UVA Football: Are Virginia's Bowl Hopes Gone After Disastrous UNC Loss?

After losing a game in which the Cavaliers were favored, bowl chances have significantly altered for Virginia football.

It will be an uphill battle for the Cavaliers if they want to play in a bowl game this season. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Since an impressive 4-1 start, the belief in a revolutionized Virginia football program has taken a turn for the worse. Despite a close loss to Louisville at home and a blowout loss to Clemson at Death Valley, with a win over a North Carolina team that had lost its last four games and whose starting quarterback was out with a season-ending injury, the Hoos would be left with the mission of scavenging just one more win from their final four games to snag a ticket to bowl eligibility.

Instead, behind their largest home crowd of the season, the Cavaliers delivered their worst performance of the year with a nauseating 41-14 loss to the Tar Heels. 

With the loss to North Carolina, most of the bowl analysts we could find no longer have the Hoos headed to a bowl game. ESPN's Football Power Index is giving Virginia just a 13.2% chance to reach six wins and the Cavaliers have the 11th-toughest remaining strength of schedule.

Here's a breakdown of Virginia's final four games and an analysis of whether UVA will be going bowling or, more realistically, enroute to finishing its season on a seven-game losing streak.

November 9th: Away at No. 18 Pittsburgh 

After the bye week, the Cavaliers face the Pittsburgh Panthers, who are undefeated through seven games as they travel to face the SMU Mustangs, the their most formidable opponent of the season to this point. At the start of the season, on paper, the Panthers did not appear to be as tough of an opponent, but quarterback Eli Holstein and a solid defense has transformed Pittsburgh into one of the best teams in the ACC. ESPN's game predictor gives Virginia a 22% chance to leave Acrisure Stadium with a win. 

November 16th: Away at No. 8 Notre Dame 

If you thought Pitt was an uphill battle for the Hoos, the Cavaliers then travel to South Bend, Indiana to take on No. 8 Notre Dame after facing the Panthers. Virginia has faced the Fighting Irish four times, losing in all four contests, with the most recent game being a 28-3 loss at home in 2021. ESPN gives Virginia a 4.2% chance of winning this game, so the only thing to do is quote Al Michaels, "Do you believe in miracles?" 

November 23rd: Home vs. No. 20 SMU 

With the brutal two game road stretch behind the Hoos', Virginia returns to Charlottesville for its final home game of the season to welcome new ACC foe, SMU, to Scott Stadium. The Mustangs, similar to Pitt, have surpassed expectations this season, a team that we have ranked at No. 2 in our ACC Week 10 Power Rankings. The Mustangs have yet to lose a game in the ACC, with ESPN giving the Cavaliers only a 20.2% chance of giving SMU a proper ACC welcome, which is unlikely. 

November 30th: Away At Virginia Tech 

When it comes to winning games, facing Virginia Tech has not been a favorable matchup for the Hoos, who have won one of the last 19 matchups against the Hokies. Further, the Cavaliers have not won in Blacksburg since 1998. Not surprisingly, ESPN gives Virginia an 18.4% chance to win; even that feels kind. 

Will Virginia make a bowl game? 

On any given Saturday, anything can happen, but based on the recent performances and strength of schedule, the continuing bowl drought is the most likely scenario for a season in Charlottesville that started with a 4-1 record. If Virginia can win one of these uphill battles, it should be considered the highlight of the season and something to build on in 2025.

More Virginia Football News

Virginia Football: ACC Football Week 10 Power Rankings

UVA Football Report Card: Handing Out Grades for Virginia vs. North Carolina

By the Numbers: Breaking Down Virginia's Loss to North Carolina

Virginia Football Suffers 41-14 Loss vs. North Carolina

Five Takeaways from Virginia Football's 41-14 Loss to North Carolina