now. Louisville has bounced back nicely since that loss, beating Duke and Virginia Tech by a combined margin of 57-3. Now, the Cards will look to keep that momentum going as they round out a three-game homestand with the Cavaliers coming to town on Thursday night. 

This is usually the section of the preview where I offer a detailed scouting report of Virginia's opponent, pointing out what they do well as well as areas where UVA might be able to gain an advantage. But there isn't a whole Louisville doesn't do well. In fact, when we asked Louisville Report's Matt McGavic earlier this week to discuss some possible weaknesses the Cardinals have, his answer mentioned a penchant for committing penalties and some risky throws from quarterback Jack Plummer, issues that have been largely cleaned up in recent weeks. Simply put, Louisville is a strong football team in all facets of the game and the Cards are currently firing on all cylinders. 

Offensively, Louisville ranks 4th in the ACC in scoring offense (32.9 ppg), 4th in total offense (440.8 ypg), 4th in rushing offense (188.8 ypg), and 5th in passing offense (252.0 ypg). Quarterback Jack Plummer is 3rd in the conference in completion percentage and has 2,159 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. He has thrown eight interceptions this season, but six of those picks came in the first five weeks of the season. The other two came in that loss at Pitt. 

Plummer has done an excellent job managing the offense and getting the ball into the hands of Louisville's many playmakers. The two main skill position names to know are running back Jawhar Jordan and wide receiver Jamari Thrash. Jordan is 2nd in the ACC in rushing at 97.9 yards per game, racking up 11 touchdowns and 881 yards and averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Thrash is 2nd in the ACC in receiving at 89.0 yards per game and has hauled in six touchdowns this season. 

Louisville's defense ranks 2nd in the ACC in scoring defense (16.3 ppg allowed) and 2nd in total defense (285.2 ypg allowed).The Cardinals boast the conference's No. 1 rushing defense, surrendering just 88.8 yards per game on the ground. Opponents have scored just seven rushing touchdowns against Louisville this season - for context, UVA has given up 22 rushing touchdowns in the same number of games. Through the air, Louisville is almost as good, ranking 3rd in the ACC in pass defense. 

Louisville is 3rd in the conference with 10 interceptions as a team, headlined by junior defensive back Devin Neal, who has three picks. With Virginia likely going with freshman Anthony Colandrea at quarterback due to Tony Muskett's ankle injury, it will be more important than ever that Colandrea learn how to take care of the football. 

Redshirt sophomore linebacker TJ Quinn is Louisville's best defender, leading the team with 67 tackles to go along with 2.5 tackles for loss, two pass breakups, two quarterback hurries, one interception, and one fumble recovery. 12 different Cardinals have recorded a sack this season, led by junior defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte, who is 2nd in the ACC with 8.5 sacks this season. Virginia's offensive line will have its hands full with Louisville's defensive front, which is one of the best units in the country. 

Prediction

In lieu of reiterating with words what a lopsided matchup this is on paper, I direct your attention to the following graph, courtesy of @statsowar on Twitter, which breaks down some of the advanced analytics of Thursday night's matchup. There's a lot of somewhat complex metrics in the chart, but the only thing you really need to understand is: blue = good, red = bad. 

Virginia vs. Louisville Advanced Stats Preview :: @statsowar/Twitter

Virginia shocked the world with its upset win at North Carolina nearly a month ago. Given that result, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Cavaliers go into Louisville and find a way to pull off another stunner. But it is very unlikely. 

Score prediction: Virginia 14, Louisville 31

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