Round Robin: Evaluating UVA Women's Basketball at Halfway Point of Season

Matt Newton, Luke Lamberson, Val Prochaska | 15 Hours Ago

Virginia Athletics

We're at the near halfway point of the Virginia women's basketball season, so it's time to evaluate what we've seen from the Cavaliers so far. Three members of the Virginia Cavaliers On SI staff - Luke Lamberson, Val Prochaska, and Matt Newton - are going to answer some questions to give their thoughts on Coach Mox's team through the first half of the 2024-2025 season.

Who/What has been the most pleasant surprise this season?

Luke: Breona Hurd. In my preseason roster predictions, I projected Hurd would only play a marginal role this season, but she has really excelled, starting 11 games already. After getting off to a blistering start, averaging 14 points and seven rebounds in her first six games, Hurd has found her rhythm again, scoring 25 combined points for the Hoos against Notre Dame and Wake Forest. She seems comfortable on both ends of the floor and truly excels in Coach Mox’s style of play. Especially for a team lacking any depth in the front court, Breona will be critical throughout the rest of ACC play.

Val: Latasha Lattimore.  She’s had a circuitous route to Virginia, having been first recruited by Coach Agugua-Hamilton as a sixth grader (when Mox was a Michigan State assistant.)  She was irregularly used at Texas as a freshman and then only played eight games her first year at Miami.  Last year she was part of a monster front line at Miami that also included 6’6” Kyla Oldacre and 6’4” Lazaria Spearman.  With the retirement of Katie Meier, all three have transferred, and if I could have had my pick, I would have gone with Oldacre, who recorded season highs both times she played Virginia, or Spearman, who played her best in the past two ACC tournaments.

Virginia got Lattimore and she’s exploded, doubling her career scoring and rebounding in a single season.  She’s hit 15+ points in six games and against UMES she had a double-double in the first half.  Lattimore is getting better and better as the season rolls along, and that’s vital as we get into the meat of ACC play.  She’s been a poor free throw shooter her entire career, and through the first stretch of her Virginia season, she was converting at a 46% clip.  The last seven games?  She’s at 70% which is a stunning improvement.  Lattimore has a decent handle and one thing that really bugged me was that every time she grabbed a defensive rebound the first three or four games, she would try to bring it up in her own, one-man break.  Those forays didn’t go well, but she has eliminated this bug from her game.  She’s also nimble enough to play the top of Coach Mox’s newly-added 3 – 2 zone and she has the size to deny the entry pass from the center of the court.

For the last three years the strength of this team had been the trio of bigs, Camryn Taylor, Sam Brunelle and London Clarkson, all of whom graduated.  This team desperately needed a big, and Lattimore has delivered.

Matt: The player answer to this question has to be either Breona Hurd or Latasha Lattimore, but I'll also add that Kymora Johnson is having the type of sophomore season Virginia hoped she would and I mean that in a couple of ways. Statistically, her numbers have improved nearly across the board and she is shooting with much more efficiency. But more importantly, Johnson has really stepped into the role of leader for this team, which is crucial given the number of seniors the Hoos graduated last year. Especially at the low points of this season, it has been evident that Johnson has taken ownership of the team and making it her responsibility to ensure the team's energy and effort is there regardless of the score. None of this is a surprise, as I think we all knew Mo was this type of player and leader, but it's still great to see these traits from a sophomore.

Who/What has been the biggest disappointment?

Luke: I have been disappointed in the Hoos' lack of consistency. While this has been an issue each of the last two seasons, it seemed that UVA was turning a corner last spring with their run of ranked upsets. Instead, this season includes a four game losing streak against weak competition and entire quarters where the Hoos seem out of sorts. Some of this can be attributed to the regression of the front court this season without Cam Taylor, but the team's young, but experienced back court has contributed as well. Last season the Hoos suffered a six game losing streak around the holidays and this season was really no better despite another year of experience for Johnson, McGhee, Clark, and others.

Val: Olivia McGhee.  Look, she’s scoring more, 9.6 ppg up from 5.5, and rebounding more, 2.8 boards per game up from 2 last season, but that’s largely due to her nearly doubling her minutes.  Coach Mox used her sporadically last year, but McGhee, whether coming off the bench or starting, has played consistently this season.  The last four games, as Mox has tightened her bench, McGhee is playing 34 minutes a game.

McGhee just hasn’t made the leap I would have hoped for the #45 ranked recruit of her class.  It’s not like Olivia isn’t trying.  She has doubled her shot attempts and she has gorgeous form – maybe the best extension in the women’s game – but she’s shooting just 31% from beyond the arc.  She runs the court better than anyone on the team on the break, but she still never seems to get separation.  She’s big for a wing – 6’2” – and she seems like she relishes playing physically, but in 14 games, she’s only taken nine free throws.  And believe me, we want her taking more free throws because she’s almost a 90% finisher from the charity stripe.  Last game out against Wake Forest, Coach Mox moved McGhee to the top of the zone (dropping Lattimore to baseline) and Olivia was quite disruptive, using her length to good advantage.

McGhee is a fine player as it is.  I just thought she could be special.  But there’s a lot of time left.

Matt: Disappointment is too strong of a word, but Paris Clark is not having the season she hoped for and it isn't really her fault. A foot injury required surgery in the offseason and she was still rehabbing from that operation when the season began. Unfortunately, it seems she still isn't quite 100% and even if she's progressing in her health, her on-court rhythm and athleticism, two major assets to her game, are not nearly where they were last season. We'll answer a question later on about finding a third reliable scorer to support Kymora Johnson and Latasha Lattimore, but the frustrating thing is that we wouldn't even need to be asking that question if Clark was her usual self.

The team is not just going to magically shoot the 3 at 40% every night. But what improvement can the Hoos realistically make this season?

Luke: Keeping on my theme of consistency, this team turns the ball over way too much. The Hoos are committing 17.8 turnovers a game, good for 118th in the NCAA. Although UVA’s up-tempo style has its benefits, these turnovers are punishing in a competitive ACC. The Hoos must be more controlled on offense if they want to turn this season around. Teams like Notre Dame are far too talented for UVA to gift them so many extra possessions. This can absolutely be improved if Lattimore, Johnson, and Clark can be more patient on offense. In key games last season, the Hoos controlled the ball and found great success. In their upset win over Virginia Tech, UVA only turned the ball over eight times.

Val: This team has gotten better at running the break this season, especially Paris Clark, who no longer grabs a rebound and tries to take it coast-to-coast every time.  Breona Hurd and Latasha Lattimore have struggled with that as well.  When any player, other than Kymora Johnson, tries to go all the way themselves, they usually end up with contested 1v2 and 1v3 opportunities at the rim.  And that usually results in a miss or a charge.  The team’s not doing that anymore.  The break, though, is still not a weapon as the wide players rarely sprint to the three-point line to (1) give Johnson an option, or (2) force defenders wide and give Kymora spacing in the lane.  So, at this point, I’m not expecting the Virginia break to become more efficient anytime this season.

What could help would be if Coach Mox returned to her early Virginia days roots and extend the bench.  Her first two years on Grounds, Mox played played all 10 or 11 players on her bench.  The last four games?  She’s played six players mostly.  Yes, Yonta Vaughn is still struggling to appear, presumably due to concussion protocols, but RyLee Grays, Casey Valenti-Paea and Payton Dunbar just aren’t seeing the court.  I think the team would be better, and break better, if they played full court defense most of the time.  Paris Clark could be an absolute destroyer in the open court on defense.  If she played football, she’d be a free safety.  She has great hands, vision and instincts.  But you can’t press if you’re only going six or seven deep.

Matt: Tangent to Val's point about running a deeper rotation is getting key players healthy and fully in rhythm on the floor. Odd injuries and illnesses have plagued this team for the last couple of seasons and though Yonta Vaughn is the only one who has been completely sidelined as of late, there are other cases of players who are still clearly not playing at their best; namely, Paris Clark and Edessa Noyan. I asked Coach Mox about this in a press conference this week and she said she didn't want to make any excuses with regards to player health/availability and its impact on the team's performance and success. That's the right answer in a presser, but I imagine Coach Mox would feel better about her team if Clark was fully up to speed, Noyan hadn't missed a few games due to illness, and Yonta Vaughn was on the floor to help alleviate some of the ball-handling pressure from Johnson.

Kymora Johnson and Latasha Lattimore seemed to have locked in as the two most reliable scorers. Who is most likely to emerge as the third option?

Luke: I’m going with Breona Hurd again. This team succeeds when Hurd succeeds and they struggle when Hurd struggles. In UVA’s four game losing streak, Breona Hurd did not reach double digits once, despite averaging 30 minutes per game. If Hurd can consistently provide a third option, it will open up shooters on the outside and allow for Lattimore and Hurd to work in tandem on the interior. This also will take some defensive pressure off Mo Johnson, allowing her to facilitate the offense more effectively. Considering she has only played 15 games at the collegiate level, I am confident that she can take her game to the next level, similar to Johnson’s progression in ACC play last season.

Val: If this team is going to be successful, someone else has to step up, and I don’t think McGhee and Hurd are ready yet.  It has to be Paris Clark.  She’s struggled with injuries this season having missed six games for assorted ailments.  Clark has been a starter since she got here, and while the stats tell me she’s shooting as frequently as last year, she seems more tentative this year.  She’s not attacking the rim, especially out of the half-court, with the same aggressiveness as last season.  Clark reached double figures 15 times last season; by way of comparison, she’s only done so twice in the 10 games she’s played this year.

Matt: Val is right that it seems Hurd and McGhee aren't quite ready to be that third option yet, but I think the key to Virginia reaching its ceiling this season is for the Cavaliers to unlock one of those players and I think McGhee is closest. Her size and athleticism make her a potential force in transition and I think McGhee could get increase her scoring averages by as many as 3-5 points if she tried to get to the free throw line more often. And despite the numbers, her jump shooting form is also great; Virginia needs to find a way to get her some more open and in rhythm looks from the perimeter.

So, what is the team's ceiling?

Luke: Last season, UVA was 15-14 in the regular season, including 7-11 in conference. This year, the Hoos currently sit 9-6 overall (1-2 in the ACC). With 10 games left against unranked teams, the ceiling should be higher than last year. Unfortunately, I don’t think this team is better than last year’s version. I think an overall winning record is the ceiling for this team. I hope I’m wrong, but I just do not see how this team will be able to defend the interior against top ACC teams. The Hoos will need to pull off a few upsets or at least find some form of consistency against lower tier teams to prove me wrong. If everything goes right, maybe fans see 17 wins, but pencil me in for 15-15 (7-11 in conference).

Val: Escaping the first round of both the ACC and NCAA tournaments.  I say escape the ACC tournament because for the last three years, Virginia has faced Wake Forest in the first round.  The same Wake team that they currently have a 70-11 series advantage over.  And the one they just beat handily.  And yet, that Wake team has knocked Virginia out of tournament play on the first day.  In the Big Dance, Virginia ought to be able to match up well against the automatic-selection mid-major they get lined up against.  Last year, a WBIT (Women’s Basketball Invitational Tournament, analogous to the NIT) invite was a reasonable stepping stone for the second year of the Coach Mox tenure.  Returning to the WBIT would be a step back.

Matt: I find myself somewhere between Luke and Val on this one. Luke is right that the Cavaliers are likely to be at a severe disadvantage against most front courts they'll face the rest of the way, but I also think they could still very well make the NCAA Tournament by taking care of business against the bottom third of the ACC and pulling just a couple of upsets. I like UVA's chances to end its drought of not winning a game at the ACC Tournament, but I'm not sure the Hoos will be able to advance in the NCAA Tournament, though I'd love for them to prove me wrong. As far as the team's hopes of even making the Big Dance, we are going to learn a lot about that in the next three weeks, as Virginia faces Clemson on the road, then hosts No. 14 Duke, plays at Virginia Tech and at No. 21 NC State, then hosts No. 13 Georgia Tech. It's a tough stretch but the Cavaliers have to come out of that run with two or three wins.

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