Virginia Basketball vs. North Carolina Game Preview, Score Prediction

Matt Newton | Feb 22, 2025

Aaron Snyder

See our game blog for Virginia vs. North Carolina with score updates and live analysis here: Virginia vs. North Carolina Live Updates | NCAA Men’s Basketball

Virginia will continue its three-game stretch against Tobacco Road schools when the Cavaliers visit North Carolina on Sunday afternoon at the Dean Dome.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia at North Carolina, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Saturday's matchup.

Virginia vs. North Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (13-13, 6-9 ACC) at North Carolina Tar Heels (16-11, 9-6 ACC)

When: Saturday, February 22nd at 4pm ET

Where: Smith Center (21,750) in Chapel Hill, NC

How to watch: ESPN2

Commentators: Dave O'Brien (Play-by-Play), Cory Alexander (Analyst)

How to listen: SiriusXM 386, SXM App 976 | Virginia Sports Radio Network | Tar Heel Sports Network

All-time series: North Carolina leads 135-62

Last meeting: North Carolina defeated Virginia 54-44 on February 24th, 2024 in Charlottesville

Virginia vs. North Carolina Game Notes

• North Carolina leads Virginia 135-62 in the all-time series that dates back to February of 1911.
• The Tar Heels are 68-9 against the Cavaliers in Chapel Hill and 26-7 against UVA at Smith Center.
• UNC has won the last two games against UVA at Smith Center.
• Virginia is 2-3 in the last five games against North Carolina and 6-4 in the last 10 games.
• North Carolina is currently sixth in the ACC standings with a 9-6 record in conference play, while Virginia is tied for 11th with a 6-9 record in ACC play.

Scouting Report: North Carolina

2023-2024: 29-8, 17-3 ACC (1st)
2024-2025: 16-11, 9-6 ACC (6th)

North Carolina said goodbye to Armando Bacot, Harrison Ingram, and Cormac Ryan from last year's team that won the ACC regular season title and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Tar Heels returned RJ Davis and a very talented and promising supporting cast, so they were expected to, at the very least, contend towards the top of the ACC once again. Those expectations were reflected in the ACC preseason poll, with the Heels being picked to finish second and receiving 11 first-place votes.

With that context, this season cannot be seen as anything other than a disappointment for Hubert Davis and company. UNC has 11 losses overall, is almost completely out of the picture for a double-bye in the ACC Tournament with a 9-6 conference record, and is currently the fourth team out in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology for the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina played a brutal non-conference slate with games against Kansas, Dayton, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, Florida, and UCLA. The Heels beat Dayton and UCLA, but lost the rest of those matchups.

ACC play started well enough, with UNC winning five of its first six games to open the conference schedule. Since then, North Carolina is 4-5 over its last nine games, with each of those five losses coming against teams ranked in the top eight of the ACC standings. UNC has won its last two games though, winning at Syracuse 88-82 and then completing the season sweep over NC State with a 97-73 beatdown on Wednesday at the Dean Dome.

Hubert Davis has mixed up his starting lineups quite a bit this season, with eight different players starting double-digit games. Guards RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau are the only two who have started every game. Junior forward Ven-Allen Lubin has started the last seven games, graduate forward Jae'Lyn Withers has started the last three, and freshman wing Drake Powell started over junior guard Seth Trimble against NC State.

RJ Davis is in his fifth season in Chapel Hill and has 165 games, 145 starts, over 2,500 points and over 500 assists in his career. He is still one of the best guards in the country, but he's having a down year. His 17.5 points per game scoring average is well down from his 21.2 ppg last season when he was a consensus All-American and the ACC Player of the Year. Davis is shooting a career-low 31.1% from beyond the arc and his 40.2% field goal percentage is the lowest since his freshman season. But even so, Davis is ranked in the top 10 in the ACC in scoring, assists, and assist-to-turnover ratio. The problem for Virginia will be that there is no more Reece Beekman to deploy against Davis defensively.

Joining Davis in the back court is 6'1" sophomore Elliot Cadeau, who leads the Tar Heels in assists with 6.0 assists per game to go along with 10.3 points and 3.1 rebounds per game.

6'4" freshman guard Ian Jackson is having a solid first season in Chapel Hill, scoring 13.6 points per game, second on the team, and knocking down 38.5% of his threes on 4.5 attempts per game, making him the best volume three-point shooter on the team.

6'3" guard Seth Trimble has started 18 games this season and is third on the team in scoring at 12.1 points per game, first in rebounding at 5.5 rebounds per game, and first in steals at 1.5 steals per game.

6'8" forward Ven-Allen Lubin is on his third school in as many years, having transferred from Notre Dame to Vanderbilt and now to North Carolina, where he is averaging 6.9 points and 4.8 rebounds per game.

Former Louisville transfer Jae'Lyn Withers, a 6'9" graduate forward, averages 5.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. He is also the team's best three-point shooter by average at 42.9%, but he attempts only 1.6 threes per game. 6'6" freshman wing Drake Powell (6.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and 6'10" junior forward Jalen Washington (6.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg) will also get significant minutes for UNC in the front court.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. North Carolina

Who guards RJ Davis?
We were treated to some great head-to-head battles between Reece Beekman and RJ Davis over the last four years. Neither player dominated the matchup and the outcome of their duel didn't always reflect in the final score of the game. Davis went for 24 points in the quarterfinals of the 2023 ACC Tournament, but Virginia won the game. Beekman held Davis to 1/14 shooting and just 12 points in the final matchup between those two players last year, but North Carolina won that game in Charlottesville. Who will UVA stick on Davis now? Dai Dai Ames? Isaac McKneely? Taine Murray? Whoever he is, he won't be as effective as the two-time ACC Defensive Player of the Year.

Three-Point Defense
North Carolina is a middling three-point shooting team, ranking 10th in the ACC with a 33.2% three-point shooting average. But the Tar Heels have been hot recently, knocking down 40% or more of their three-point attempts in three of their last four games. UNC won each of those three games, but in the one loss, the Heels shot a dismal 4/19 (21.1%) from beyond the arc in a blowout loss at Clemson. North Carolina has some streaky shooters; keeping those shooters cold should be a top priority for the UVA defense.

Road Warriors?
After starting the season 1-7 away from Charlottesville and 0-5 in true road games, Virginia has won each of its last three road games, with each one arguably more impressive than the last. First, UVA went to Coral Gables and outgunned the Hurricanes in a shootout. Then, the Cavaliers crushed the Pitt Panthers on their home floor. Last weekend, Virginia went into Blacksburg and beat Virginia Tech at Cassell Coliseum for the first time since before COVID-19. The Hoos can continue that trend with a big win in Chapel Hill on Saturday.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction

The Cavaliers have improved significantly in the last few weeks, but particularly on the road, as we just discussed. But North Carolina has been excellent at home all season with a 10-2 record at Dean Smith Center. UVA has what it takes to make this a game and even win it, but UNC will lean on its home court advantage to send Virginia home with a loss.

Score prediction: Virginia 65, North Carolina 70

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