Virginia vs. Miami Game Preview, Score Prediction
Coming off what could be a program-defining victory at North Carolina last week, Virginia will look to build on the momentum of that win in another tough road game against Miami on Saturday afternoon in Miami Gardens. Just as the Cavaliers are riding the high of the win over the Tar Heels, so too are the Hurricanes looking to build off of their big victory over Clemson last weekend. Can UVA overcome another difficult challenge and pull the upset again?
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Miami, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, keys to the game, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (2-5, 1-2 ACC) at Miami Hurricanes (5-2, 1-2 ACC)
When: Saturday, October 28th at 3:30pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
How to watch: ACC Network
How to listen: SiriusXM 930 SXM App 980 | Virginia Sports Radio Network
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: Miami leads 12-8
Last meeting: Miami defeated Virginia 14-12 in quadruple overtime on Saturday, October 29th in Charlottesville.
Line: Miami -19.0
Over/Under: 46.5
Notes
- Virginia and Miami meet for the 21st time with the Hurricanes leading 12-8 in the series, which began in 1996.
- The last meeting between these two teams was the longest game in UVA football history, ending in four overtimes.
- Virginia is on its first two-game winning streak since the 2021 season, when the Cavaliers won four-straight games, starting with a 30-28 win at Miami the last time UVA visited Hard Rock Stadium.
- That win over the Hurricanes in 2021 snapped a six-game losing streak at Miami for the Cavaliers.
- Miami is the eighth team Virginia is facing this season that currently has a record of .500 or better.
Opponent Scouting Report: Miami
2023: 5-2, 1-2 ACC
2022: 5-7, 3-5 ACC
A turbulent three-week stretch of football has left many questions about just how good this Miami team is, but the Hurricanes are certainly much improved over last season, when they went 5-7 in their first year under Mario Cristobal. One of those five victories was a bizarre and, for Virginia fans, incredibly frustrating game at Scott Stadium. Miami was without its starting quarterback and neither team scored a single touchdown in the game. Ultimately, UVA lost in the fourth overtime after squandering several opportunities to win. The 2022 season held many tough losses for the Cavaliers, but none more painful than that one.
This season, Miami got off to a strong 4-0 start through non-conference play, but the only remotely notable result was a 48-33 victory over Texas A&M. After that, perhaps looking ahead to big games against North Carolina and Clemson, the Hurricanes overlooked lowly Georgia Tech and ended up suffering an embarrassing defeat in which they refused to kneel out the clock, fumbled in the final minute, and gave up a last-second touchdown in a stunning loss. Miami then went to Chapel Hill and failed to do what Virginia managed to accomplish a week later, falling to North Carolina 41-31. Last week, the Hurricanes bounced back in a big way, winning a thriller against Clemson 28-20 by making a huge goal line stand in double overtime.
With the wild roller coaster that the last three weeks have been for Miami, it's difficult to get a read on what team is going to show up when UVA comes to town on Saturday. But as always, the Hurricanes have a great deal of talent.
On offense, it all starts with quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who currently leads the ACC in completion percentage at 70.5% and is second in passing touchdowns with 16 and average passing yards with 286.8 passing yards per game. Miami boasts the second-best offense in the ACC, averaging 36.3 points per game and 481.9 yards per game, and the Hurricanes are top three in both passing and rushing offense.
Van Dyke has two of the ACC's top six receivers to throw to in Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George. Restrepo is third in the conference with 600 yards on 54 receptions and four touchdowns, while George is sixth with 467 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Add in Colbie Young, who has 394 yards and four touchdowns, and Miami has quite a prolific receiving trio that will certainly keep the UVA secondary busy.
In the ground game, two running backs get the bulk of the carries with Henry Parrish Jr. and Donald Chaney Jr. leading the way. Parris is 4th in the ACC at 75.3 yards per game and averages 6.3 yards per carry, while Chaney is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Miami also mixes in redshirt freshman Ajay Allen, who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. No matter who gets the ball, those backs are running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, as the Canes have given up only eight sacks all season.
Miami is excellent in the red zone, scoring on 29 of 33 red zone trips with 20 red zone touchdowns. The Hurricanes are also second in the ACC in third down conversions, converting 46.9% of the time. It will be a tall task, but the UVA defense must stand tall on third downs and in the red zone.
Miami has a top three defense in the ACC, allowing 315.9 yards per game and just 19.1 points per game. The Hurricanes lead the ACC in run defense and rank No. 7 in the country, allowing just 79.6 rushing yards per game and just six total rushing touchdowns all season. Miami's defensive line is strong, as evidenced by the team's 21 sacks so far this season. That number is technically fourth-most in the ACC, but the three teams above them have 22 sacks each so the Hurricanes are right there with the best in the conference.
Miami has playmakers all over the defense, starting with star freshman defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr., who is currently seventh in the ACC with 4.5 sacks. The Hurricanes have a solid linebacker duo in Francisco Mauigoa (34 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, two sacks) and K.J. Cloyd (26 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, two sacks). Fifth-year senior Te'Cory Couch leads the way in the secondary with three interceptions, which is tied for the most in the ACC.
Virginia's offense executed at a high level last Saturday in Chapel Hill. It will take another A+ effort from the Cavaliers to outplay the athletes on Miami's defense this weekend.
Keys to the Game
Compete in the trenches.
Virginia's offensive line held its own against North Carolina, showing a lot of promising signs for the rest of the season. UVA's defensive line showed up when it mattered most too, with Paul Akere forcing the errant pass that ended up in James Jackson's hands for the game-winning interception. Both of those units will have their hands full against the Hurricanes, who are very physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Virginia will need top-notch performances from both lines in order to have a chance in this one.
Win the possession battle.
These are the two top teams in the ACC in terms of time of possession. Miami leads the conference, possessing the ball for 33:03 per game, and Virginia is second at 31:45. UVA's ability to stay in, and ultimately win, at North Carolina on Saturday had a lot to do with the fact that the Cavaliers possessed the ball for more than 37 minutes in that game, giving their defense a huge leg up in their efforts to neutralize Drake Maye and the Tar Heels. Pulling another big upset on Saturday will require a similar outcome, with Virginia valuing the ball, sustaining long drives, and keeping the Miami offense off the field as much as possible.
Play with confidence and momentum.
Belief has been the word of the week, with UVA coaches and players alike using that term frequently to describe how they managed to win at North Carolina last Saturday. After earning the program's first-ever road win against a top 10 opponent, what's stopping the Cavaliers from believing they can win every remaining game on their schedule? The odds are still against them, as one big win only begins to correct the issues that led to the 0-5 start to the season. But there's no doubt that the Wahoos can and should come into Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday night riding a wave of momentum and having confidence that they can leave with a win.
Prediction
Last week, I predicted that Virginia would play North Carolina much tougher than the 24-point spread indicated. I was correct on that front, but not correct on my actual score prediction that UNC would still defeat UVA by two touchdowns. This week, I'd be pleased to have the Cavaliers prove me wrong again. I think Virginia will deliver another strong performance and give Miami a good fight, supported by the fact that the Cavaliers have been competitive in every game since the season opener against Tennessee. But I don't think lightning will strike twice.
Score prediction: Virginia 27, Miami 35
Subscribe to the Cavaliers Now Newsletter to receive UVA sports news in your inbox first thing on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.
See more Virginia football news and content: Virginia Football on Sports Illustrated
See more Virginia sports news and content: Virginia Cavaliers on Sports Illustrated
To stay up to date on all Virginia Cavaliers sports news, follow CavaliersNow on social media:
Facebook: @CavaliersNow
Twitter: @CavaliersNowFN
