Virginia Basketball vs. Louisville Game Preview, Score Prediction

Matt Newton | 22 Hours Ago

Virginia Athletic

See our game blog for Virginia vs. Louisville with score updates and live analysis here: Virginia vs. Louisville Live Updates | NCAA Men's Basketball

Coming off of its first ACC win of the season, Virginia will look to build some momentum when the Cavaliers host Louisville on Saturday afternoon to wrap-up a five-game homestand at John Paul Jones Arena.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Louisville, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Saturday's matchup.

Virginia vs. Louisville Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (8-5, 1-1 ACC) vs. Louisville Cardinals (9-5, 2-1 ACC)

When: Saturday, January 4th at 4pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena (14,623) in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ACC Network

How to listen: SiriusXM 371, SXM App 371 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

All-time series: Virginia leads 24-5

Last meeting: Virginia defeated Louisville 69-52 on Saturday, January 27th, 2024 at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville.

Virginia vs. Louisville Game Notes

• Virginia leads Louisville 24-5 in the all-time series that dates back to 1924.
• The Cavaliers are 19-2 against the Cardinals since they joined the ACC in 2014.
• UVA is 11-1 all-time against Louisville in Charlottesville and 9-0 at John Paul Jones Arena. The Cardinals haven't beaten the Cavaliers in Charlottesville since 1990.
• Virginia has won 18 of the last 19 meetings against Louisville and comes into this matchup having won the last nine games against the Cardinals.
• Virginia will wrap up a five-game homestand on Saturday. UVA is 3-1 in the first four games of the homestand and is 7-1 at John Paul Jones Arena this season.

Scouting Report: Louisville

2023-2024: 8-24, 3-17 ACC (15th)
2024-2025: 9-5, 2-1 ACC

On January 24th, 2022, Virginia defeated Louisville 64-52 in Charlottesville. Two days later, the Cardinals fired head coach Chris Mack, who had led the program to be the AP No. 1 team in the country just a couple of years earlier. Was the grass greener for Louisville after firing Mack? Well, not exactly. The program hired former Louisville standout and first-time head coach Kenny Payne, who went 12-52 in a miserable two-year stint coaching the Cardinals, including a 5-35 mark in ACC play.

Unfortunately for Virginia, who has had the pleasure of earning free wins against Louisville in the last few years, Payne is out and replacing him is Pat Kelsey, the 2024 Coastal Athletic Association Coach of the Year at College of Charleston.

How much better are things in Louisville with Pat Kelsey at the helm? Well, the Cardinals have already surpassed their win total from last season and come into this game riding a three-game winning streak, most recently taking down North Carolina on New Year's Day.

Like Virginia, Louisville suffered a lopsided loss to Tennessee early in the season. But unlike UVA, the Cardinals delivered a good showing in their non-conference Thanksgiving tournament in Nassau, crushing then-No. 14 Indiana 89-61, beating West Virginia in overtime, and then dropping a close one to Oklahoma in the title game of the Battle 4 Atlantis. That started a rough stretch for the Cards, who lost three of their next four games, but all three of those losses came against ranked opponents, including Duke and Kentucky. After falling to the Wildcats in a hard-fought 93-85 defeat, Louisville has bounced back to beat Florida State, Eastern Kentucky, and then North Carolina 83-70 last Wednesday at home.

Louisville has had a solid start to the season despite facing some significant injury troubles. Starting forward Kasean Pryor was lost for the season to a torn ACL in the Oklahoma game, backup point guard Koren Johnson went down with a shoulder injury after just two games, and two other Cardinals are redshirting this season due to injury. Louisville recently got back forward Aboubacar Traore after he missed 10 games with an arm injury, but he played just a few minutes in the last two games.

As you might expect with a new head coach, Louisville's key personnel are essentially all transfers. Wisconsin transfer guard Chucky Hepburn is the team's leading scorer and main facilitator, averaging 15.9 points and 5.4 assists per game while shooting 33.3% from three. Hepburn scored 26 points in the win over North Carolina, went 16/20 from the free throw line, and had seven assists to just one turnover. He also leads the ACC in steals at 2.6 takeaways per game.

6'6" fifth-year Terrence Edwards Jr. is averaging 14.1 points and 3.6 rebounds per game and is shooting 30.4% from beyond the arc. A transfer from James Madison, Edwards was the Sun Belt Player of the Year last season for the Dukes. Then there's 6'6" Colorado transfer J'Vonne Hadley, who averages 10.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per game.

In the front court, BYU transfer Noah Waterman came to Louisville as a prototypical stretch four, shooting 37.0% from three-point range a season ago as a 6'11", 230-pound big. His sharpshooting hasn't so far translated, though, as Waterman is shooting just 26.9% from three, but is still averaging 7.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. Joining Waterman in the front court is 6'11" center James Scott, who came with Kelsey from Charleston. Scott replaced Pryor in the starting lineup and averages 6.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game while shooting 84.8% from the floor.

Look out for 6'2" guard Reyne Smith coming off the bench. Another College of Charleston transfer, Smith is the team's third-leading scorer at 13.4 points per game and plays almost 30 minutes per game despite not being a normal starter. Smith is Louisville's best three-point shooter at 37.5% from beyond the arc and he attempts more than nine triples per game. The play of Hepburn, Edwards, Smith, and Hadley does most of the heavy lifting for the Louisville offense, accounting for nearly 70% of the team's scoring.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. Louisville

Guard play
Since we just discussed Louisville's guards and wings, let's stay on that topic for another moment as Virginia's perimeter players will be put to the test in this matchup. All four of the Louisville players we just mentioned are capable of putting the ball on the floor and creating shots for themselves. Hepburn is particularly dangerous given his ability to set up shots for open teammates as well. UVA's guard play has been inconsistent at best this season. Even in a great win against NC State last time out in which Isaac McKneely (14 points, three assists) and Andrew Rohde (11 points, seven assists) each had solid games, there was still a major question mark surrounding Dai Dai Ames, who only played nine minutes and it's still unclear if he reaggravated his ankle injury or if there was some other reason he found himself on the bench for the entirety of the second half. As Ames is far and away Virginia's best ball-handler, his availability and performance will be crucial in this matchup. UVA could also use more spark plays from Taine Murray and Ishan Sharma.

Will Virginia's dominance over Louisville continue with new coaches?
Tony Bennett dominated Louisville in his time at Virginia. Whether it was Rick Pitino, Chris Mack, or Kenny Payne on the opposing sideline, the outcome was almost always a victory for Virginia. Now, things are different. Bennett is out and Ron Sanchez is trying admirably to fill his gigantic shoes. Meanwhile, Pat Kelsey is hoping to return Louisville to its glory days and is off to a decent start in that regard. Having dominated the history of this series won't do much to help the Cavaliers on Saturday; they'll have to find a way to win this game themselves.

Can Virginia build some momentum?
December is always an odd portion of the basketball schedule. Between exam break and holiday break, fewer games are played and it's difficult to get a sense of how a team is trending. Virginia started the month with a blowout loss at Florida and then lost a second-half lead at SMU with a brutal drought to end the game. The Cavaliers recovered from an embarrassingly bad first half to beat Bethune-Cookman and then delivered a pretty encouraging performance in a 64-62 loss to Memphis. Then came whatever the opposite of a moral victory is against American, as UVA barely survived with a 63-58 win that did nothing to build confidence. Nine days later, the Cavaliers recovered from a 14-point deficit and played their best half of major conference basketball since the Villanova game to earn their first ACC win against NC State. In their first game of the new year, the Hoos are hoping to finally sustain some momentum and start to string some good performances and wins together.

Virginia vs. Louisville Prediction

We've written this about every ACC game Virginia has played so far, but in our defense, it's been true every time. This game is a must-win if the Cavaliers want any chance at sniffing the NCAA Tournament. Home games against quality, but just below elite opponents (Louisville is No. 51 in the NET) are the ones the Hoos have to have. A win means Virginia can head on its road trip to California next week on a two-game ACC win streak (and three-game win streak overall) and brimming with confidence. A loss likely means consistency will elude this team for the rest of the season. We're going with the optimist's take this time.

Score prediction: Louisville 64, Virginia 67

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