Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Game Preview, Score Prediction
The Commonwealth Clash returns on Saturday afternoon at Scott Stadium and this new chapter of the Virginia-Virginia Tech rivalry will feature the first-ever meeting between Tony Elliott and Brent Pry. As always, there is a lot at stake in this regular season finale. The Cavaliers are looking to end the year on a high note by taking down another rival, while the Hokies are seeking to become bowl eligible with a win in Charlottesville on Saturday. But most importantly, the Commonwealth Cup is up for grabs. Will the first meeting of these head coaches signal a changing of the tides in this one-sided rivalry?
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Virginia Tech, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (3-8, 2-5 ACC) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-6, 4-3 ACC)
When: Saturday, November 25th at 3:30pm ET
Where: Scott Stadium (61,500) in Charlottesville, Virginia
How to watch: ACC Network
How to listen: SiriusXM 138 or 193, SXM App 969 | Virginia Sports Radio Network
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: Virginia Tech leads 60-38-5
Last meeting: Virginia Tech defeated Virginia 29-24 in 2021 in Charlottesville.
Line: Virginia Tech -2.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Notes
- Saturday marks the 104th meeting between Virginia and Virginia Tech in an all-time series that began in 1895 with a 38-0 UVA win.
- Virginia Tech owns a 60-38-5 advantage over Virginia in the series and the Hokies have won 21 of the last 23 meetings.
- Virginia is seeking its first win over Virginia Tech since 2019, when the Cavaliers defeated the Hokies 39-30 at Scott Stadium to claim the ACC Coastal title and snap a 15-year losing streak to Virginia Tech.
- Last season, Virginia and Virginia Tech did not play for the first time since 1969 as the game was cancelled following the tragedy that resulted in the deaths of UVA football players Lavel Davis Jr., Devin Chandler, and D'Sean Perry.
- Second-year head coaches Tony Elliott and Brent Pry meet for the first time on Saturday. Elliott seeks to become the first UVA head coach to beat Virginia Tech in his first attempt since Sonny Randle did so in 1972.
- The Commonwealth Cup was created in 1996 and has been presented to the winning team in this rivalry game to hold until the next game ever since.
Opponent Scouting Report: Virginia Tech
2023: 5-6, 4-3 ACC
2022: 3-8, 1-6 ACC
Virginia and Virginia Tech underwent simultaneous coaching changes in December of 2021, with Tony Elliott succeeding Bronco Mendenhall at UVA and Brent Pry replacing Justin Fuente as the head coach of the Hokies. Virginia Tech went 3-8 in year 1 under Pry and had a similarly rough beginning to this season, starting 2-5 and dropping three-straight games to Purdue, Rutgers, and Marshall.
But since suffering a blowout loss at Florida State on October 7th, the Hokies have largely played better football, winning three of their last five, including dominant wins over Wake Forest and Syracuse. Virginia Tech had a rough outing against the ACC Championship Game-bound Louisville Cardinals in a 34-3 loss, but then picked up a 48-22 win at Boston College for the team's fifth victory of the season. With a chance to become bowl eligible in their final home game of the season, the Hokies fell to Brennan Armstrong and the NC State Wolfpack 35-28 last week.
That leaves Virginia Tech needing to win at Virginia on Saturday to reach 6-6 and bowl eligibility. But motivation is hardly an issue for the Hokies in this game, as they usually play their best against the Cavaliers no matter the records. Virginia Tech should have plenty of confidence that its dominance in this rivalry will continue as Brent Pry and Tony Elliott meet for the first time.
Virginia Tech started the season with Grant Wells at quarterback, but an injury resulted in Baylor transfer Kyron Drones stepping in and he has played well enough to hang onto the job. Drones is a big athlete at 6'2", 234 yards with a big arm and capable legs. He has completed 59.1% of his passes for 1,750 yards and 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Drones has rushed for 592 yards and four touchdowns this season, but more importantly, uses his mobility and size to extend plays.
Even without Old Dominion transfer Ali Jennings, who went down with a season-ending injury after playing in just two games, Virginia Tech still has five receivers with at least 24 catches this season. The headliners are 6'5" senior Da'Quan Felton and 5'10" senior Jaylin Lane, who have remarkably similar numbers:
Felton: 35 receptions, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns
Lane: 37 receptions, 524 yards, 6 touchdowns
Tight end Dae'Quan Wright also gets involved in the passing game quite a bit with 25 receptions on the year.
Virginia Tech ranks 9th in the ACC in both passing offense and rushing offense, but the combination of Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten gives the Hokies a dynamic element in their ground attack. Tuten has 610 rushing yards and seven touchdowns this season and averages 4.4 yards per carry. Malachi Thomas is the other main running back, averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Virginia Tech is good at getting points in the red zone, scoring on 37 of its 42 trips inside the 20, with a breakdown of 21 touchdowns and 16 field goals. But the Hokies aren't great on third down, ranking 13th in the ACC, converting just 32.9% on third downs. Virginia's defense must get off the field in those situations and make stands to force the Hokies to settle for field goals in the red zone.
On defense, Virginia Tech is strong up front and strong in the secondary. Virginia Tech leads the conference in pass defense, allowing just 166.5 yards through the air each game. Dorian Strong leads the capable Hokie secondary, posting six pass breakups and three interceptions on the season.
Virginia Tech boasts a ferocious pass rush, which is tied for first in the ACC with 32 sacks this year. Junior defensive lineman Antwaun Powell-Ryland, dubbed 'APR' by the Hokie faithful, is second in the ACC with nine sacks and fifth with 12.5 tackles for loss. Three other Hokies have at least three sacks this year. Not many opponent rushing attempts get past the second level, as linebackers Keli Lawson and Alan Tisdale have great instincts for the ball, leading the team in tackles with 73 and 60 total stops, respectively.
Virginia's offensive line, which has been a work in progress all season, but which has made tangible, significant progress, will be tested heavily in the final game of the season. Keep an eye on starting left tackle McKale Boley, who is currently day-to-day with an injury. It will be imperative that UVA's receivers, and especially Biletnikoff Award candidate Malik Washington, get open early to allow Anthony Colandrea to get the ball out quickly before the Virginia Tech pass rush gets home.
Prediction
There's no getting around the fact that this has been a one-sided rivalry. Virginia Tech has owned the Commonwealth Cup for the past few decades. But the Cavaliers have a chance to open a new chapter of the rivalry in this, the first meeting between Tony Elliott and Brent Pry. It hasn't been a great season for Virginia, but the Hoos have proven that they can play with anyone - wins over North Carolina and Duke and extremely close calls with Louisville and Miami serve as evidence.
Virginia Tech is favored in this game and with good reason - the Hokies have had a better season than the Cavaliers. But the records and stats from the previous 11 games are thrown out the window when rivalry week arrives. Virginia can win this game.
Score prediction: Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 27
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