UVA Basketball: Three Breakout Candidates for the 2024-2025 Season

William Smythe | Oct 28, 2024

Virginia Athletic

With the 2024-2025 Virginia men's basketball season just around the corner, let’s analyze a few of the breakout candidates for the Cavaliers this season. A massive coaching change aside, this year's roster features a solid mix of freshmen, returners, and transfers who are collectively hoping to improve from last year’s less-than-memorable finish in March.

Here are our picks for three Cavaliers who could have breakout campaigns for Virginia in the 2024-2025 basketball season:

Virginia Basketball Breakout Candidate #1: Elijah Saunders

Elijah Saunders | Junior Forward | 2023-24 Stats: 6.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG (San Diego State)

Saunders’ commitment to Virginia largely flew under the radar this offseason. The former Aztec’s announcement came in the immediate wake of ex-Duke forward TJ Power’s, a former five-star recruit whom Virginia heavily pursued out of high school. Nonetheless, Saunders’ momentum has gained considerable traction thanks to his impressive showing in the Blue/White Scrimmage; with the departures of multiple frontcourt pieces, moreover, he will be asked to play a more versatile position as both a stretch four and a center in small-ball lineups. Power can shoot, yet he doesn’t have the physicality or defensive prowess that Saunders can bring to matchups against both forwards and smaller centers.

Last season, San Diego State’s offense heavily revolved around the interior play of forward and All-American selection Jaedon LeDee (21.4 PPG) — a revelation who allowed the Aztecs to go guard-heavy alongside a dominant post-up player. Saunders still played 20.2 minutes per game, shooting 32.2% from the three-point line while averaging a modest 6.2 points. I believe that LeDee’s outsized role in that offense overshadowed much of Saunders’ potential and relegated him to a mere three-point shooting role, since the former had no problem playing bully ball in the paint. Coach Brian Dutcher has to be kicking himself after losing five of his top six scorers (including Saunders) to the portal, and I’d like to believe that Saunders would’ve been a massive breakout candidate in San Diego as LeDee’s replacement in the frontcourt. Despite the change of scenery, it is still reasonable to expect a sizable leap from the versatile forward — charged to carry a heavier offensive burden than before.

I believe Saunders will finish a close second behind McKneely in scoring and will average double-digits, while his stretch three-point shooting dimension and physical build will allow him to flourish in a similarly-slow offensive scheme. He’s received plenty of buzz this offseason, and, in particular, as a standout from the Blue/White scrimmage after a 10-point, six-rebound performance. It would be a shock if he doesn’t trot out as a starter against Campbell.

Virginia Basketball Breakout Candidate #2: Blake Buchanan

Blake Buchanan | Sophomore Center | 2023-24 Stats: 3.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG

One of four returners who’s played significant minutes for Virginia, sophomore Blake Buchanan seemingly has the center spot to himself following the graduation of Merrimack transfer Jordan Minor. Redshirt freshman Anthony Robinson and Vanderbilt transfer Carter Lang are the fellow centers listed on the roster, while 6’10” freshman Jacob Cofie has potential to slot into a big-man role as the season progresses. However, Buchanan is far and away the most likely candidate of the bunch to see 20+ minutes a game. The Idaho native experienced some natural peaks and valleys in a turbulent campaign for the Cavaliers, yet he also showed promise — as evidenced by an 18-point outing against Florida. 

In order to morph into a frontcourt force, Buchanan has to sharpen his offensive game. He did end the year as a plus on the defensive end, finishing fourth of all ‘Hoos in defensive efficiency (1.76) as according to the college basketball metrics database, EvanMiya. On the flip side, Buchanan ranked last out of the eight Virginia players measured in terms of offensive performance rating (-1.50). The former four-star looked shaky around the basket in his first campaign. The ‘Hoos suffered from a lack of consistent scoring production out of their bigs — Buchanan and Minor, in particular — but a sophomore jump could very well be in the cards for the former.

I’m not asking for Buchanan to average double-digits in his second season. With a much improved frontcourt surrounding him, pressure should be lifted off of his shoulders; however, a more confident offensive player in Buchanan will lift this unproven team’s ceiling. I’m expecting him to morph into the skilled big man we anticipated out of high school.

Virginia Basketball Breakout Candidate #3: Ishan Sharma

Ishan Sharma | Freshman Guard | 2023-2024 Stats: N/A

Akin to Saunders, Sharma’s commitment flew under the radar. A household name in Canada, the 6’5” shooting guard dominated high school play with Fort Erie (ON) and garnered National High School Player of the Year honors — no small feat in a country which produced a two-time NCAA National Player of the Year in Zach Edey. Sharma has settled in after an offseason in Charlottesville, where he’ll hopefully fall in line behind the great shooters who have played at John Paul Jones Arena — Joe Harris, Kyle Guy, Sam Hauser, and, most recently, Isaac McKneely. I was tempted to throw Tomas Woldetensae in there, too. 

The preseason acclaim surrounding Sharma is altogether difficult to ignore. Assistant coach Isaiah Wilkins cited the freshman as someone to watch this upcoming season, an encouraging sign considering UVA's tendency under Tony Bennett (and we'll have to say if this continues under Ron Sanchez) to redshirt talented freshmen. It seems, however, as if Sharma’s spot is locked in. With a physical frame for a shooting guard, the Canadian could potentially steal minutes at the three spot behind either TJ Power or Andrew Rohde; even without having seen any live-game action, many Cavalier fans would likely hope that Sharma sees more of the court than Rohde (whom I think will show signs of significant improvement with a year under his belt in the ACC). 

If what we’re hearing is true — that he is truly an elite shooter — it will be hard for Sanchez and company to keep him off of the floor. This is assuming that the defensive play is sufficiently Pack-Liney for him to earn minutes, but imagine a floor-spacing lineup of McKneely, Power/Saunders, and Sharma? A nine-point, high-volume performance in the Blue/White Scrimmage suggests the freshman could burst onto the scene.

Honorable Mentions: TJ Power, Christian Bliss, Dai Dai Ames

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