Virginia Basketball vs. Villanova Game Preview, Score Prediction

Matt Newton | Nov 14, 2024

Virginia Athletic

Virginia will face its first major conference opponent of the season when the Cavaliers head to Baltimore to take on Villanova on Friday evening as part of the Hall of Fame Series at CFG Bank Arena. The Wildcats and Wahoos are meeting for the first time since 2017, when these two programs played a pair of instant classics in consecutive seasons as top-ranked teams.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Villanova, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a prediction for Friday's matchup.

Virginia vs. Villanova Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (2-0) vs. Villanova Wildcats (2-2)

When: Friday, November 15th at 5pm ET

Where: CFG Bank Arena in Baltimore, MD

How to watch: TNT

How to listen: SiriusXM 371, SXM App 371 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

All-time series: Virginia leads 5-3

Last meeting: Villanova defeated Virginia 61-59 on January 29th, 2017 in Philadelphia.

Virginia vs. Villanova Game Notes

• Virginia leads Villanova 5-3 in the all-time series, which dates back to 1981.
• The Wildcats won the most recent meeting between the two programs, knocking off the Cavaliers on a buzzer-beating putback by Donte DiVincenzo on January 29th, 2017 when Villanova was ranked No. 1 in the country.
• The year prior, Virginia defeated Villanova 86-75 in December of 2015 in Charlottesville, but the Wildcats went on to win the National Championship that season.
• UVA is 2-0 against Villanova at neutral sites, including a 54-50 victory in the round of 32 in the 1981 NCAA Tournament, which was the first-ever meeting between these two programs, and a 73-65 win in December of 1989 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
• Virginia is 29-37 all-time against current members of the Big East. UVA faces a Big East opponent for the first time since defeating Providence 58-50 on November 23rd, 2021 in Brooklyn.

Opponent Scouting Report: Villanova

2023-2024: 18-16, 10-10 Big East
2024-2025: 2-2

Virginia and Villanova have combined to win three of the last eight national championships and have a combined four Final Four appearances over that span. But things haven't been quite as glorious for either program since these two teams were kings of college basketball in 2016, 2018, and 2019. UVA hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since the 2019 national title run and Tony Bennett announced his surprising retirement at the young age of 55 just a few weeks before this season began. Villanova, meanwhile, is in year 3 of its post-Jay Wright era, as the Hall of Famer retired at the age of 60 after leading the Wildcats to the Final Four in 2022.

Just as Virginia is rolling with Bennett's longtime assistant Ron Sanchez as interim head coach for this season, Villanova chose Wright's longtime assistant Kyle Neptune, who served as head coach at Fordham for one season before returning to the Wildcats to become Wright's successor. While it remains to be seen how Sanchez will do as he tries to fill Bennett's shoes, the jury may be out on Neptune, who is on one of the hottest seats in college basketball. Villanova is 37-35 under Neptune, posting sixth-place finishes in the Big East each of the last two years and missing the NCAA Tournament both times. This season, the Wildcats are 2-2 so far with tough losses to Columbia and St. Joe's. Their victories are over Lafayette and NJIT.

These disappointing outcomes do not appear to be due to a lack of talent. Villanova has a bonafide star in 6'8" senior forward Eric Dixon, who is averaging 26.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game and is shooting a blistering 52.6% from three on more than six attempts per game. Sanchez and the Cavaliers would be well suited to devote much of their defensive game planning towards containing Dixon, though the Wildcats do have three other double digit scorers.

There's Miami transfer Wooga Poplar, a 6'5" guard averaging 15.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game and shooting 38.9% from three. The two main facilitators of Villanova's offense are 5'11" senior guard Jhamir Brickus (12.0 ppg, 4.5 apg) and 6'5" senior guard Jordan Longino (10.0 ppg, 3.5 apg), but neither of them are particularly good three-point shooters so far this season. The Wildcats run a nine-man rotation, but expect the bulk of their scoring to come from these four players.

For a more in-depth scouting report on Villanova and a comment on the overall trajectories of these two programs, click here: Eight Years Later, Virginia and Villanova Meet Under Different Circumstances

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. Villanova

Virginia's first real test
The Cavaliers are 2-0 so far and winning games should never be taken for granted, but there is nothing that impressive about their victories over Campbell and Coppin State. Villanova has similarly not played a very tough schedule so far, but has still been tripped up twice. More challenging opponents await Virginia in the near future, but this will be the first opportunity for us to see Sanchez and company contend with another major conference team with real talent and physicality. We're going to learn a lot on Friday about some of these new faces, especially the young guys like Jacob Cofie, and how they do when the quality of basketball competition goes up a few notches, as well as how Virginia's defense fares against a team with high levels of playmaking and shot-making potential.

How does Virginia defend Eric Dixon?
Dixon is a highly versatile player, capable of scoring at all three levels. Virginia's forwards have done well on the defensive end so far, but Jacob Cofie and Elijah Saunders have yet to face a player with the talent and ability even close to that of Eric Dixon. Expect the Cavaliers to make Dixon pass the ball, doubling him inside the arc and harassing him on ball screens in order to make someone else beat them. It will also take a connected effort from the rest of the UVA defense to recover effectively when Villanova tries to take advantage of all the attention the Hoos are paying to Dixon. With so many new faces on the team, this will be a big test for Virginia's Pack Line Defense.

UVA's point guard situation
Virginia has had two different starting point guards for its first two games. Dai Dai Ames got the start for the Cavaliers against Coppin State on Monday with Andrew Rohde out with a back injury. It was apparently a game-time decision, so UVA should have Rohde back for this game. Virginia should still start Ames at point guard, though, as the Kansas State transfer was vastly more impressive than Rohde, but the Hoos absolutely need Rohde's services as a secondary ball handler and backup point guard for whenever Ames is off the floor. Jalen Warley's transfer and the injury to Christian Bliss have made the Cavaliers very thin at point guard. They're going to need Ames and Rohde to play and play well if they're going to come away from Baltimore with the win.

Virginia vs. Villanova Prediction

The next seven days will tell us a great deal about this year's Virginia basketball team. The Cavaliers face Villanova, then Tennessee and either Baylor or St. John's next week. The Wildcats haven't been impressive so far, but neither have the Cavaliers. It's too early to be thinking about the NCAA Tournament, but these non-conference games against major conference opponents are major pieces to a team's postseason resume. UVA is going to have a tough time in both games in the Bahamas - a win is not guaranteed on that trip - which makes this Friday's game against Villanova essential. I think Virginia proves to be up to the task and passes this first test.

Score prediction: Villanova 62, Virginia 65

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