Virginia Basketball vs. Duke Game Preview, Score Prediction

Matt Newton | Feb 17, 2025

Virginia Athletics

For live updates of Virginia vs. Duke:Virginia vs. Duke Live Updates | NCAA Men's Basketball

Fresh off of a big win in Blacksburg to extend their winning streak to three games, the Virginia Cavaliers face a quick turnaround and welcome one of the best teams and best players in college basketball to John Paul Jones Arena as Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils visit UVA on Monday night.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Duke, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Monday night's matchup.

Virginia vs. Duke Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (13-12, 6-8 ACC) vs. Duke Blue Devils (22-3, 14-1 ACC)

When: Monday, February 17th at 8pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena (14,623) in Charlottesville, VA

How to watch: ESPN

Commentators: Dave O'Brien (Play-by-Play), Cory Alexander (Analyst)

How to listen: SiriusXM 80, SXM App 80 | ESPN Radio | Virginia Sports Radio Network | Blue Devils Sports Network

All-time series: Duke leads 125-54

Last meeting: Duke defeated Virginia 73-48 on March 2nd, 2024 in Durham

Virginia vs. Duke Game Notes

• Duke leads Virginia 125-54 in the all-time series that dates back to February of 1911.
• UVA is 36-41 against Duke in Charlottesville and 4-7 against the Blue Devils at John Paul Jones Arena.
• Virginia and Duke have split the last four games played at John Paul Jones Arena, but the Blue Devils have won three of the last five meetings overall and six of the last 10.
• Seven of the last 10 meetings between Virginia and Duke have been decided by four points or less.
• Virginia is on a three-game winning streak for the first time since the beginning of the season, but is 0-4 against ranked opponents this season.
• Duke is currently leading the ACC standings with a 14-1 record in conference play, while Virginia is tied for ninth at 6-8 in ACC play.

Scouting Report: Duke

2023-2024: 27-9, 15-5 ACC (2nd)
2024-2025: 22-3, 14-1 ACC (1st)

Jon Scheyer has had some very good teams in his first three seasons as the head coach at Duke, but this appears to be his best one yet. The Blue Devils are 22-3 and 14-1 ACC play. Their only losses have come against Kentucky and Kansas at neutral sites back in November and then a close road loss at Clemson on February 8th. Other than that, it's been pure domination from the Blue Devils, who have positioned themselves with the inside track for the ACC regular season title, the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, and a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament as well. Duke also owns perhaps the most impressive victory of the college basketball season, as the only team to defeat the current No. 1 team in the nation Auburn back on December 4th.

Of course, when discussing Duke's personnel, you have to begin with the superstar freshman and the likely No. 1 pick in this year's NBA Draft Cooper Flagg. A 6'9" versatile forward with virtually every offensive tool in his skill set, Flagg first made waves before he even arrived in Durham, when he played against the U.S. Olympic men's basketball team last summer as part of the U.S. Select Team that prepared Team USA for the Paris Olympics. All the reports from those practices and scrimmages indicated that Flagg did more than keep up with the best professional basketball players in the world.

Now with three months of college basketball under his belt, it's clear that the hype was justified for Cooper Flagg, who ranks in the top 10 in the ACC in scoring (3rd), rebounding (9th), assists (8th), and blocks (10th). He has been voted the ACC Rookie of the Week nine times and the ACC Player of the Week four times and broke the ACC's freshman scoring record with 42 points against Notre Dame. Flagg is averaging 19.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game and is shooting 48.5% from the floor and 37.8% from beyond the arc. Stopping him will be Virginia's primary objective in this game, but I'm not sure it's an achievable one.

Joining Flagg in the front court is a player who competed in the 2024 Paris Olympics for South Sudan. 7'2", 250-pound center Khaman Maluach has four double-doubles this season and is coming off of a strong showing against Stanford, as he recorded 17 points, six rebounds, and a block in just 20 minutes of action. For the season, Maluach is averaging 8.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game and he is good for at least one block every game. He also has 49 dunks this season. Maluach and Flagg make finishing at the rim a nightmare for their opponents and Maluach is a potential game-wrecker on the offensive glass. This will be the toughest test of the season for Virginia's much-improved front court.

Duke's starting guards include some familiar names. 6'6" junior guard Tyrese Proctor has played Virginia three times now and had 15 points and five assists in the Blue Devils' rout of the Cavaliers in Durham last season. Proctor is averaging 12.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game, is one of Duke's best three-point shooters at 41.2% on nearly six attempts per game, and is coming off of a very strong game against Stanford in which he made a career-high five threes and matched his season-high with 23 points.

Tony Bennett and the UVA coaching staff heavily pursued 6'7" wing Kon Knueppel on the recruiting trail before the Wisconsin native committed to Duke. Knueppel has played his role well on a stacked Blue Devil roster and has emerged as the team's second-leading scorer behind Flagg at 13.0 points per game. He is shooting 37.7% from three on 5.8 attempts per game and is also a willing and capable passer, averaging 2.4 assists per game and dishing out eight assists against Kansas earlier this season.

Rounding out the starting five is 6'6" guard Sion James, a graduate transfer from Tulane. While not quite rivaling the mind-boggling numbers Andrew Rohde has put up from the point guard position recently, James is on a hot streak distributing the ball, recording 32 assists to just six turnovers over the last eight games. He is also one of the most experienced players in the country with 139 games and 125 starts under his belt. James is also a proficient three-point shooter, connecting on a career-high 40.9% of his triples this season.

Duke's starting five is evidently stacked but Scheyer's squad is deep as well. Coming off the bench is one of the ACC's top three-point shooters in 6'6" guard Isaiah Evans, who shoots 42.4% from three, as well as one of the league's best defenders in 6'9" forward Maliq Brown, a Syracuse transfer and native of Culpeper, Virginia who joined Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn on the 2023-2024 ACC All-Defensive Team. Brown missed almost a month with an injury, but returned at the beginning of February and has shaken off the rust to bring his usual tenacity on the defensive end. The other names to know off the Duke bench are 6'6" forward and Purdue transfer Mason Gillis (4.6 ppg) and 6'5" guard Caleb Foster (5.2 ppg).

Duke is second in the ACC in scoring offense (81.0 ppg) and second in scoring defense (60.8 ppg allowed), first in both field goal percentage (48.5%) and opponent field goal percentage (38.4%), third in three-point shooting (37.8%) and second in three-point defense (31.8%), second in rebounding, and first in assist-to-turnover ratio. If you're looking for weaknesses to exploit on this Duke team, good luck.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. Duke

Cooper Flagg
This one meets the literal definition of "what to watch for", or more specifically, "who to watch for." If nothing else, Monday night's game is appointment viewing due to the opportunity to see one of the rising stars of the sport and a likely future superstar in the NBA. As for this particular game, it will be interesting to see how Virginia chooses to defend against Cooper Flagg. Opponents are tempted to throw everything they have at stopping Flagg since he has the ability to take over games by himself. But since his supporting cast is so strong, Virginia cannot afford to direct too much attention towards Flagg. It might make the most sense for UVA to assign Andrew Rohde, Taine Murray, or Elijah Saunders to defend Flagg one-on-one and only send help when he tries to drive to the rim, with the goal of forcing him to take mostly contested jump shots. He'll still make his fair share of those, but not enough to break the game open (Virginia hopes).

Momentum
Duke has a better record than Virginia by a wide margin, but technically, the Cavaliers are coming into this game on a longer winning streak having won each of their last three games, while the Blue Devils bounced back from their lone ACC loss at Clemson two Saturdays ago by winning comfortably against Cal and Stanford at home. I am in no way suggesting that Virginia is the hotter team in this matchup, but the Cavaliers are playing much better basketball than they were just a month ago (and for most of the season). If we were to live in a world where Virginia makes this a competitive game, some of the indicators would be vast improvements and consistent performances in the games leading up to it and the Hoos have done just that.

Bombs Away
It's difficult to fathom Virginia upsetting Duke without having a very successful outing shooting the ball from the perimeter. The Cavaliers haven't been able to consistently drive and finish at the rim except on rare occasions and I don't see this being one of those games given Duke's athleticism at the guard spots and strong ability to protect the rim with Maluach and Flagg. Virginia is 6-2 this season when making at least 10 three-pointers and the Cavaliers are 7-10 when they fail to hit 10 threes. Living and dying by the three isn't a great strategy for an entire season, but when overmatched by an opponent to this degree, why not let them fly?

Virginia vs. Duke Prediction

Duke is too stacked and too well-coached on both ends of the floor for Virginia to steal this one. The Cavaliers can make this a good game if they continue their recent trend of consistent play and lean on their home court advantage, but I don't see it being enough for the massive upset.

Score prediction: Duke 75, Virginia 63

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