Virginia Football vs. North Carolina Game Preview, Score Prediction

Matt Newton | 3 Hours Ago

Virginia Athletics

Virginia and North Carolina will renew the South's Oldest Rivalry for the 129th time on Saturday afternoon in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers are looking to snap a two-game losing skid, while the Tar Heels are hoping to get back in the win column for the first time in more than a month, as they come in having lost their last four games. Both teams are desperate for a win, but only one will leave Scott Stadium with a key ACC victory on Saturday.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. North Carolina with everything you need to know, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (4-3, 2-2 ACC) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-4, 0-3 ACC)

When: Saturday, October 26th at 12pm ET

Where: Scott Stadium (61,500) in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: The CW Network

How to listen: SiriusXM 138 or 194, SXM App 956 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

All-time series: North Carolina leads 65-59-4

Last meeting: Virginia defeated then-No. 10 North Carolina 31-27 on October 21st, 2023 in Chapel Hill.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Game Notes

• The series between Virginia and North Carolina, which began with a 30-18 UVA victory on October 22nd, 1892 in Charlottesville, is tied with Georgia-Auburn as the second-most played rivalry in all of college football (129th meeting this season), trailing only Wisconsin-Minnesota, which has been played 133 times.
• UVA and UNC have played each other every season since 1919 and the Tar Heels lead the all-time series 65-59-4, though both programs count the 1956 meeting as win, as North Carolina forfeited that game due to the use of an ineligible player.
• Virginia leads North Carolina 27-26 in games played in Charlottesville, but the series is tied at 23-23 in games played at Scott Stadium.
• UVA has won five of the last seven meetings against UNC, including a 31-27 upset victory over then-No. 10 North Carolina last year in Chapel Hill. That was Virginia's first road victory over a top 10 opponent in program history after being 0-30 in those games up to that point.

Read Virginia's injury report for the North Carolina game here: UVA Football Week 9 Injury Report: James Jackson, Antonio Clary, Ty Furnish

See below for UVA's week 9 depth chart for the UNC game:

Virginia Cavaliers football depth chart for week 9 vs. North Carolina. / Virginia Athletic

Opponent Scouting Report: North Carolina

2023: 8-5, 4-4 ACC
2024: 3-4, 0-3 ACC

The post-Drake Maye era of North Carolina football opened with a gutsy victory at Minnesota, but starting quarterback Max Johnson went down with a season-ending injury, bringing even more uncertainty to the most important position on the field for the Heels. Things have stabilized a bit on that front, with Jacolby Criswell emerging as the new starter. Criswell has had a unique college football journey, as he started his career at UNC in 2020 before transferring to Arkansas, where he played in eight games over the next three seasons before heading back to Chapel Hill.

Criswell has played fine enough, throwing for 1,367 yards and eight touchdowns to three interceptions, but the engine of the UNC offense is All-American running back and possible first round NFL Draft pick Omarion Hampton. The ACC's leading rusher and the fourth-leading rusher in the country, Hampton has 901 yards and seven touchdowns and has rushed for at least 100 yards in six out of the seven games so far this season. Hampton had a decent, but not incredible game against Virginia last season, rushing for 112 yards on 19 carries.

Despite having to figure out a difficult quarterback position, UNC started the year 3-0 and should have started 4-0 if not for a horrendous defensive performance against James Madison in which the Tar Heels surrendered 611 yards of total offense and suffered a mind-boggling 70-50 defeat on their home field. That game did not mark the start of a spiral for the UNC defense, which held Duke to 20 points the following week, but lost 21-20. But consistency has eluded the Heels on the defensive side of the ball, as then came a 34-24 loss to a still-unbeaten Pittsburgh team and a 41-34 defeat to Georgia Tech to drop them to 3-4 overall.

North Carolina ranks in the bottom of the ACC in most defensive categories (14th scoring defense, 15th total defense, 12th pass defense, 15th rushing defense) despite having a number of quality defensive playmakers, including linebacker Power Echols, who leads the Heels with 48 total tackles, defensive lineman Jahvaree Ritzie, who leads the team with five sacks, and linebacker Amare Campbell, who paces UNC with 6.0 tackles for loss.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. North Carolina

Omarion Hampton vs. UVA Run Defense
After giving up fewer than 100 rushing yards against Coastal Carolina and Boston College, the Virginia defense has regressed since then, allowing 177 yards on the ground to Louisville and then a season-high 194 yards to Clemson last weekend. It's more important than ever that the Cavaliers get their run defense back on track as they face the ACC's leading rusher Omarion Hampton, who has the ability to take over the game with a couple of big runs and, perhaps more importantly, the potential the give his team a crucial edge in time of possession if the Heels are able to run the ball at will.

Time of Possession, Third Down Conversions
Speaking of time of possession, neither team has been particularly consistent in winning the possession battle and both teams are mediocre in terms of converting on third downs and getting off the field on third downs on defense. Virginia ranks 13th in the ACC in third down conversions (35.8%) and North Carolina ranks 12th (37.9%), while UVA ranks 12th in opponent third down conversions (38.0%) and UNC ranks 8th (33.7%). In a game that could be dominated by the offenses, whichever team can come up with the crucial third down stop and get off the field will likely win the game.

Dynamic, but Careful Anthony Colandrea
In a game that could very turn into a shootout, the Cavaliers may need the gunslinging version of Anthony Colandrea to come out in this one, but they also need him to continue to protect the ball. He's gone the last four games without throwing an interception and that streak needs to continue, but Virginia also needs him to take a few more risks in order to cash in on big plays, the type of plays that the Cavaliers didn't hit on in the Clemson game until it was too late. Colandrea has shown he can be smart with the football, but now he needs to show he can be dynamic, while still being careful.

Virginia vs. North Carolina Prediction

With their last win coming back on September 14th and their last ACC win coming in November of 2023, the Tar Heels are desperate for a victory. But the Cavaliers need to play with some desperation as well. Their closing four-game stretch (at No. 19 Pitt, at No. 12 Notre Dame, vs. No. 22 SMU, at Virginia Tech) is a brutal one and their best paths to picking up the two more wins needed to reach bowl eligibility all have this Saturday's contest labeled as a must-win game. It might take a shootout, but Virginia comes away with a pivotal win and hands North Carolina its fifth-straight loss.

Score prediction: North Carolina 31, Virginia 37

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