Ranking the SEC/ACC Challenge Matchups: Which Conference Will Prevail?

William Smythe | Oct 25, 2024

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

After 24 years of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, the conference made the decision to take on the SEC — one of the strongest in Power Five hoops — starting last season. Let’s analyze the top-10 matchups and preview which conference will prevail in the second year of the SEC/ACC Challenge. A tie is a possibility, as well, considering the 7-7 finish in 2023.

See the full schedule and TV designations for all 16 matchups of the second-annual SEC/ACC Challenge: 2024 ACC/SEC Basketball Challenge Schedule, Matchups, TV Designations

1. North Carolina vs. Alabama

In a rematch from last season’s Sweet Sixteen, North Carolina will look to avenge their loss to fourth-seeded Alabama on their home court. The backcourt battle between two fifth-year All-American guards — the Crimson Tide’s Mark Sears (21.5 PPG) and the Tar Heels’ RJ Davis (21.2 PPG) — will be appointment television, while the world will see whether Alabama’s wildly successful offseason translates to resume-building victories in November and December. Other notes: ex-Rutgers center Cliff Omoruyi (2.9 BPG) chose the Crimson Tide over the Heels this offseason, as did sophomore forward Jarin Stevenson (5.3 PPG) — a former U.Va. target whose parents attended Carolina — two years ago. There’s plenty of recent history between these two schools.

I worry that Alabama is too deep in the frontcourt and possesses fewer weaknesses. If Carolina wants to win, they’ll need a spectacular night from Davis and a raucous showing from the wine-and-cheese crowd in the Dean Dome. I’ll roll with the Tide, though.

Winner: Alabama

2. Duke vs. Auburn

This one will be tough as nails. Both rosters project to be elite all-around, yet the defensive tenacity will be something to monitor; centers Khaman Maluach (Duke freshman) and Johni Broome (Auburn fifth-year) are known defensive forces, albeit one hasn’t yet played a college game. I’m tempted to put this ahead of Carolina-Alabama in terms of how exciting a high-level non-conference game in Cameron can be. After losing to Yale in the NCAA Tournament, though, Auburn will be out for blood and keen to replicate Arizona’s early-season win over Duke at their home court last year. This will be a major litmus test for No. 1 overall freshman Cooper Flagg, Maluach, and other newcomers on Coach Jon Scheyer’s revamped roster.

Duke’s depth and well-roundedness will give them the edge against a battle-tested Auburn team. This counts as perhaps the only time I have cheered for the Blue Devils. Yes, I can temporarily support them due to 1) “double-dribble” comments from Auburn fans after the Final Four matchup in 2019 and 2) the communal objective of the ACC/SEC Challenge.

Winner: Duke

3. Virginia at Florida

Hopefully, Cory Alexander isn’t calling this one. After besting the Gators by one last season, the ‘Hoos will travel to Gainesville for the fourth meeting between the schools since 2011. Coach Todd Golden’s crew lost three starters in All-SEC guard Zyon Pullin, forward Tyrese Samuel, and center Micah Handlogten (injury), yet he managed to retain another All-SEC performer — guard Walter Clayton Jr. — while nabbing a key part of Florida Atlantic’s 2023 Final Four run in guard Alijah Martin. Florida’s not-so-secret weapon could be 7’9” freshman center Olivier Rioux, who has five inches on fellow Canadian and two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey. If he is mobile enough in transition, the Gators won’t have to ask for much from him but to dunk and rim-protect. This won’t be Virginia’s first major test of the season, with dates against Tennessee and St. John’s or Baylor preceding the Florida matchup.

A hostile environment combined with a top-25 preseason roster means advantage Florida. Unfortunately, I’m choosing the Gators to avenge last season’s loss to the ‘Hoos; I don’t want to make this pick, but there will be some non-conference losses for Ron Sanchez in his interim season.

Winner: Florida

4. Miami vs. Arkansas

Yes, Miami stunk last year. Arkansas also put together a disappointing campaign. However, excitement has built around both programs following let-downs in 2023-24. Coach John Calipari has finally left the University of Kentucky and has essentially established Lexington-West in Fayetteville, having brought three ex-Wildcats over with him while flipping several Kentucky pledges in the process. The 2023-24 AAC Player of the Year Johnell Davis (18.2 PPG) — another Florida Atlantic product — should have the keys to the backcourt alongside former No. 1 overall recruit D.J. Wagner (9.9 PPG), who is looking for a change of scenery after an underwhelming first year in the SEC. Miami saw some startling personnel losses to the portal, but a core of veterans in Nijel Pack (13.3 PPG) and Matthew Cleveland (13.7 PPG) is enough to restore hope for another tournament run. Freshman five-star Jalil Bethea will also get opportunities to shine early.

In a flashy matchup of two teams looking for quick improvement, I’ll give the edge to Calipari and the star-studded Razorbacks. Miami should be a team that figures it out closer to the start of ACC play. I worry that a roster with only three returning players will take some time to gel. Then again, Arkansas faces the same issue of roster discontinuity.

Winner: Arkansas

5. Wake Forest at Texas A&M

This matchup will go under the radar. Overshadowed by the bigger dogs in their conferences, the Demon Deacons and Aggies have nonetheless boasted successful offseasons; each will return at least three starters, with guards Hunter Sallis (18.0 PPG) and Wade Taylor IV (19.1 PPG) both arguably top-ten at their position. To up the ante, Texas A&M’s head coach Buzz Williams — poached from Virginia Tech — is no stranger to the ACC. Both teams will also feature two Virginia natives in their starting lineups, as Aggie forward Henry Coleman III (8.8 PPG) and Demon Deacon center Efton Reid III (9.6 PPG) surely have some history from their high school days in Richmond. This would be a critical road win for a Wake Forest team that, albeit having produced two ACC Players of the Year in the last three seasons, still hasn’t made a tournament appearance under head coach Steve Forbes.

Apologies for keeping the SEC bias moving, but I think Texas A&M takes this one in College Station. I believe they’re primed for a top-five finish in the conference. 

Winner: Texas A&M

6. Clemson vs. Kentucky

This isn’t the Kentucky of old, so don’t look for one-and-dones within the Wildcat lineup. Coach Mark Pope has taken the reins from Calipari and reshaped his roster to be reflective of transfer experience. All five presumptive starters are fifth-years who did not suit up for Kentucky last season. As for Clemson, they’ll be riding high after an Elite Eight run arguably saved Coach Brad Brownell’s job, or at least bought him a few years to get back to the postseason. Some important pieces are returning — senior forward Ian Schieffelin (10.1 PPG) and graduate guard Chase Hunter (12.9 PPG)  — and the transfer portal additions flew under the radar. There’s a decent chance that the Tigers’ run last year was a flash in the pan, however, considering that their last ACC matchup before the tournament resulted in a 21-point loss to Boston College.

Nonetheless, I believe Clemson will get the ACC back on track with a victory against a retooled Kentucky team. Littlejohn Coliseum should be jumping for a home date against a perennial powerhouse, even if Calipari isn’t on the sideline.

Winner: Clemson

7. NC State vs. Texas

Is NC State ready to take a leap after their miraculous Final Four run? Hold your horses. If Isaac McKneely had sunk his second free throw with six seconds remaining, we wouldn’t be having this conversation about the Wolfpack. In 2024-25, Coach Kevin Keatts will likely roll out two returning starters from a roster that finished 17-14 in the regular season — good for 10th in the ACC. I imagine they’ll hover around that same spot this season, even with higher expectations surrounding them. As for Texas, they ought to be improved with a 15th ranked transfer class coming in, according to 247Sports. Fifth-year Tramon Mark (Arkansas) and junior Jordan Pope (Oregon State) can fill it up, and senior forward Arthur Kaluma (Kansas State) was a key contributor at Creighton before mysteriously leaving for the Wildcats last year. 

While I’ve been harsh on the Wolfpack, I won’t overlook the home-court advantage of PNC Arena. State has throttled the ‘Hoos in their last two meetings in Raleigh. The Longhorns should feel the wrath of Wolfpack nation, and, despite their losses in the offseason, it’s highly possible that Keatts continues their late-season momentum with an early win against a tough SEC opponent.

Winner: NC State

8. Louisville vs. Ole Miss

Talk about teams with new faces. Louisville does not return a single scholarship player, while Ole Miss did a five-for-five over the offseason — five players out, five in. There’s a palpable buzz surrounding the Cardinals that hasn’t existed since Chris Mack reached the AP Poll’s No. 1 spot in 2019-20. Since then, they’ve won 38 games and lost 78. Mack’s now with the College of Charleston, coincidentally the last stop for now-Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey. A rebuild won’t be as difficult as expected thanks to the Cardinals’ pedigree and NIL resources, so they should see an immediate improvement from an eight-win season in 2023-24. Sun Belt Player of the Year Terrence Edwards II (JMU), Pac-12 Sixth-Man of the Year Koren Johnson (Washington), and three-year starter Chucky Hepburn (Wisconsin) should give Kelsey an immediate boost. As for Ole Miss, they will not fly under-the-radar this year; a well-rounded transfer class may propel this program on to new heights. 

With so little production returning — and the transfer classes similar in talent — I’ll lean Louisville here. People are finally excited to watch a tradition-rich program take the court after multiple years of agony. Who knows, they might be coming into this one with wins over Tennessee or Indiana already under their belt.

Winner: Louisville

9. Syracuse at Tennessee

This is a tall task for the Orange. In a battle of similar color schemes, Syracuse will take on one of the more consistent units in the SEC in Coach Rick Barnes’ Tennessee. There’s some reason for excitement in Syracuse, however, with five-star freshman Donnie Freeman slated to take the court alongside a high-ceiling player in returning forward Chris Bell (12.0 PPG). Year One under new coach Adrian Autry actually went fairly well for the Orange, with a 20-12 campaign (11-9 ACC) their first 20-win season since 2018-19. In terms of the Volunteers, a slight re-evaluation of personnel might be in the cards; the frontcourt looks thin after the losses of two key bigs to the portal, and guard Zakai Zeigler (11.8 PPG) is the only real mainstay Barnes has kept in Knoxville. Where will they go for scoring after the departure of Dalton Knecht, the reigning SEC Player of the Year?

Tennessee’s trademark physicality will be too much for the Orange, though, and a win at Thompson-Boling is hard to come by. Syracuse probably wishes they had the likes of Georgia or LSU at home, not the Volunteers on the road. Brutal scheduling. 

Winner: Tennessee

10. Pitt at Mississippi State

In another underrated matchup, Coach Jeff Capel’s Panthers will hope to surprise some folks early with a road win against a team that reached the Big Dance last year. Mississippi State has crawled its way out of mediocrity over the past few seasons, having beaten two top-10 teams at home last season — Tennessee and Auburn — the former of which they also torched in the SEC Quarterfinals. It’s not fun playing against the defensive-oriented Bulldogs, who also happen to return a potent scorer in sophomore All-SEC selection Josh Hubbard (17.1 PPG). The Panthers will have to lean on a backcourt of high-impact guards in sophomore Jaland Lowe (9.6 PPG) and Ish Leggett (12.3 PPG), both primed for improvement this season. Limited by their unproven frontcourt, the Panthers will have to bring their A-game to Starkville.

I don’t particularly love Pitt’s chances to steal one away at Mississippi State. I love what Bulldog coach Chris Jans did over the offseason, and I recognize that the Panthers might have some growing pains without All-ACC performer Blake Hinson (18.5 PPG) and lottery pick Carlton Carrington (13.8 PPG) in the fold.

Winner: Mississippi State

The Rest:

 11. Notre Dame at Georgia
Winner: Notre Dame

12. Cal at Missouri
Winner: Missouri

13. Georgia Tech at Oklahoma
Winner: Georgia Tech

14. Boston College vs. South Carolina
Winner: South Carolina

15. Florida State at LSU
Winner: Florida State

16. Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Winner: Virginia Tech

Result: ACC 8, SEC 8. It’s a tie again!