Previewing the SEC/ACC Challenge Matchups: Which Conference Will Prevail?

William Smythe | 19 Hours Ago

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With the second-annual SEC/ACC Challenge taking place this week, we're going to rank the top 10 matchups we're most excited to watch, give in-depth previews for those 10 contests, and give a prediction for the winners of all 16 games in the 2024 SEC/ACC Challenge.

1. Duke vs. Auburn, Wednesday @ 9:15 PM ET on ESPN

This might be the crown jewel of the non-conference slate. It’s a crying shame that Auburn isn’t No. 1 in the polls after notching three top-15 wins over the likes of Houston, Iowa State, and North Carolina. A win over a surprising Memphis team in the Maui Invitational has cemented the Tigers (7-0) as the team to beat in college basketball, yet the media voters have given the edge to Kansas — undefeated yet winning in a less convincing fashion. Coach Bruce Pearl couldn’t be happier that he retained fifth-year center Johni Broome (20.7 PPG, 12.9) — a legitimate National Player of the Year candidate who will give Duke fits in the interior.

The Blue Devils (5-2) ought to be desperate for a non-conference statement even after trouncing Arizona on the road, as the Wildcats simply haven’t performed at a high level, having also fallen to Oklahoma and Wisconsin in the last two weeks. While the Blue Devils couldn’t deliver the final blows against Kentucky and Kansas, I think they will adjust their game plan to ease the burden carried by freshmen Cooper Flagg (15.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG) and Kon Knueppel (13.4 PPG) in the final minutes, assuming this is a wire-to-wire matchup.

This counts as perhaps the only time I have cheered for the Blue Devils. Yes, I can temporarily support them due to 1) “double-dribble” comments from Auburn fans after the Final Four matchup in 2019 and 2) the communal objective of the ACC/SEC Challenge. Will Scheyer listen to Dukie faithful and allow his other five/four-star freshmen some minutes, or will he keep his rotation intact? Coaching decisions will play a major factor in this blockbuster matchup.

Another note: Auburn is ranked No. 1 by KenPom in terms of offensive efficiency, while Duke is first on the defensive side. Something’s gotta give.

Winner: Duke

2. North Carolina vs. Alabama, Wednesday @ 7:15 PM on ESPN

In a rematch from last season’s Sweet Sixteen, North Carolina will look to avenge their loss to fourth-seeded Alabama on their home court. The backcourt battle between two fifth-year All-American guards — the Crimson Tide’s Mark Sears (16.7 PPG) and the Tar Heels’ RJ Davis (18.4 PPG) — will be appointment television, while the pace of play will almost certainly be blistering. North Carolina (4-3) is currently ranked ninth in adjusted offensive tempo as per KenPom, while Alabama sits at fourth; in layman’s terms, these guard-laden teams can fly.

I worry that Alabama is too deep in the frontcourt and can bury the Heels’ forwards. If Carolina wants to win, they’ll need a spectacular night from Davis and a raucous showing from the wine-and-cheese crowd in the Dean Dome. I’ll roll with the Tide, though, who have bounced back from that early loss at Purdue with wins over Illinois, Houston, and Rutgers.

Other notes: ex-Rutgers center Cliff Omoruyi (2.9 BPG) chose the Crimson Tide over the Heels this offseason, as did sophomore forward Jarin Stevenson (5.3 PPG) — a former U.Va. target whose parents attended Carolina — two years ago.

Winner: Alabama

3. Clemson vs. Kentucky, Tuesday @ 9:30 PM ET on ESPN

This isn’t the Kentucky of old, so don’t look for one-and-dones within the Wildcat lineup. Coach Mark Pope has taken the reins from John Calipari and has flourished in the first few weeks of the inaugural year at his alma mater, securing his first hallmark win against Duke. All five starters are fifth-years who did not suit up for Kentucky (7-0) last season. Dayton’s three-point specialist Koby Brea is an astounding 25 of 41 (61.0%) from behind the arc, while Oklahoma transfer Otega Oweh (16.5 PPG) has separated himself as a do-it-all player for Pope.

Clemson — coming off of a wild Elite Eight run — has looked the part of a top-five ACC contender, with returning veteran and headband sensation Ian Schieffelin (12.5 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 3.6 APG) doing all he can to replace the production of an All-ACC performer in PJ Hall. The Tigers (7-1) did lose by 13 to a Boise State team that lost to Boston College — who lost to Dartmouth — so the jury’s still out on them.

Littlejohn Coliseum should be jumping for a home date against a perennial powerhouse, who has arguably improved under a coach not named Calipari. It will take an all-hands-on-deck effort from the Tigers to upset the scorching Wildcats. Nonetheless, I believe Clemson will get the ACC back on track with a victory against a retooled Kentucky. Will their thinner rotation come back to bite them against the Wildcats’ depth, though? 

Winner: Clemson

4. Louisville vs. Ole Miss, Tuesday @ 9:00 PM ET on ACC Network

Talk about teams with new faces. Louisville does not return a single scholarship player, while Ole Miss did a five-for-five over the offseason — five players out, five in. The Cardinals (5-2) have already surpassed their win total from 2022-23, having throttled formerly-ranked Indiana and scraped by West Virginia in the Battle 4 Atlantis before falling to an undefeated Oklahoma in the final. Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn (14.6 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.0 SPG) has starred in a new uniform and has caught the nation’s attention through his defensive play; Hepburn is the Division I leader in steals per game, having recorded a ridiculous seven takeaways against Indiana.

Ole Miss (6-1), moreover, looks poised to compete in the top half of a stacked SEC. The Rebels’ roster is littered with scorers and transfers who have fit within Coach Chris Beard’s system. Despite a two-point loss to No. 13 Purdue in the championship game of the Rady Children’s Invitational, Ole Miss defeated a talented BYU squad in overtime and will be seeking a bounceback on the road. The story of this matchup is most notably the quest for consistency within two programs that are showing signs of progress after so many years of disappointment.

I’ll lean Louisville in this one. Ironically, I wasn’t convinced by their 28-point win against a preseason darling in Indiana, and I believe that the Cardinals could struggle to defend the myriad offensive options Beard now has at his disposal. People are, however, finally excited to watch a tradition-rich program (Louisville) take the court after multiple years of agony. If they do win, a spot in the top-25 is in the cards for the Cardinals.

Winner: Louisville

5. Pitt at Mississippi State, Wednesday @ 9:15 ET on SEC Network

In arguably the most underrated matchup of this challenge, Coach Jeff Capel’s Panthers will hope to continue their hot start to the season in a hostile environment at Mississippi State. Pitt (7-1), who trounced West Virginia and hit a buzzer-beater to knock off Ohio State in Columbus, has received the production it desired from guards Ish Leggett (18.4 PPG) and Jaland Lowe (16.6 PPG) thus far. We’ve been waiting for the Panthers to turn the corner in the ACC, and this might just be the year that they push for a top-three finish in the conference. Transfers in forward Cam Corhen (12.1 PPG) and guard Damian Dunn (11.1) have established themselves as invaluable additions, as well.

You always know what you’re getting from Mississippi State defensively, but could that identity be compromised this season? The Bulldogs (6-1) just allowed 87 points to Butler in a ten-point defeat; even if the Big East sleepers have surprised many with a 6-1 start, it’s rare air for a Chris Jans-coached team to allow an offensive explosion like that. Regardless, sophomore guard Josh Hubbard (19.1 PPG) has picked up where he left off from last season as this team’s clear offensive alpha, and prized transfer Riley Kugel (10.0 PPG) — a former Kansas pledge — might be returning to his old form.

I don’t particularly love Pitt’s chances to steal one away at Mississippi State. Now searching for a bounceback win at home, a tenacious Bulldog team will swarm Pitt’s guards in an effort to slow down the three-headed monster of Leggett, Lowe, and Dunn. 

Winner: Mississippi State

6. Wake Forest at Texas A&M, Tuesday @ 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This matchup will go under the radar. Both preseason picks to finish in the top-five of their respective conferences, the Demon Deacons (7-2) and Aggies (6-2) are now seeking résumé-building wins to keep their names relevant come March. Wake Forest defeated an ascending Michigan team in Greensboro, yet they also fell by double-digits against Xavier and Florida. A&M’s wins against Ohio State, Creighton, and Rutgers might not age well for them when the tournament selection time arrives, and losses to UCF and Oregon (who has pleasantly surprised, though) will be a stain on the non-conference record.

A draw against the Aggies on the road isn’t ideal for Coach Steve Forbes. Wake’s frontcourt woes might not be as exposed against a smaller but athletic A&M, but they’ll still need a big night from senior guard Hunter Sallis (16.8 PPG). Apologies for keeping the SEC bias moving; however, I think the Aggies take this one in College Station. Has Wake taken a leap? I don’t think so.

Winner: Texas A&M

7. NC State vs. Texas, Wednesday @ 9:15 PM ET on ESPN2

Is NC State ready to take a leap after their miraculous Final Four run? Hold your horses. The Wolfpack (5-2) finally encountered some resistance with an 0-2 finish in the Rady’s Children’s Invitational, losing to then-No. 13 Purdue and BYU by 10 and nine, respectively. As of this juncture, there’s a near-even scoring split between State’s returners and the three portal additions that Coach Kevin Keatts landed from Louisville, Bowling Green, and Georgetown. A recovery from another Louisville portaler — junior guard Mike James (12.6 PPG in 2023-24) — might arrive in time for tip against Texas Wednesday. It remains to be seen how he affects this Wolfpack roster, one which now carries loftier expectations in Raleigh.

I’m not really sure how to feel about Texas (6-1), either. The Longhorns have wins over Syracuse and an A-10 contender in St. Joseph’s, but they also lost to Ohio State to kick off the season. Five-star freshman and guard Tre Johnson (21.1 PPG) will almost certainly head to the lottery after all is said and done in Austin this season, as he’s paced Coach Rodney Terry’s talented roster. I’d look for Texas to gain some momentum once known scorers Tramon Mark (16.2 PPG at Arkansas in 2023-24) and point guard Jordan Pope (17.6 PPG at Oregon State in 2023-24) fully mesh in a new system. 

While I’ve been harsh on the Wolfpack, I won’t overlook the home-court advantage of PNC Arena. State has throttled the ‘Hoos in their last two meetings in Raleigh. The Longhorns should feel the wrath of Wolfpack nation, and the veteran group that Keatts possesses leads me to believe that they can go blow-for-blow with an individually-talented Texas team.

Winner: NC State

8. Virginia at Florida, Wednesday @ 7:15 ET on ESPN2

Hopefully, Cory Alexander isn’t calling this one. After besting the Gators by one last season, the ‘Hoos (5-2) will travel to Gainesville for the fourth meeting between the schools since 2011. While playing limited competition outside of Florida State and Wake Forest, Florida (8-0) has trounced every one of their opponents — including the two ACC programs — by double-digit margins. An eight-man rotation featuring All-SEC guard Walter Clayton Jr. (17.4 PPG) and a Final Four participant in FAU’s Alijah Martin (15.1 PPG) will be difficult to slow down, especially in Gainesville. The Gators have flown under the radar, but they look elite.

Virginia’s outings against high-level competition haven’t gone smoothly. Hopefully, a bounceback beatdown of Holy Cross at home will reinvigorate the confidence of a roster that has relied more heavily on its guards, most notably sophomore Dai Dai Ames (9.1 PPG) and junior revelation Andrew Rohde (10.0 PPG, 3.0 PPG); if Virginia can’t get reliable production out of former five-star TJ Power (2.4 PPG), however, it must rely on the assumption that Rohde will continue his improved play into December.

A hostile environment combined with a top-15 team bodes incredibly poorly for Virginia. Unfortunately, I’m choosing the Gators to avenge last season’s loss, and recent ‘Hoo teams haven’t done well in major non-conference matchups on the road outside of a win two years ago at Michigan. I don’t want to make this pick, but this will be another non-conference loss suffered by interim head coach Ron Sanchez. 

Winner: Florida

9. Syracuse at Tennessee, Tuesday @ 7:30 ET on ESPN

This is a lofty task for the Orange. In a battle of similar color schemes, Syracuse will take on a top-five opponent in Coach Rick Barnes’ Tennessee. The Volunteers (7-0) have blitzed every opponent they have faced thus far, including Louisville, Baylor, and, unfortunately, Virginia. Those three contests resulted in a 59-point differential in their favor. Fifth-year guard Chaz Lanier (17.7 PPG) has undertaken the tall task of chasing guard Dalton Knecht’s scoring production last season, while the defense has remained vicious.

Things haven’t gone as swimmingly in year two of Coach Adrian Autry’s tenure at Syracuse, as the Orange (4-2) barely survived four “buy game” opponents at home and then lost their two major matchups against Texas and Texas Tech at Madison Square Garden. Leading scorer JJ Starling (19.8 PPG) will almost certainly be staring down a matchup against an elite perimeter defender in Jahmai Mashack, who held the ‘Hoos’ Isaac McKneely to a season-low four points on one of six shooting. 

Tennessee’s trademark physicality and athleticism will be far too much for the Orange, and a road environment makes things that much worse. Syracuse probably wishes they had the likes of Vanderbilt or LSU at home instead. This is a brutal draw for a program hoping to reestablish its footing as a national powerhouse, but it’s also a chance to build their résumé for March!

Winner: Tennessee

10. Florida State at LSU, Tuesday @ 9:00 PM ET on SEC Network

Surprised to not see Notre Dame/Georgia or Miami/Arkansas here? Me too. The ‘Canes have fallen off of a cliff, while the Irish’s four-game losing streak isn’t inspiring either. Both Florida State (7-1) and LSU (6-1) have only one loss through 13 combined games, and let’s not dwell on the fact that the Seminoles have lost to the one Power Five opponent (Florida) on their schedule so far. It’s a matchup of two programs far removed from their successes in the late 2010s. The Tigers are arguably a bottom-three team in the SEC simply on account of the depth in the conference, yet they’re looking promising with wins over Kansas State and UCF already under their belt.

In looking at the Seminoles, it’s senior guard Jamir Watkins (17.3 PPG) that attracts all of the attention. He has steadily improved across his stops at VCU and Florida State and has grown more efficient from the field, as well. A promising youngster for Coach Leonard Hamilton — sophomore forward Taylor Bol Bowen (7.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG) — has shown flashes as an around-the-rim finisher and as a rim protector on the defensive end. The Seminoles could end up crashing and burning as they face stiffer competition, though.

The Tigers have proven that potential exists in Baton Rouge after their two major-conference wins, and I’ll give them the edge over Florida State. Sure, they lost by 11 to Pitt, but LSU has more of a polished résumé at this point in the season and will be defending their own court.

Winner: LSU

The Rest: 

11. Notre Dame at Georgia, Tuesday @ 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU

Winner: Georgia

12. Miami vs. Arkansas, Tuesday @ 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Winner: Arkansas

13. Georgia Tech at Oklahoma, Tuesday @ 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU

Winner: Oklahoma

14. Boston College vs. South Carolina, Tuesday @ 7:00 PM ET on ACC Network

Winner: Boston College

15. Cal at Missouri, Tuesday @ 7:00 PM ET on SEC Network

Winner: Missouri

16. Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt, Wednesday @ 9:15 PM ET on ACC Network

Winner: Vanderbilt

SEC/ACC Challenge Prediction: ACC 5, SEC 11