Round Robin: Evaluating UVA Basketball at Near Midway Point of the Season

Matt Newton, Aidan Baller, Henry Pallatroni, Val Prochaska | 20 Hours Ago

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

We're nearly halfway through the Virginia basketball season and although the Cavaliers have only played three ACC games, the trends and traits they have displayed so far are likely to define the rest of the season. So, what have we learned about this year's Hoos under the watch of interim head coach Ron Sanchez? Four members of the Virginia Cavaliers On SI writing staff - Aidan Baller, Henry Pallatroni, Val Prochaska, and Matt Newton - are going to answer some questions to give their evaluation of the team so far.

Which player has been the most pleasant surprise this season?

Aidan: The senior from Auckland, New Zealand, Taine Murray, has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. In a 64-62 loss against Memphis, Murray came to play, tying a career-high with 14 points on 5/9 shooting. In the following game against American, the senior knocked down three threes, displaying himself as a versatile threat who can shoot from range and drive fiercely to the basket. It's nice to see a player finish out his fourth year in Charlottesville and become a true product of the pack-line defense, something that will be less and less common in the new era of college basketball. 

Henry: Elijah Saunders. The SDSU transfer had a solid sophomore campaign in his first full season as a starter for the Aztecs in the 23-24 season (6.2 ppg in 20.2 mpg), but the leap he has taken in his first season with Virginia has been nothing short of impressive. Saunders has arguably been the best player for the Cavaliers through 14 games (12.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG), and certainly has been the last month, averaging 17 ppg across the last five Virginia contests. Saunders' continued rise as a star for the Cavalier offense will be integral to any Virginia success across the second half of the season.

Val: If you are fan of college sports, then watching players grow and mature during their four years at Good Ol’ U is probably one of the reasons.   Of course, with 5th-year COVID eligibility and player movement of our new NIL, free-transfer era, it can seem a little bewildering.  Players have seemingly been around forever, only not with the schools where they were first loved.

Andrew Rohde is a throwback to an earlier time where we got to see someone develop over time and revel in their successes.  Rohde transferred to Virginia, a much over-hyped transfer from St Thomas, a school I’d never heard of.  (I’m pretty sure I’d never heard of the Summit Conference either.)  He gave Virginia 6’6” size in the backcourt and he was supposed to be a slasher with Isaac McKneely range.  Of course last year he didn’t give Virginia either.  Projected to be a wing, he was Virginia's back up point guard to Reece Beekman and he started from game one. It didn’t go well.  Rohde shot 26% from deep, 44% from the free throw line, and had eight games where he failed to score a point.  He was the locus of Cavalier Nation’s ire and anger of a disheartening season.

What a difference a year makes.  Dai Dai Ames and Jalen Warley were brought in to run the team from the point, but Warley scattered upon Tony Bennett’s departure and Ames somehow fell into Ron Sanchez’ doghouse and has not played well enough to get himself out.  Andrew Rohde, by default since Elijah Gertrude is lost for the season and who knows about Christian Bliss, is UVA's only point guard.  This isn’t his natural position, and yet he’s lighting it up from deep, converting at a 46% clip and he’s no longer embarrassing himself at the charity stripe (75%). He’s doubled his scoring from last year and while he’s still good for a head-scratching turnover a game, he handled the full court pressure that Louisville and NC State threw at him.  Rohde’s made the leap this year.  He’s playing out of position to be sure, but he’s become the most intriguing player on the roster for me.

Matt: I'll take the two freshmen. For all the changes Ron Sanchez hasn't made, he's at least diverted from Tony Bennett's resistance to playing first years. Jacob Cofie looks to be a star in the making and Ishan Sharma is getting extremely valuable experience. Both players have shown flashes of brilliance early in their careers. Whatever happens at the end of this season, it's imperative that the Cavaliers find a way to retain both Cofie and Sharma and build around them moving forward.

Who has been the biggest disappointment this season?

Aidan: TJ Power has unfortunately struggled, shooting 21.4% from three-point land this season compared to 35.7% last season with the Blue Devils. Power can be a lights-out shooter for the Hoos, but he has to show it. With so much potential to be a massive asset in Charlottesville, it's essential that Ron Sanchez and staff continue to give Power minutes until he sorts it out.

Henry: The biggest disappointment of the season has been redshirt freshman Christian Bliss, who has not played a game for the Hoos after suffering a minor foot injury in the preseason. For a team that could desperately use another adept ball handler, the disappointment arises in the lack of any real updates regarding the 6’4” guards timetable for stepping foot onto the hardcourt. Ron Sanchez gave a hint of an update into what seems to be a murky situation with Bliss in this week’s ACC Zoom call, saying that Bliss is “not feeling good enough to get on the floor” and characterizing it as a “player decision.”  Whether that means Bliss is holding out to transfer after the season or actually doesn’t feel good enough to step on the court is impossible to discern, but either way, his zero minutes logged for Virginia are a disappointment.

Val: Blake Buchanan.  This was the year that it was supposed to come together for BB.  He spent the summer with UVa’s legendary strength and conditioning coach, Mike Curtis. Yeah, he put on weight, and presumably muscle, but Buchanan is still not strong enough to hold the post against, well, anybody.  If you’re not uber-athletic, you gotta be strong and he’s not.  I can see what Tony Bennett saw in him.  He’s smart, reads the game well and he’s nimble in the high hedge.  Given that Virginia doesn’t really contest boards on the offensive end, he’s a reasonable offensive rebounder. He’s a great passer out of the high post, but he doesn’t have a shot so all he can do is dunk at the rim.  Seriously, he just pushes it off his hand.  And while Buchanan fouls less than Mamadi Diakite or Jay Huff did at this point in their careers, he’s still good for a moving screen once a game.  He wiped out a Taine Murray three against Louisville when the game was still close.

My former editor at HoosPlace estimates that it takes a big 1000 minutes to learn the nuances of the Pack Line defense.  Buchanan, since he played a first year, was in line to have that by the time ACC tourney play rolled around.  Buchanan’s been dropped from the starting lineup the last four games for Jacob Cofie.  I’m not sure Buchanan is going to get the playing time to learn to be an effective contributor this season.

Matt: My colleagues have nailed it with Power, Bliss, and Buchanan being disappointing this season, but I'll add Dai Dai Ames to that list due to his limited impact recently. When Virginia's point guard situation turned critical with Jalen Warley transferring and Christian Bliss still not playing, I and everyone else assumed Ames would be playing upwards of 30+ minutes each night. That was the case early on, but now he has played nine and ten minutes in the last two games, respectively, scoring two total points. Unless Ames has suffered another injury, this is a very disappointing development heading into the bulk of ACC play.

The team is not just going to magically shoot the 3 at 40% every night. But what improvement can the Hoos realistically make this season?

Aidan: It's tough to fix anything shooting-related midseason or being a more physical rebounding team, but one thing Virginia can realistically fix is turnovers. The Cavaliers currently rank 280th in team turnovers per offensive possession, turning the ball over on 16.7% of possessions this season. Virginia also ranks 108th in turnovers per game with 11.4. With fewer possessions due to Virginia's slow pace of play, turnovers are extra costly. Emphasizing being smart with the ball is a thought these players can and need to carry moving forward.

Henry: It’s no secret that the Virginia offense is quite bad. They lack an elite bucket-getter, regularly go minutes without scoring even against lesser competition, and currently have the lowest points per game in the ACC at 61.4, nearly 8 points less than the next worst offense down at Wake Forest. Ron Sanchez can’t magically add another guard to the UVA roster for the second half of the season, but what can be corrected, or at least improved upon, is Virginia’s struggle with turnovers. They surprisingly won the turnover battle in their win against NC State, who lead the ACC with a +3.71 turnover margin, which hopefully marks a step in the right direction for a team that currently sits 16th of 18 in the ACC with a -1.64 turnover deficit. This Virginia offense isn’t exactly explosive, so being disciplined and limiting turnovers will be vitally important in order to stick around with some of the better offenses in the ACC.

Val: Well, before the Louisville game, Virginia was shooting the three-ball at a 38.5% clip, which is top 30 in the country.  So they're already doing that well enough, and it’s still not sufficient.  Nights against Villanova and second-halves vs NC State will only happen two or three more times this season.  The Cavaliers are taking three more a game this year, up to 21.5 attempts. I think that number has to increase.  Taine Murray, who was relatively hot going into the Louisville game, passed on two wide-open threes.  He’d had success his previous two games against NC State and American driving to the rim from the arc, but not this time.  UVA has to take those threes.

The other option is that Virginia has to run more.  Elijah Saunders has had two nice breaks over the last two games, breaks that are of the kind it usually takes Virginia an entire season to accumulate.  The Cavaliers are getting pounded on their defensive glass as it is, maybe task Saunders or Murray to leak out as the shot goes up.

Matt: I like Val's suggestion to run more. There was a lot of discussion in the offseason of UVA pushing the pace a bit more, but that hasn't really materialized. With the Cavaliers seriously lacking in individual playmakers, they simply are not going to put enough pressure on opposing defenses in their normal half-court sets. Virginia doesn't have to turn into UNC, but take a few more chances on 4-on-3 or 3-on-2 opportunities and see what happens.

Elijah Saunders and Isaac McKneely are the two most reliable scorers. Who can step up as the #3 reliably?

Aidan: Jacob Cofie is most likely to emerge as the third option as the Cavaliers continue to move into ACC play. As Cofie continues to rapidly gain experience, the freshman will continue to gain confidence and emerge as Virginia’s concrete threat near the basket as a shooter and a rebounder.

Henry: Nobody jumps off the page, but Andrew Rohde makes the most sense as the pick here. With Virginia’s lack of talent at the guard position, Rohde has been afforded a career high 29 mpg for the Hoos and has shown flashes of the offensive talent that saw him average 17 ppg in his 22-23 season with St. Thomas, Minnesota of the Summit League. Rohde leads the team in efficiency from beyond the arc, shooting an impressive 45% from three, and is third on the roster with 9.1 ppg. Additionally, the 6’6” guard has shown confidence in getting into the lane and finding some tough finishes at the rim. He also leads the team with 3.2 assists per game.

Val: No one.  Not at this point.  And that’s why this team is sitting at 8-6 and 1-2 in the ACC.  Murray and Rohde are showing signs of life, and it’s a positive development, but really, they are replacement ACC players.  They ought to be the 7th and 8th men off the bench to provide the spark winning teams need.  Instead, they are starters.  Jacob Cofie, who is promising, is nevertheless averaging just 7 ppg against non-cupcakes with just his 12-point performance against Villanova as the only time he reached double figures against quality competition. 

Matt: If it's not going to be Ames or Rohde, I'd probably have to agree with Aidan and go with Jacob Cofie. I hesitate to say that a freshman forward will be a feature part of UVA's offense, but Cofie has at least shown some signs of being willing and capable of scoring at multiple spots on the floor. I think the key will be to get him going from three-point range again. After hitting five threes in his first three games, Cofie has hit only two triples since then and he seems less eager to take those outside shots. Cofie regaining confidence in his perimeter shooting could propel him to be Virginia's third reliable scorer.

Is this team going to the NCAA Tournament?

Aidan: Virginia’s chances of making the tournament are now .6%, according to TeamRankings. The Hoos will need a miracle, and based on current results, I don’t see them having one of the most dramatic turnarounds in sports history.

Henry: Anything’s possible, but unfortunately it’s a far-fetched dream that UVA makes the Big Dance in March. Let’s look at this simply; Virginia is 8-6 and just lost by 20, at home, to Louisville. Currently sitting at 118th in the most recent NET rankings, it’s hard to see the 24-25 Cavaliers finding even close to enough wins to receive an at-large bid to the tournament. Barring a miracle in the ACC Tournament, it’s tough to see a sudden turnaround in fortune for Ron Sanchez and Co.

Val: No. [Shakes head.]  

At this point, I think it’s fair to ask whether Bennett left because of the state of college sports, or whether he left because he saw the state of this team.  There are more Top 100 recruits on this team – six, and that’s not including Bliss who was a four-star – than at any time during the Bennett era.  The defense is simply not a game-winner any more.  Sure, Virginia ranks highly when ESPN shows points allowed but that’s only because the one thing Virginia still can do is control the pace.  The Pack Line takes a long time to learn.  Most kids have spent their entire lives taught to force the man with the ball to the baseline.  The Pack Line forces the man to center of the court, to the “pack” as it were.  It’s tough to unlearn, and it takes time.  And the team won’t get there this season.

A struggling offense?  A struggling defense?  This team will be fortunate to get to .500 in the ACC.  Which should be good enough for the NIT.

Matt: I'd love to be the optimist, but it's not an option this time. Virginia's ceiling is the NIT at this point.

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