UVA Basketball Roster Turnover Prediction: What to Expect This Offseason

William Smythe | Mar 20, 2025

Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images

With Virginia’s season completed, the chaos of the transfer portal is now setting in. We’ll keep a close eye on transfers in and out of Virginia. Dai Dai Ames and Blake Buchanan have already declared for the portal and plenty of changes will take place following the announcement of Virginia’s next head coach.

I was not sure exactly where to slot this 'Hoo, so I'll address sophomore guard Elijah Gertrude at the outset. Having torn his ACL for a second time last fall, Gertrude will hopefully be ready for action come the start of next season. Coach Tony Bennett yanked his redshirt seven games into the non-conference slate in 2023-2024, against then-No. 14 Texas A&M in Charlottesville. Gertrude showed flashes of brilliance and would be an asset for Ryan Odom or whomever else may receive the keys. Despite the injury history, he still has plenty of potential as an athletic playmaker and should have three years of eligibility still remaining after taking a medical redshirt this season.

Portal Tracker: Dai Dai Ames, Blake Buchanan

Wednesday brought the news that sophomore guard Dai Dai Ames will be entering the portal for the second consecutive season. He fell into head coach Ron Sanchez’s doghouse in the first few ACC contests only to reemerge as a primary scorer around February. The Kansas State transfer finally broke through with a 27-point outing against Pittsburgh on the road, and he almost scraped the 40% three-point threshold (39.7%) at the end of the season. While Ames showed flashes and has two more years of eligibility, this isn't an apocalyptic loss for the new staff. In fact, it may suggest that Virginia is trending well with four-star recruit Chance Mallory.

It was announced on Tuesday that sophomore center Blake Buchanan will enter the transfer portal after two seasons in Charlottesville. Despite starting 28 games as a ‘Hoo, he never truly gained traction as a scorer and only finished with five double-digit scoring outings. I wouldn’t be surprised if Buchanan lands with a Mountain West program and returns to the West Coast. Boise State — a program that narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament this season — jumps off of the page as a potential destination for the rising junior, an Idaho native.

This decision wasn’t unexpected, as Buchanan did not take a leap in his sophomore campaign and may benefit from heightened confidence in a mid-major conference.

Priorities to Retain: Isaac McKneely, Andrew Rohde, Anthony Robinson, and Jacob Cofie

Regardless of the choice for Virginia’s next head coach, portaling has and will continue to dominate the offseason headlines in Charlottesville. We’ll have to brace for impact as the Cavalier roster faces a choice of whether to embrace a coaching change or depart for other destinations. No one will garner more attention in the portal than rising senior Isaac McKneely (14.4 PPG) — a two-year starter who has averaged a 42.4% three-point clip over his college career. Virginia needs to prioritize McKneely. Even if he is only one year out from completing his degree, NIL has completely changed the game.

Options such as West Virginia and Kentucky immediately come to mind; a native of the former, McKneely could follow the Country Roads home and finish out an impressive career with the Mountaineers, who are currently searching for a new head coach. Or, he may join head coach Mark Pope’s high-paced offensive unit in Lexington, one which will require a replacement for flamethrower Koby Brea (43.5% 3PT over five years). There will be no shortage of suitors for McKneely, who recently announced that he had signed with an agency, One Motive Sports.

‼️OMS NIL CLIENT SIGNING‼️ We are beyond thankful to announce that we’ve signed one of the best Guards in college basketball, Isaac McKneely @IsaacMcKneely to the OMS NIL Family!

The Poca, W.V. native averaged 14.4 PPG and shot 42.1% from 3 for the Virginia Cavaliers this year! pic.twitter.com/5sCK7f9OhC

— One Motive Sports NIL (@OMS_NIL) March 15, 2025

Next on the priority list is junior Andrew Rohde, a revelation in Year Two. Coach Bennett did not ease Rohde — a transfer from St. Thomas (MN) — into high-major play last season, and he looked uncomfortable in a competitive ACC. Rohde, however, provided a much-needed sense of steadiness in the backcourt this season. He curbed his turnover issue and then some, recording a phenomenal four-game stretch in which he logged 34 assists and two total turnovers. I don’t know if he’ll field more competitive financial offers than from Virginia.

IF Virginia’s new coach succeeds in securing a re-commitment from Mallory in three days' time, Rohde could be a perfect guide for the youngster.

Rising sophomore Anthony Robinson has a world of potential. A redshirt center whose only high-major offer came from Virginia, Robinson broke into the rotation this season and provided immediate help for a roster shortchanged in the rebounding department. His athleticism and defensive instincts would help the ‘Hoos immensely, alongside his three remaining years of eligibility.

Has he done enough to merit serious looks from other programs? Considering the rate at which this portal madness moves, my guess is yes. Watch out for North Carolina, in particular, as head coach Hubert Davis desperately needs a big and would have the NIL to throw at an under-the-radar player such as Robinson. Virginia needs him back in the fold.

I fear that Cofie will go portaling, but he’s absolutely worth retaining. The freshman forward burst onto the scene with three consecutive double-digit scoring outings in his first three games as a ‘Hoo. His length, athleticism, and success as a four (playing alongside a true center, ideally) could be a boon for the ‘Hoos’ next coach, regardless of fit. He might be tailor-made for Coach Odom’s balanced system. I’ll overlook his 24.4% 3PT and his up-and-down trajectory following the hot start to non-conference play; he’s young and would be a key piece moving forward.

Would Have Back: Elijah Saunders, Ishan Sharma

Saunders left San Diego State — a mid-major juggernaut that reached the National Championship in 2023 — for Virginia last season. Ironically, the junior played his best basketball against some of the strongest opponents on the ‘Hoos’ schedule in Florida and Memphis, with his 19 points against the former all the more impressive when looking at the Gators’ CV. The injury bug bit Saunders in early February, and he didn’t quite look like the same player. Virginia could still benefit from a defensive-oriented, physical frontcourt presence whose three-point shooting percentages have improved year-to-year. 

It’d also be nice to have three veteran presences in McKneely, Rohde, and Saunders around to facilitate the transition from Bennett Ball to whatever’s next. If Saunders departed, however, it would not leave a major dent in Virginia’s prospects next season.

It never hurts to have a sharpshooter on your roster. Guard Ishan Sharma (3.4 PPG) could still be a reincarnation of McKneely or Kyle Guy, but his sample size is limited. I wouldn’t look too much into the 33.3% clip from behind the arc. If you want a shooter to succeed, give him the leash to find his form. Sharma was never on the court long enough to have that true “green light” that we’ve seen from other three-point specialists in Charlottesville. I think you can’t have both Power and Sharma on the roster next season, though. I’d hope for the latter, who has three years remaining and could hone his craft with McKneely and Guy.

Time to Move On: TJ Power, Christian Bliss

Unfortunately, Power — a sophomore forward — did not nearly live up to his five-star billing. Massachusetts’ 2022 Gatorade Player of the Year did not see the court at Duke, yet many expected a bounce-back for the stretch big. Virginia saw none of that potential manifest itself in Power’s second year of college basketball. Despite starting the first few games, Power cascaded down the pecking order and did not escape, scoring 15 points from December onwards. It’s time for him to seek a mid-major option to restore that confidence (and shooting stroke). Don’t rule out the possibility of Power staying on in 2025-26, however, so long as the next coaching staff can hold out hope for a resurgence.

Freshman guard Christian Bliss has not suited up for the ‘Hoos in two years with the program. A redshirt all of last season, he further dealt with injury issues and had a bit of a cryptic absence from the floor, even if Sanchez hinted in January that he would soon be ready for action. Bliss might have intended to save another year of eligibility on behalf of a medical redshirt, which would give him four years to play elsewhere. He will not likely be on the roster next season.

Virginia Basketball Roster Turnover Prediction

Returners: McKneely, Rohde, Saunders, Robinson, Sharma, Gertrude, sophomore center Carter Lang

Portalers: Ames, Buchanan, Cofie, Power, Bliss

This prediction may seem lofty in light of the carnage often inflicted by the portal. However, if VCU’s Ryan Odom ends up as Bennett’s successor, he’ll have a great shot to keep some of these guys on board. McKneely, Rohde, Robinson and Cofie are the priorities, and a commitment from Mallory would catalyze the next chapter in Charlottesville.

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