Virginia Basketball vs. NC State Preview, Score Prediction

Matt Newton | Dec 31, 2024

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

See our game blog for Virginia vs. NC State with score updates and live analysis here: Virginia vs. NC State Live Updates | NCAA Men's Basketball

The final day of 2024 marks the arrival of the full ACC slate for Virginia, who will play its first ACC home game of the season when NC State visits Charlottesville on New Year's Eve.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. NC State, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Tuesday's matchup.

Virginia vs. NC State Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (7-5, 0-1 ACC) vs. NC State Wolfpack (8-4, 1-0 ACC)

When: Tuesday, December 31st at 12pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena (14,623) in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ESPN2

How to listen: Virginia Sports Radio Network

All-time series: NC State leads 87-70

Last meeting: NC State defeated Virginia 73-65 in overtime in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on March 15th, 2024 in Washington, D.C.

Virginia vs. NC State Game Notes

• NC State leads Virginia 87-70 in the all-time series that dates back to January 27th, 1913.
• UVA is 43-25 against NC State in Charlottesville and 10-2 at John Paul Jones Arena, including a 59-53 overtime victory over the Wolfpack last season.
• The Cavaliers and Wolfpack played three times last season went to overtime in two out of those three games, including a 73-65 win for NC State in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. NC State went on to win the ACC Tournament, earning an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and continuing that run to the Final Four.
• Virginia and NC State have one common opponent so far this season, as both teams played Coppin State in non-conference action. UVA defeated Coppin State 62-45 and NC State beat Coppin State 66-56.

Scouting Report: NC State

2023-2024: 26-15, 9-11 ACC (10th)
2024-2025: 8-4, 1-0 ACC

Kevin Keatts was on the hot seat in Raleigh and might not have survived the offseason had it not been for a missed free throw by Isaac McKneely and a miraculous banked in three-pointer at the buzzer by Michael O'Connell to send the Virginia-NC State ACC Tournament semifinal game to overtime. The Wolfpack wound up beating the Cavaliers in overtime and then knocking off North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, completing the almost unprecedented feat of winning five games in five days (2011 UConn is the only other team to do it), becoming the first double-digit seed to ever win the ACC Tournament, and claiming the program's first ACC Tournament title since 1987. Most importantly, that run propelled the Wolfpack into the NCAA Tournament, where they continued the run, ultimately winning nine-straight games to reach the Final Four, eventually falling to Purdue in the national semifinals.

Now, Keatts and company are looking to sustain the momentum from last year's magical postseason run into a big 2024-2025 season. The jury is still out on this year's NC State squad, as the Wolfpack are just about just about in the same ballpark as the Cavaliers. The most recent NET rankings have Virginia at No. 102 and NC State at No. 103.

NC State opened the season with five-straight unimpressive wins and then suffered three-straight losses to good teams (Purdue, BYU, and Texas), but all three were fairly close. Since then, the Wolfpack have won three of their last four, including an 84-74 overtime win over Florida State in their ACC opener and the lone loss came on the road at Kansas.

NC State experienced some significant roster turnover, with DJ Horne, DJ Burns, Mohamed Diarra, and former Cavalier Casey Morsell all leaving, but Michael O'Connell, Jayden Taylor, Ben Middlebrooks and Dennis Parker Jr. are back and the Wolfpack also added some impactful transfers in Marcus Hill (Bowling Green and Southern Union State CC), Dontrez Styles (Georgetown and North Carolina), and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (Louisville and Tennessee).

Marcus Hill and Jayden Taylor, both 6'4" senior guards, are NC State's only double-digit scorers. Hill is averaging 12.6 points per game, but is not a very good or willing three-point shooter, getting most of his points inside the arc and at the rim. Taylor converts at 32.6% from three and is averaging 12.4 points per game. Facilitating NC State's offense is Michael O'Connell, who is averaging 4.0 assists to just 1.0 turnover per game while also scoring 6.5 points per game, but his three-point shooting has declined to a career-low 28.6% after shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc last season.

Manning the front court is 6'10" senior forward Ben Middlebrooks, who is averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game and leads the ACC in blocks at 1.7 rejections per game. Fellow 6'10" forward and Louisville transfer Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (9.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has started seven games this season as well, but recently NC State has opted for a smaller starting five with 6'6" wing Dontrez Styles (9.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg) rounding out the starting lineup. Styles is the team's best volume three-point shooter, knocking down 35.6% of his triples of nearly four attempts per game. Look out for guards Breon Pass (5.7 ppg, 57.1% 3pt FG), Trey Parker (3.8 ppg), and Dennis Parker Jr. (3.0 ppg) off the bench.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. NC State

Turnover Battle
Virginia has had a bad time with turnovers this season and it remains one of the team's biggest concerns heading into ACC play. This game will be a huge test in that area, as NC State forces 14.5 turnovers per game, good for fourth in the ACC. The Wolfpack lead the ACC and rank in the top 20 nationally with a +4.8 turnover margin and they only turn the ball over 9.7 times per game, fewest in the ACC. Most importantly, in NC State's eight wins this season, the team is averaging 20.6 points per game off of turnovers as compared to just 8.8 points per game off of turnovers in the four losses the Wolfpack have suffered. So, it seems pretty simple: Virginia's path to winning this game is by taking care of the basketball and neutralizing what is perhaps the Wolfpack's greatest strength.

Hold in transition, defend the paint
NC State is a below-average three-point shooting team and ranks 342nd in three-pointers attempted. In lieu of perimeter shooting, the Wolfpack rely heavily on points in the paint and fast break points. According to NC State's game notes, the Wolfpack are 8-1 when they outscore their opponent in the paint and 0-3 when they are outscored in the paint and they are averaging 41.8 points in the paint in their wins as compared to 25.3 points in the paint in their losses. Additionally, NC State leads the ACC and ranks top ten in the country in fast break points, another essential key to the team's offensive success. Virginia must deny the Wolfpack in transition and the Cavaliers must be strong and disciplined in their interior defense. This game will be an immense challenge for Blake Buchanan, Jacob Cofie, and Elijah Saunders.

Familiar Foes
Not only are Virginia and NC State ACC rivals, but the two teams have played a lot of basketball against each other recently. Tuesday's game will be the fourth time the Cavaliers and Wolfpack are meeting in calendar year 2024. The first matchup was a decisive 76-60 win for NC State in Raleigh. The next two were much more dramatic, with Virginia winning in overtime in Charlottesville and then NC State winning the rubber match in the ACC Tournament semifinals in miraculous fashion, sparking the Wolfpack's run to the Final Four. Many of the players have changed and of course Tony Bennett is no longer walking the sidelines for Virginia, but just ask Isaac McKneely and Michael O'Connell if this particular matchup means something special to them.

Virginia vs. NC State Prediction

The arrival of the full ACC schedule immediately presents the Cavaliers with what could be their final chances to turn this season around in time to make a run at the NCAA Tournament. SMU is currently ranked No. 30 in the NET, so it's possible that the Mustangs are just a really good team and UVA could still have a path to a successful season by beating most of the rest of the "down" ACC. But that pretty much has to start on Tuesday against a team that, at least according to the NET, is essentially on the same level as Virginia. It's time for Ron Sanchez and the Cavaliers to show what they're made of.

Score prediction: NC State 57, Virginia 59

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