Virginia Basketball vs. California Game Preview, Score Prediction

Matt Newton | 2 Hours Ago

Virginia Athletics

Virginia and California will meet for the first time since 2016 and for the first time as members of the same conference in a late-night contest in Berkeley on Wednesday night, the first of two games on the West Coast for the Cavaliers, who will take on Stanford on Saturday afternoon.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. California, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Wednesday night's matchup.

Virginia vs. California Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (8-6, 1-2 ACC) at California Golden Bears (7-7, 0-3 ACC)

When: Wednesday, January 8th at 11pm ET

Where: Haas Pavilion (11,800) in Berkeley, CA

How to watch: ESPN2

How to listen: SiriusXM 387, SXM App 977

All-time series: Virginia leads 2-0

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Cal 56-52 on December 21st, 2016 at Haas Pavilion.

Virginia vs. California Game Notes

• Virginia leads Cal 2-0 in the all-time series that dates back to 2015, as UVA claimed both parts of a home and home series played in the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 seasons.
• In the first-ever meeting between these two programs, the Cavaliers took down the Golden Bears 63-62 in overtime on December 22nd, 2015 at John Paul Jones Arena. Malcolm Brogdon stripped the ball from Jaylen Brown at the end of regulation to send the game to overtime and Brogdon and London Perrantes both hit three-pointers in the final minute of overtime to give the Hoos a thrilling win.
• In the rematch at Haas Pavilion the following year, Perrantes scored 14 points and Kyle Guy led the Cavaliers with 17 points off the bench to help Virginia earn a 56-52 victory over Cal on December 21st, 2016.
• Virginia and Virginia Tech are the first ACC teams to make the trip out west to take on Cal and Stanford this season. The Hokies are playing the Cardinal on Wednesday and the Golden Bears on Saturday, while UVA is facing Cal on Wednesday and Stanford on Saturday.
• UVA is 1-4 away from John Paul Jones Arena and 0-2 in true road games so far this season.

Scouting Report: California

2023-2024: 13-19, 9-11 PAC-12 (6th)
2024-2025: 7-7, 0-3 ACC

The second season of Cal basketball under head coach Mark Madsen started well enough, as the Golden Bears went 6-1 with a nice road win over USC mixed in there. Then came a shootout loss to Missouri in the SEC/Challenge, another shootout loss to Stanford in the first ACC game for both programs, and then yet another shootout loss to Cornell. A win over Northwestern State did little to build confidence, as Cal followed that up with three more losses to San Diego State, Pitt, and Clemson, all by double-digit margins.

Cal has a fairly potent offense, which features one of the best scorers in the country in Andrej Stojakovic, but its defense is not in good shape. The Golden Bears rank 249th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom and their opponents are averaging 76.9 points per game (312th) and are shooting 37.6% from beyond the arc (347th).

Unless Cal makes some shocking improvements on defense, the only path for success moving forward will be to outscore its opponents in these shootouts. Fortunately for the Golden Bears, neither of their next two opponents (Virginia and Virginia Tech) are offensive juggernauts.

Cal boasts four double-digit scorers, though one of them, North Dakota transfer forward BJ Omot (10.8 ppg), has been out since November 17th with an arm injury. The Golden Bears also went without Minnesota transfer forward Joshua Ola-Joseph (7.5 ppg) for a bit due to an illness, but he returned to the court for Cal's last game and could be back in the starting five against Virginia on Wednesday.

The headliner of the Cal roster is the aforementioned 6'7" guard Andrej Stojakovic, son of three-time NBA All-Star Peja Stojakovic and, at one point, a Virginia recruit who had the Hoos in his top six before he ultimately committed to Stanford. After one season in Palo Alto, Stojakovic transferred to Cal, where he has blossomed into an excellent scorer and all-around player. He ranks second in the ACC and 18th in the country in scoring at 19.9 points per game, shoots 36.8% from three on nearly five attempts per game and also averages 4.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game. Stojakovic will be the focus of the Virginia defense.

Joining Stojakovic at the guard spots are two more transfers in 5'11" guard Jovan Blacksher Jr. (Grand Canyon) and 6'2" guard DJ Campbell (Western Carolina). Blacksher is averaging 12.0 points and 3.4 assists per game and is the team's best three-point shooter at 40.3% on 5.6 attempts per game. Campbell, a native of Hampton, Virginia, is averaging 7.4 points and 1.3 steals per game and is a 33.3% three-point shooter.

There have been some shake-ups in the front court over the course of the season, but Cal's most recent starting front court included 6'7" forward Rytis Petraitis, an Air Force transfer who averages 7.8 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, and 6'9" center Mady Sissoko, who spent four years at Michigan State and who averages 6.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.

Look out for 6'1" freshman guard Jeremiah Wilkinson off the bench. Wilkinson is Cal's second-leading scorer at 12.6 points per game and converts on nearly 34% of his threes on more than four attempts per contest.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. California

How will Virginia defend against Andrej Stojakovic?
UVA has faced some great teams and talented players, but with the exception of Villanova's Eric Dixon, the Cavaliers haven't often had to deal with a scorer of the caliber of Andrej Stojakovic. In the past, Virginia would simply put one of its elite defenders (Beekman, Dunn, Hunter, Brogdon, etc.) on a star like Stojakovic to neutralize or at least contain him. With no such lockdown defender on the roster this time, it will take a concerted team effort from the UVA defense to keep a lid on Stojakovic without allowing any of the other scorers on the Cal offense to get going.

Can UVA take advantage of Cal's questionable defense?
It's been an up-and-down season for the Virginia offense. With no consistent individual playmakers, the Cavaliers have looked very stagnant and disconnected on offense at times. But they have also shown flashes of promise - the win over Villanova, the second half against NC State, and even the loss to Florida had lots of good moments for the UVA offense. Cal's defense has been one of the worst in the ACC so far, particularly at defending the three-point line. Virginia must expose that weakness.

Can Virginia play well away from home?
Leaving the confines of John Paul Jones Arena hasn't gone well for the Cavaliers other than that win over Villanova in Baltimore very early in the season. Virginia is 1-4 away from Charlottesville and 0-2 in true road games. In those five games, UVA is scoring just 57.4 points per game and allowing 70.8 points per game to its opponents. It's early, but those numbers are starting to look a lot like last season, when Virginia went 5-6 in true road games, losing all six by more than 15 points and four of the six by at least 20. There aren't many "easier" or more winnable road games left for Virginia on the ACC schedule; this is a huge opportunity for the Hoos to make some progress on this front.

Virginia vs. California Prediction

The threes didn't fall for Virginia against Louisville last time out, going 5/26 from beyond the arc. A trip out to the West Coast has given the Cavaliers some time to shake that one off and now they can get back to it against the worst three-point defense in the ACC. Virginia gets the three-ball going en route to its first win in a true road game this season.

Score prediction: Virginia 73, California 67

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