Virginia Lacrosse: Five Keys to Sunday's Quarterfinal Rematch vs. Johns Hopkins

Matt Newton | May 18, 2024

Joey Terenzi and McCabe Millon celebrate after a goal during the Virginia men's lacrosse NCAA Tournament game vs. St. Joe's. / Virginia Athletics

78 days after the Blue Jays handed the Cavaliers their first loss of the season, Virginia has an opportunity to get some revenge on Johns Hopkins in the quarterfinals of the 2024 NCAA Men's Lacrosse Tournament on Sunday at 2:30pm at Unitas Stadium in Towson, Maryland. If UVA is to avenge its loss and advance to Championship Weekend for the fourth time in the last five tournaments, the Cavaliers will have to improve in several areas from the first matchup and more importantly, keep their positive momentum going from last weekend's first round win over St. Joe's.

Ahead of Sunday's game, here's five keys to Virginia vs. Johns Hopkins in the quarterfinals of the NCAA Tournament:

Faceoff battle (X-factor: Anthony Ghobriel)

One pivotal difference from the first meeting between UVA and Hopkins back on March 2nd and the rematch this weekend will be the presence of Anthony Ghobriel. The Navy faceoff transfer is sitting at 56.6% on the season and is ranked No. 2 in the country in faceoff Elo rating on LacrosseReference.com, but he did not play in the first matchup with Johns Hopkins due to an injury. The Blue Jays won the faceoff battle 20-14. The Cavaliers didn't help themselves with 16 turnovers, but Hopkins winning the faceoff by such a margin led to a crucial possession advantage. The faceoff was crucial for the Blue Jays in their first round win over Lehigh, as Tyler Dunn won seven of the nine fourth-quarter draws to help Hopkins close on a 5-1 run to escape with a 13-10 win. With Ghobriel in the lineup, the Cavaliers have some hope to tip the scales in their favor on Sunday.

Turnovers & Ground Balls

The faceoff is just one critical piece of the overall possession battle. Sunday's game pits one of the nation's best in causing turnovers (Virginia) against one of the best teams at taking care of the ball (Johns Hopkins). The Blue Jays rank No. 6 in college lacrosse and first among the remaining teams in the NCAA Tournament in fewest turnovers, while the Cavaliers are first in caused turnovers at 11.75 per game. Those trends were reversed in the first meeting, as Johns Hopkins had 11 caused turnovers as compared to just seven for UVA.

Virginia is also leading the country in ground balls for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, but Johns Hopkins won the ground ball battle 44-35 over UVA in the first meeting. Expect the Cavaliers to attack every faceoff and ground ball with intensity to try to flip the possessions back in their favor this time around.

🧬⚔️ 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱, 𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗗𝗡𝗔.

📝 We've led the nation in ground balls in six of the last seven seasons and are on pace to finish at the top again this year 💯#GoHoos🔸⚔️🔹 pic.twitter.com/xcZ4LgdPU0

— Virginia Men's Lacrosse (@UVAMensLax) May 17, 2024

Cormier and Mr. May, but who else?

Payton Cormier scored a staggering eight goals last week, breaking the NCAA's all-time scoring record in the process. While many of those goals were Cormier doing what he does best, St. Joe's also played some questionable defense and gave college lacrosse's most prolific scorer some looks that were way too open. Don't expect Johns Hopkins to make the same mistakes, focusing its defense on Cormier and Mr. May himself, Connor Shellenberger, who is averaging 6.1 points per game in his 10 career NCAA Tournament games, scoring five or more points in all but one of those games.

But if Virginia is going to succeed in avenging its loss to Johns Hopkins, it can't just be Shellenberger and Cormier running the show offensively. UVA's supporting cast is going to have to show up. In particular, Griffin Schutz, McCabe Millon and Jack Boyden need to capitalize on any openings the Blue Jay defense is willing to give them. A few goals from Ryan Colsey, Patrick McIntosh, or Joey Terenzi could also provide the critical momentum swing the Cavaliers need to come out on top.

Controlled chaos on defense

Virginia's bread and butter on defense is forcing turnovers and thriving on chaos, but Johns Hopkins flipped the script on the Cavaliers in the first matchup, denying UVA any unsettled opportunities for the most part, while capitalizing on some chaotic situations that left Virginia out of sorts on defense. The UVA defense was slightly over-aggressive in the fourth quarter and the Blue Jays cashed in, winning the final period 5-2 to come out of Charlottesville with the win. Virginia's defense was exposed consistently over the last month by ACC opponents, giving up 18 goals three different times to Duke, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. Lars Tiffany admitted after the ACC Tournament that he tinkered too much with a defense that is still relatively inexperienced, so the Cavaliers have made a concerted effort to simplify things and return to being "brilliant at the basics."

The St. Joe's game was a step in the right direction, as Virginia caused 15 turnovers and gave up less layups and wide-open looks to the Hawks, who had only eight goals before garbage time in the fourth quarter. Look for the UVA defense to be aggressive, but more connected in its slide schemes to prevent the Blue Jays from getting anything easy on the crease.

Goalkeeping

There are lots of intricacies within the game of lacrosse and we've discussed many of them already: faceoffs, ground balls, personnel and matchups, and defensive strategies. But sometimes, the game can be boiled down to how well your goalie is performing. In the first meeting, Johns Hopkins goalie Chayse Ierlan decisively won the goalkeeping battle, posting 16 saves to 14 goals allowed, while UVA netminder Matthew Nunes made 11 saves and allowed 16 goals in the loss. Unsurprisingly, Virginia's team success this season is directly related to play of Nunes, with the key threshold being the 50% save mark. When Nunes has a save percentage of at least 50%, Virginia is 10-1. When he's below 50%? UVA is 1-4. the Cavaliers are also 9-3 when Nunes makes at least 10 saves.

Fortunately for Virginia, Matthew Nunes has a track record of stepping up his game in the NCAA Tournament, a trend that returned again last Saturday as he went 50% against St. Joe's. Nunes is 51.3% in six career NCAA Tournament games. And while that includes a bad showing against one of the greatest lacrosse teams of all time, Maryland in the 2022 quarterfinals (18 goals, 11 saves), it also included a couple of really good performances, like a 16-save outing against Brown in his NCAA Tournament debut in 2022 and a 17-save performance against Notre Dame in last year's semifinals. Nunes will need to have a good game on Sunday if Virginia wants to return to the Final Four.

No. 6 seed Virginia (11-5) and No. 3 seed Johns Hopkins (11-4) are set to meet in the NCAA Tournament for the 17th time on Sunday at 2:30pm at Johnny Unitas Stadium in Towson, Maryland. The game will be televised on ESPNU.