Virginia Basketball vs. Florida Game Preview, Score Prediction

William Smythe | 12 Hours Ago

Virginia Athletics

Despite handling Manhattan and Holy Cross in the wake of the Baha Mar Championship, Virginia needs to exorcise the demons suffered against Tennessee and St. John’s. Interim Head Coach Ron Sanchez is still seeking a signature win in the non-conference slate, with the next major opportunity coming against No. 13 Florida in Gainesville on Wednesday night. We’ve witnessed some development within the roster in terms of point guard play and have had some questions answered, most notably regarding the tightened rotation employed by Sanchez. 

Another stiff challenge awaits against the Gators (8-0) in the ACC/SEC Challenge. Unfortunately, a revenge factor might manifest itself against the ‘Hoos, who defeated Florida 73-70 in the Hall of Fame Series early last season; sophomore center Blake Buchanan starred with 18 points (on ten free throws), while junior guard Isaac McKneely scored nine on 50% 3PT. Let’s preview the Gators, the ‘Hoos, and some of the keys to the game in this critical matchup.

Read on for a full preview for Virginia vs. Florida, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, keys to the game, and a prediction for Wednesday night's matchup.

Virginia vs. Florida Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (5-2) at Florida Gators (8-0)

When: Wednesday, December 4th at 7:15pm ET

Where: O'Connell Center in Gainesville, FL

How to watch: ESPN2/ESPN+

How to listen: Sirius XM 371, SXM App 371 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

All-time series: tied 2-2

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Florida 73-70 on November 10th, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Virginia vs. Florida Game Notes

• Virginia and Florida are meeting for the second season in a row, but for the first time as part of the SEC/ACC Challenge.
• UVA is 2-2 all-time against Florida in a series that dates back to 1992.
• The Cavaliers defeated the Gators 73-70 in the Hall of Fame Series last season at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.
• Florida defeated Virginia in the first round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament and in the second round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament.
• UVA defeated Florida in the semifinals of the 1992 NIT in the first-ever meeting between the two programs.
• This will be the first time these two teams are meeting on the campus of one of the two schools, as each of the previous four games were played at neutral sites.
• Virginia is 1-0 in the ACC/SEC Challenge, beating Texas A&M 59-47 in the inaugural edition of the Challenge last season in Charlottesville.
• UVA is 0-2 against ranked opponents this season, falling to Tennessee and St. John's in The Bahamas.
• Virginia is 70-63 all-time against current members of the Southeastern Conference.

See score updates for the 2024 ACC/SEC Challenge here: 2024 ACC/SEC Basketball Challenge Score Updates

Scouting Report: Florida

2023-2024: 24-12, 11-7 SEC (6th), Lost in NCAA 1st Round
2024-2025: 8-0

The two players to keep an eye on for Florida are senior guard Walter Clayton Jr. and sophomore forward Alex Condon. Both Clayton and Condon played against Virginia last season and recorded 11 and zero points, respectively. Granted, former ‘Hoo and elite defensive talent Reece Beekman contributed to the former’s 3/11 performance from the field, while the latter didn’t see the court much during the non-conference window. Clayton (17.4 PPG) is replicating his second-team All-SEC season alongside a backcourt that includes a returner in senior Will Richard (12.4 PPG) and a newcomer — Alijah Martin (15.1 PPG) — who traveled north from FAU this offseason. Martin made national headlines when he landed a spot on the NCAA All-Tournament team in 2023, having played a massive role in the Owls’ Final Four run. 

Clayton is a savvy, shoot-first guard who has a quick release off of the dribble. A high-level — but not elite — three-point shooter, Virginia ought to pay him close attention even if early into the shot clock. Martin and Richard can pick up the slack if he struggles, but it’s typically the Iona transfer who stirs the straw of the drink that is the ninth-ranked offense on KenPom. A veteran and lengthy backcourt led by Clayton will be a handful for Virginia’s guards. Sophomore Dai Dai Ames will likely get the assignment, which may require some early double-teams.

Florida doesn't have any glaring weaknesses besides suffering from the occasional scoring drought, and the frontcourt is a revolving door of athletic, skilled forwards such as Condon. The Australia native (12.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG) has built upon an impressive freshman campaign and is currently averaging 41.3% from behind the arc, albeit on only 12 attempts. Buchanan and/or freshman Jacob Cofie will be tasked with slowing him down inside. I worry more about Florida’s depth at the position, with four forwards/centers in the rotation averaging at least 6.3 PPG and 4.4 RPG. In short, there’s plenty of ways in which the Gators can attack the ‘Hoos, and it’ll take a high-level defensive effort to play spoiler on the road.

Keys to the Game for Virginia vs. Florida

Crash the boards
Virginia is currently tied for 352nd nationally in offensive rebounds per game (third from last) and tied for 203rd in defensive rebounds. The Gators, however, are ninth and 26th, respectively. In a matchup against a more physical and talented roster, rebounding will be a battle that the ‘Hoos will likely lose. However, they simply need to narrow the gap and hone in on collecting Florida’s offensive putback opportunities — a problem which surfaced against Tennessee’s similarly-constructed frontcourt. The bulk of the burden falls to the 6’11 Buchanan, an underrated defender who knows what it takes to defeat the Gators. Rebounds cannot continue to plague the ‘Hoos. 

Attack Florida's small-ball lineups
If Florida goes small and plays two forwards — sophomore Thomas Haugh (7.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and junior Sam Alexis (7.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG) — Virginia can attack. Both are rated relatively poorly in terms of individual defensive metrics and could face mismatches against Buchanan and a physical athlete in Cofie. Scoring production will still flow from the backcourt, though.

Further unlock Andrew Rohde
Let’s discuss the play of Andrew Rohde (10.0 PPG), who has turned the corner after a dismal 2023-24 campaign. The 6’6” wing has replaced forward TJ Power in the lineup and has perhaps solidified his role in the rotation; Virginia, after struggling to squeeze anything out of Rohde offensively last season, will lean to him for playmaking against a Florida team that will key into McKneely. 

Even with his breakout performances, Rohde’s athleticism ought to be put to the test against high-level SEC competition. He and Ames, however, have operated well together as the ‘Hoos primary ballhandlers. Their progression will dictate Virginia’s season outcome.

Virginia vs. Florida Prediction

Ron Sanchez and the 'Hoos will need a lot to go right to come out on top against one of the best teams in the country, especially on the road. Even if UVA shows signs of progress in competing with an elite team, it likely won't be enough to come away from Florida with a win.

Score prediction: Virginia 65, Florida 78

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