Virginia Football: What is UVA's Most Probable Path to a Bowl Game?

Predicting the route to the Cavaliers' first bowl game since 2021

Anthony Colandrea and Kobe Pace's performances for the remainder of the season will be critical to Virginia's bowl hopes. / Virginia Athletics

Virginia football has not qualified for a bowl game since 2021 (which was canceled due to COVID-19 complications), has not played in a bowl game since 2019 (Orange Bowl against Florida), and has not won a bowl game since 2018 in the Belk Bowl against South Carolina, where the Cavaliers handled the Gamecocks 28-0.

It's still very early, but there are at least some in the college football world who think that Virginia's 3-1 start has the Cavaliers on the track to making a bowl game for the first time under Tony Elliott:
ESPN Has Virginia Making a Bowl Game in Latest Projections, Too Soon?

Before Virginia can even think about winning a bowl game, the Cavaliers need to become bowl-eligible by reaching the illustrious six-win mark, one that, although it seems easy, only having to win six of 12 games, is much more challenging than it looks. Currently, Virginia is halfway there with wins against Richmond, Wake Forest, and Coastal Carolina. Despite this, in the final eight games, Virginia is only projected to win one of those. Let's take a look at the schedule and lay out which are the must-win games on Virginia's most likely path to a bowl appearance: 

Take Advantage of the Bye Week, Then Beat Boston College (October 5th)

The Cavaliers are currently amidst their first bye week of the season in territory many players have not experienced on this roster, having a winning record. With that said, it's crucial that Virginia is active and uses this bye week appropriately to rest, recover, and prepare to host Boston College. Last year, Virginia led BC 21-7 at halftime before losing 27-24. Although the Eagles have a new coach, Bill O'Brien, it's a similar roster, with quarterback Thomas Castellanos leading the charge. Despite his improvement this season, if the Cavaliers could keep it close last year, they can do it again. 

Virginia Football vs. Boston College Kickoff Time & TV Designation Announced

It will also be Homecomings Weekend at UVA; expect a good crowd in Hooville. 

Win the South's Oldest Rivalry at Home Against North Carolina (October 25th)

The one game that the Cavaliers are projected to win in this final eight-game stretch is against the Tar Heels, who are coming off a brutal defeat last week to James Madison 70-50; yes, you read that score right. North Carolina's season is in disarray after losing starting quarterback Max Johnson in the season opener against Minnesota, where he suffered a broken leg. With Johnson out, running back Omarion Hampton has become the primary threat on the UNC offense. Virginia will be one step closer to bowl eligibility if the Cavaliers can stop the run. 

Give SMU a Proper ACC Welcome (November 23rd) 

The week before traveling to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers will welcome one of the ACC's newest members in SMU to Charlottesville for Virginia's final home game of the season. The Mustangs are still trying to establish their identity with a statement win over TCU 66-42, yet an 18-15 loss to BYU and a close win over Nevada 29-24. Kevin Jennings commands SMU as quarterback for the second season in a row, and with the Mustangs falling to Boston College at the end of last year, this is certainly a winnable game for the Cavaliers at home. 

In Summary, Take Advantage of Home Turf

Let's be honest. Scott Stadium is probably among college football's least intimidating Power Five environments. A large chunk of the student section is usually gone by halftime, and the stadium is never truly packed. Despite this, Virginia has been 26-14 at Scott Stadium since 2018. The Cavaliers find ways to win at home, and if Virginia is going to find three wins in these final eight games, they will all most likely be on the grass of David A. Harrison III Field. Besides Boston College, North Carolina, and SMU, the Cavalier's other home game is against Louisville on October 12th.

The games at Clemson and Notre Dame are the most difficult on the schedule and the regular season finale at Virginia Tech will obviously be an uphill battle for the Cavaliers, no matter how bad the Hokies look right now. Even the road trip to Pitt looks more and more challenging as the Panthers continue to win games. Of course, Virginia could pull off a shocker and win any of those games with the right mix of fortune and execution, but in terms of probability, UVA's most likely path to a bowl game includes home victories over Boston College, North Carolina, and SMU.

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