Virginia Football: Five Keys for UVA to Make a Bowl Game in 2024

Duncan McGrath | Aug 13, 2024

Significant improvements from the offensive line is one of five keys necessary for Virginia football to make a bowl game in 2024. / Virginia Athletics

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Virginia Cavaliers

Making a bowl game will not be an easy feat for UVA head coach Tony Elliott to accomplish this season. A couple of weeks ago Virginia was picked to finish 16th out of 17 teams in the 2024 ACC Football Preseason Poll. Several sportsbooks have also set Virginia's win total for this season at 4.5, showing that it will be an uphill climb for Virginia to reach the postseason. Nonetheless, making a bowl game is certainly possible for UVA this season, so let’s take a look at some of the keys it will take to make it happen.

Have to Close out Games Better

One of the reasons UVA has only won three games in each of the last two seasons is Virginia’s inability to close games in the fourth quarter. Last year, the Cavaliers lost a staggering four games during which the Hoos at one point held a double-digit lead, which is inexcusable. In key spots in the clutch, Virginia had chances to win and could not get it done. Sometimes it was turnovers that plagued the Hoos. Sometimes it was the defense that couldn’t quite get the stop in the fourth quarter that was needed. Sometimes it was poor coaching decisions that let UVA down. Regardless, UVA had a fourth quarter margin last season of -60. For reference, Virginia’s margin in the first three quarters for the year was -70 (+14 if you take out the Tennessee, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech games). Clearly, Virginia was a worse football team last season in the fourth quarter, which needs to change in order for the Hoos to make a bowl game this season.

Better Injury Luck

Last year, it is sufficient to say that Virginia had disastrous injury luck. UVA’s starting QB, Tony Muskett, got hurt in the season opener against Tennessee and missed several weeks. Kam Butler, Olasunkonmi Agunloye, Antonio Clary, and other impactful players suffered season-ending injuries early in the year. With UVA’s lack of depth, the Cavaliers could not afford the loss of so many impactful players last season. This year, Virginia has already had some important injuries with the loss of Mekhi Buchannan and Stevie Bracey for the season, but this UVA roster is much better situated to recover from losing a couple of key players. Virginia has much more playable depth throughout the roster (especially at offensive line line, wide receiver, and in the secondary) as a result of having played several young players last season and continuing to add in the transfer portal. Nevertheless, Virginia only has so much depth on the roster and will need some better injury luck to be in position to make a bowl game.

Improvement with the Offensive Line

Even though Virginia did have bad injury luck on the offensive line last year, the offensive line play was simply nowhere near good enough for UVA to make a bowl game. Last season, Virginia had virtually no run game to speak of, finishing second to last in the ACC in rushing yards per game with 117.9. In total, the Cavaliers averaged only 3.1 yards per carry, which ranked 123rd out of 133 teams in the FBS. Xavier Brown’s return from injury and Kobe Pace coming back for another year should help the running game improve, but the offensive line must get significantly better to help Virginia establish some kind of ground attack on offense.

The offensive line also really struggled last season in protecting the quarterback. Last year, the Hoos allowed 3.6 sacks per game, which ranked among the worst in the country. Consistently, teams were able to pressure the QB against Virginia, and the Cavaliers did not have enough resistance. This year, UVA has much more continuity on the offensive line and did add in the transfer portal, but the pass protection needs to improve in a major way. Last year, there were too many defenses that Virginia could not block, which cannot happen this year if Virginia wants to make a bowl game.

A Much More Disruptive Defensive Line

It wasn’t just the offensive line that struggled last year for Virginia. The defensive line was just as bad and arguably worse in certain areas. In 2023, the Cavaliers did lose a couple of key players on the defensive line to season-ending injuries, but the production was still not good enough with the players that did see the field. Last season, Virginia was one of the worst teams in the FBS in terms of getting to the QB, averaging only .9 sacks per game. Virginia's 11 total sacks last year ranked not only dead last in the ACC but also dead last among all FBS teams.

This season, Virginia brings a couple of key guys back in Kam Butler, Chico Bennett Jr., and Jahmeer Carter and should have much more playable depth on the defensive line this year. Virginia lost Mekhi Buchanan for the season earlier in fall camp, but the team is built much better this year to combat injuries. In any case, UVA’s defensive line will need to take a massive leap forward to help the Cavaliers return to the postseason.

Need to Win Three Games in Non-Conference Play

Virginia’s chances of making a bowl game will be impacted significantly by how the Cavaliers are able to perform in non-conference play early in the season. In the season opener, UVA should be able to take care of business against Richmond at home. However, the Cavaliers also have an early season meeting at home against Maryland and a difficult road trip to Coastal Carolina before the end of September. These two matchups are not necessarily must-win games, but UVA’s chances of making a bowl will go down significantly with a loss in either one.

For starters, Virginia will most likely lose on the road to Notre Dame later in the season in a non-conference matchup, meaning that UVA would have to win four games in the ACC to reach a bowl. The Cavaliers have a couple of favorable matchups at home in conference play, but there are several toss-up games for UVA that happen to come on the road this year. In the ACC, UVA plays Wake Forest, Clemson, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech all on the road. Wake Forest and Pittsburgh are games that Virginia can win, but beating Clemson or Virginia Tech will be a major challenge. At home, Virginia does have winnable matchups in Boston College, Louisville, North Carolina, and SMU. However, Tony Elliott has only gone 3-12 so far in the ACC in his first two years in the program. Given the challenges that Elliott has had in the ACC in his first two seasons, it will be important for UVA to win three games in non-conference play in order to make a bowl. Winning only two non-conference games wouldn’t ruin Virginia’s chances of making a bowl, but the path to the postseason would become much more challenging.