Virginia vs. North Carolina Game Preview, Score Prediction
Coming out of the bye week, Virginia enters a gauntlet in the second half of the season with three games against ranked opponents in the final six games. That stretch begins on Saturday, when the Cavaliers renew the South's Oldest Rivalry on the road against No. 10 North Carolina on Saturday night in Chapel Hill.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. North Carolina, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, keys to the game, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (1-5, 0-2 ACC) at North Carolina Tar Heels (6-0, 3-0 ACC)
When: Saturday, October 21st at 6:30pm ET
Where: Kenan Memorial Stadium (50,500) in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
How to watch: The CW Network
How to listen: SiriusXM 383, SXM App 973 | Virginia Sports Radio Network
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: North Carolina leads 65-58-4
Last meeting: North Carolina defeated Virginia 31-28 on November 5th, 2022 in Charlottesville.
Line: North Carolina -23.5
Over/Under: 57
Notes
- This will be the 128th all-time meeting between Virginia and North Carolina in the South's Oldest Rivalry, which began in 1882.
- This rivalry is tied with Georgia and Auburn for the second-most played rivalry in college football and only Wisconsin and Minnesota (131 games) have played each other more.
- Virginia faces an opponent ranked in the top 10 for the first time since facing No. 7 Notre Dame in 2021. UVA's last win over a top 10 team was against No. 4 Florida State in 2005.
- UNC is one of two remaining undefeated teams in the ACC (Florida State).
- Virginia has won three of its last four games coming off of a bye week. UVA is 2-2 against North Carolina all-time when coming off of a bye week.
Opponent Scouting Report: North Carolina
2023: 6-0 (3-0 ACC)
2022: 9-5 (6-2 ACC)
For the second season in a row, North Carolina is one of the best teams in the ACC. After making the ACC title game last year, the Tar Heels are off to another blistering 6-0 start with non-conference wins over South Carolina, Appalachian State, and Minnesota and then ACC victories against Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Miami, scoring 40 or more points in each of those conference wins. Entering the second half of the season, UNC is in good position to reach the ACC Championship Game again.
Of course, the North Carolina offense is one of the best in the nation, scoring 30 or more points in each of its first six games and at least 40 in four of the last five. UNC averages 501.3 yards of total offense per game, second-best in the ACC and 8th in FBS. Powered by Drake Maye and a prolific receiving corps, the Tar Heels average an ACC-best 317.0 passing yards per game. North Carolina has scored on 28 of its 31 trips to the red zone this season, including 19 touchdowns and nine field goals, and the Tar Heels convert on 53.8% of their third downs, good for 8th in the country.
Reigning ACC Player of the Year Drake Maye is having another superb season and could be on his way to repeating as the conference's best player. He has completed 68.9% of his passes for 1,902 yards and 12 touchdowns to just four interceptions. With a prototypical quarterback frame, Maye is considered one of the top QB prospects in next year's NFL Draft.
Maye has a plethora of dangerous receiving targets to throw to, as six different UNC players have caught a touchdown pass this year, including three each from Kobe Paysour and Tez Walker, who was finally cleared to play in week 6 after a long battle with the NCAA and proceeded to catch three touchdowns last week against Miami. Nate McCollum is the team's leading receiver with 31 catches for 374 yards and JJ Jones is right behind him with 372 receiving yards. Defenses also have to keep an eye on tight end Bryson Nesbit (17 catches, 2 touchdowns). Maye's great arm and accurate passing combined with all of these capable receivers makes UNC's passing offense incredibly difficult to stop. North Carolina's ground game also averages 184.3 yards per game, fifth most in the ACC. Much of that production comes from Omarion Hampton, who averages 5.9 yards per carry and has tallied 658 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season. Maye is also a threat with his legs with four rushing TDs on the season.
North Carolina's defense isn't nearly as much of a liability as it was last season. UNC's rush defense is particularly strong, ranking fifth in the ACC at just 113.8 rushing yards allowed per game. The Tar Heels are more vulnerable in the pass game, surrendering 245.8 passing yards per game, 13th in the conference. With that said, the UNC secondary is very opportunistic, recording nine interceptions, which leads the ACC and ranks sixth in the country. Three of those picks have come from junior Alijah Huzzie.
North Carolina has playmakers all over the field on defense, but let's focus on a few in the front seven. UNC's linebacker unit might be the best in the ACC, with Cedric Gray ranking 7th in the ACC in tackles with 52 to go along with 2.5 sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss, two fumbles recovered, and an interception. Fellow linebacker Power Nichols has 40 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and an interception. Up front, UNC has a number of a capable pass rushers and run stoppers but the most dangerous is Kaimon Rucker, who averages more than one sack per game to lead the ACC in that category and has posted 10 tackles for loss and eight quarterback hurries. Rucker alone will be a handful for the Virginia offensive line.
Keys to the Game
Throw the first punch.
Des Kitchings has had some solid scripted drives to start games - UVA's offense got off to particularly strong starts against Maryland and Boston College. Coming out of a bye week with tons of time to prepare, Virginia has to throw the first punch on the road against a North Carolina team coming off a big win against Miami last week. With that said, no team has been able to score in the first quarter on the road against North Carolina so far this season (four games). It's imperative that the Cavaliers break that trend so as to not fall behind early against a very talented and well-coached team.
Avoid turnovers and force turnovers.
Virginia's best hope of keeping up with North Carolina on either side of the ball is to win the time of possession battle. Tony Muskett and the UVA offense have to take care of the ball and the Cavalier defense is going to have to come up with a takeaway or two. Stops are good, but turnovers that will set up the Virginia offense in plus field position are even better.
Keep Drake Maye and the UNC offense off the field.
It might seem too lofty a goal to expect UVA to be able to run the ball effectively against North Carolina, but the Cavaliers have to find a way to string together long possessions. Drake Maye and the UNC offense is simply too strong, as evidenced by the prolific numbers they have been putting up this season. Virginia's defense is capable of keeping this a game, but it will be up to the UVA offense to not only keep pace on the scoreboard, but to help out the defense by possessing the ball.
Prediction
On the road against a top 10 team in the country, the odds of 1-5 Virginia emerging from Chapel Hill with a win on Saturday night are expectedly long. North Carolina is currently a 23.5-point favorite and that seems fair. UVA has a history of playing UNC close, though, and I think they will do so again. Not expecting a victory, but the Cavaliers will deliver a respectable effort and make the Tar Heels earn this one.
Score prediction: Virginia 24, North Carolina 38
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