Virginia Basketball: Projecting UVA's Starting Five for Next Season

William Smythe | Jul 18, 2024

Isaac McKneely is Virginia's lone returning full-time starter and is the only lock to make the starting five for the Cavaliers in 2024-2025. / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Following a turbulent end to the 2023-2024 Virginia men’s basketball season, Tony Bennett and his staff have regrouped to assemble a new-look Cavalier roster. Unlike past years, in which graduate transfers and elder statesmen such as Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman led Virginia’s veteran teams, the script has flipped. Of the 12 scholarship players on UVA's roster, only five are upperclassmen. 

Thanks to some redshirts, sophomore transfers, and incoming freshmen, Bennett now has the youngest team of his 15-year tenure at the helm – and arguably the most talented. Critics have often poked at Bennett for missing on highly-touted four and five-star recruits, with UCLA commit Trent Perry the most recent “what if” candidate to choose another route. As many have discovered across college basketball, the portal giveth and taketh away, and several players who strongly considered Virginia during their high school recruiting process ultimately chose Charlottesville as their second college destination — senior guard Jalen Warley and sophomore forward TJ Power, both transferring in-conference from Florida State and Duke, respectively. Warley and Power are among the seven Virginia players who were ESPN Top 100 recruits in high school, the most in Bennett’s time at UVA, as pointed out by Danny Neckel.

UVA's roster currently has 7 players that were in the top #100 of ESPN's recruiting rankings coming out of high school.

That is the most such players on a Virginia roster in the Tony Bennett era.

— Danny Neckel (@DNeckel19) May 15, 2024

Questions lingered after this past season as to whether the Cavaliers possessed the talent and the recruiting chops to overcome recent offensive woes and poor performances in the NCAA Tournament following the 2019 National Championship. Now, however, Bennett has an arsenal at his disposal and hopefully a long-term developmental plan after landing younger transfer talent. With so many new and exciting pieces added to this roster, let’s talk about what we should expect from the Cavaliers next season and who might make up the starting five for Virginia in 2024-2025.

Lock to Start: Isaac McKneely

Frankly, it’s difficult to assign the “lock” label to anyone on this roster just yet. McKneely, however, has logged the most valuable minutes in the system and started 33 games last season for Virginia. The 6’4 shooting guard from Poca, West Virginia also finished second on the team in scoring and led the Cavaliers in both three-point and free-throw percentage. McKneely starred with five 20+ point games and looked the part defensively alongside Beekman, with the responsibility for covering opponents’ best guards likely falling to the junior this season. While the competition may be tougher in the backcourt, McKneely should be a no-brainer start for Bennett and company on account of his shooting prowess and familiarity with the Pack Line Defense.

Feeling Good About: Blake Buchanan

After an up-and-down freshman season for Blake Buchanan, a breakout sophomore campaign may be on the horizon for the 6'11" sophomore from Idaho. Buchanan made waves with an 18-point performance in an early contest against Florida, yet he did not reach double digits in any subsequent game and looked a bit outmatched against some ACC frontcourts. A year under his belt, a rigorous strength and conditioning regimen, and an offseason battling against redshirt center Anthony Robinson and 6’10 freshman forward Jacob Cofie should prepare Buchanan for a starting role come November. After all, Bennett does value minutes previously played in his niche offensive and defensive systems.

Hunches: Dai Dai Ames, Jalen Warley, TJ Power

The competition for the point guard spot is between three candidates — Ames, Warley, and redshirt freshman Christian Bliss. I imagine that Bennett will slot Warley into the three-spot due to his length (6’7) and defensive versatility, so it should boil down to the battle between Ames and Bliss. I’ll give the nod to the former — a transfer from Kansas State who averaged 5.2 points per game last season.

The lefty from Chicago is an explosive guard with a shifty style of play and has plenty of potential under the right offensive conditions. As for Bliss, there’s simply no tape available at the college level, but his size (6’4") is compelling for bigger lineups that the Cavaliers want to roll out. Ames’ flashes in the uber-competitive Big 12 give reason to believe he’ll start the year as the primary ballhandler. Regardless of who wins out, it would be wise for Bennett to give the nod to Ames or Bliss over Warley so that Virginia can give their young ballhandlers the experience they need to succeed down the road.

Warley isn’t the sexiest pick to be a starter, but Virginia will benefit from his defensive services. The only senior on the squad outside of returning guard Taine Murray, the 6’7 guard has played valuable minutes in the ACC and may be a “glue guy” for a roster largely bereft of upperclassmen for the first time in years. Don’t depend on Warley for three-point shooting, as he only converted one of seven three-point attempts last season, yet his presence should be felt on the defensive end and offensively as a slashing threat and capable passer. The Florida State product did tally six games with three-plus steals, so fans can hope for a reincarnation of Beekman and his ball-hawking prowess.

As for other candidates at the three, San Diego State transfer Elijah Saunders, junior Andrew Rohde, and Murray come to mind. Saunders, at 6’8, 225 lbs., might be a stretch big in Bennett’s offense, and Rohde struggled with the transition to ACC basketball last year. Murray, meanwhile, is a true shooting guard who can relieve McKneely. It just seems to me that Warley fills a greater need.

The frontcourt should be ripe with options next season. Virginia graduated center Jordan Minor and forward Ryan Dunn — the 28th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft — and will feature five new bigs on the roster. Sophomore TJ Power — a former five-star heavily recruited out of high school by the Cavaliers — spent a year in Durham before transferring to Virginia this offseason. The aforementioned Saunders took a sophomore leap and averaged 6.2 points per game as an Aztec last year, reaching the National Championship and Sweet Sixteen in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Moreover, 6’10 freshman Jacob Cofie won Gatorade Player of the Year honors in Washington State and was No. 56 on ESPN’s Top 100 list for recruits in the Class of 2024.

Nonetheless, Power’s strength from behind the arc should propel him into the starting lineup alongside Ames, McKneely, Warley, and Buchanan. The 6’9 forward only averaged 2.1 points per game at Duke and played limited minutes, yet, with three years of eligibility left and a strong recruiting background, he will hopefully provide a consistent three-point threat alongside McKneely. My only concern for Power is how quickly he grows accustomed to the Pack Line; if his defense is truly a limitation, then Saunders or Cofie could leapfrog.

With the number of new pieces on the roster, it wouldn't be surprising to see Tony Bennett and his staff experiment with several different starting lineup combinations early in the season, looking to find the best mix by trial and error in non-conference play so as to settle on the best starting five by the time the ACC schedule begins.

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