How Virginia Basketball Can Still Make the NCAA Tournament

Aidan Baller | 21 Hours Ago

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

It's safe to say that the 2024-2025 Virginia men's basketball season is off to a tough start. The last time Virginia started 7-5 was the 2021-2022 season, with the Hoos missing the NCAA Tournament. The 7-5 start was the worst start to a season in the Tony Bennett era. 

Team Rankings currently gives Virginia a 1.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament, so the Cavaliers have an uphill battle if they want to go dancing in March. Despite this, according to Team Rankings, there is a path to make the tournament which requires the Hoos to win 15 of their last 19 games to have an 85.8% chance to make the tournament. The other alternative is Virginia wins two or three games in the ACC Tournament, allowing the Hoos to only have to win 12-13 of the regular season games remaining.

With that said, here are five things Virginia needs to change to make the NCAA Tournament. 

Virginia Needs Players or a Player to Step Up 

Just a few years ago, the Cavaliers were anchored by standout players like Reece Beekman, Jayden Gardner, Armaan Franklin, and Kihei Clark—the kind of talent Virginia could certainly use in their lineup today. Looking back a bit further, names like Kyle Guy, De'Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome, and Braxton Key come to mind. However, to keep things grounded, let's focus on the more recent group.

These guys had takeover potential, performances such as Jayden Gardner's 26 points, seven rebounds, and three blocks against Georgia Tech, Reece Beekman's game-winning buzzer-beater against Duke at Cameron Indoor, or Armaan Franklin's 26-point performance against No.5 Baylor. 

In the clutch moments this season and in general, no player on this roster has emerged as a big-time playmaker with takeover ability. Players such as Isaac McKneely, Dai Dai Ames, Jacob Cofie, Elijah Saunders, and recently Taine Murray have shown flashes, but no player has yet to demonstrate themselves as a player capable of leading this team on a run in order to make the NCAA tournament. It's unlikely that one player will emerge as the superstar of the team, but a few different Cavaliers have to be able to step up on any given night to make that game-winning play.

Eliminate the Turnovers 

Under Tony Bennett, the Cavaliers were one of the best teams at holding onto the basketball, a massive factor in their success under his watch. With Bennett at the helm, they had two seasons in which they ranked in the top five in the NCAA in turnovers per game. 

Virginia currently ranks 144th in turnovers per game at 11.8, which needs to drop significantly moving forward. In 2023, Virginia averaged 8.1 turnovers per game, good for fourth nationally. At the pace UVA plays, every turnover is even more costly. The Cavaliers must rein in their turnovers and improve their ball security.

Rebounding Needs to Improve 

Rebounding has plagued the Cavaliers all season with the Hoos having a 73.3% defensive rebounding rate, 149th in the NCAA according to Team Rankings. In the Bahamas against Tennessee and St. Johns, UVA was outrebounded by 17 boards in the two games while giving up a bunch of offensive rebounds and second-chance points. The Hoos need to improve rebounding down the stretch, whether that involves Jacob Cofie, Blake Buchanan, or Anthony Robinson stepping up or the team collectively crashing the boards with aggression on every defensive set. 

All Hands on Deck, Which Includes TJ Power 

The former five-star recruit has disappointed in his first season in Charlottesville, with Power shooting 22.9% from the field and 23.1% from three. The transfer from Duke has been a shooting slump all year and was supposed to be a key contributor to the Virginia offensive upturn this year. Despite the slow start, Power has the capability within him to be a dominant shooter down the stretch, and it will be crucial that he continues to shoot and Coach Ron Sanchez allows him to receive minutes until he has his breakout performance in the orange and blue. Power's three-point prowess can completely change the complexion of the Virginia offense. 

Better Free Throw Shooting, More Free Throw Attempts

Virginia currently ranks 152nd in the NCAA in free throw shooting, which needs to go up if the Cavaliers want to win close games. Those four or five points the Hoos lose on missed free throws can be of enormous detriment at the end of the games. Virginia is shooting at 72.7% from the charity stripe, up from 63.7% in 2023, but still nowhere near good enough. The Cavaliers could also benefit from being more aggressive inside and trying to get to the free throw line more often. UVA ranks near the bottom of Division I men's basketball in free throws attempted (356th). Part of that comes from Virginia's slow pace, but the Hoos also need to embrace contact and play more physical around the rim to get to the foul line with more frequency.

Virginia returns to action on New Year's Eve against NC State. Tipoff between the Cavaliers and Wolfpack at John Paul Jones Arena is set for 12pm on December 31st and the game will be televised on ESPN2.

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