Virginia vs. Tennessee: Players to Watch & Keys to the Game

William Smythe | 15 Hours Ago

Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

Most die-hard ‘Hoo fans haven’t forgotten what Tennessee did to Virginia 11 years ago. In December of 2013, Virginia men’s basketball traveled to Knoxville to take on an unranked Tennessee in a New Year’s tune-up. The ‘Hoos, who would go on to secure an ACC Championship title and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, had no answer for a 61.1% 3PT performance from the Vols in an 87-52 loss prior to conference play. Evidently, the Tennessee loss woke Bennett’s crew up from their slumber; Virginia went 21-3 the rest of the way, eventually falling to No. 4 seed Michigan State in the Sweet Sixteen, but that season officially put UVA back on the map.

Now, the Cavaliers will share a court with the No. 11-ranked Volunteers this Thursday in the Bahamas — the first meeting between the two since the 35-point defeat. Both teams will have plenty of rest following weekend contests against Villanova and Austin Peay, respectively, and both will carry undefeated records into the non-conference showdown. 

With Tennessee also passing the eye test against the likes of Gardner-Webb, Louisville, and Montana, Virginia will have to navigate around KenPom’s fourth-ranked defense and work to contain an offense that perhaps improved despite the departure of a First-Team All-American in guard Dalton Knecht (21.7 PPG). One win in the Baha Mar Championship would be a massive step forward for Coach Ron Sanchez, whether it comes against Tennessee, St. John’s, or Baylor. The ‘Hoos do have a successful track record in non-conference tournaments.

Players to Watch in Virginia vs. Tennessee

It’s been quite the journey for Igor Miličić Jr., a transfer from Virginia and a former player under Sanchez at Charlotte — his second collegiate stop. Unfortunately, the ‘Hoos didn’t play the 6’10 forward enough in a season which resulted in an NIT quarterfinal exit. Milicic (14.0 PPG) has steadily improved in his two-plus years following his freshman campaign in Charlottesville, with 18 and 23-point outings against Montana and Austin Peay indicative of his key role in Tennessee’s frontcourt. Coach Rick Barnes’ rosters have often suffered from a lack of interior scoring, and Milicic’s ascendance (albeit over mid-major teams) has complemented perimeter scoring from North Florida’s Chaz Lanier (13.8 PPG) and senior mainstay Zakai Zeigler (15.5 PPG).

The Charlotte transfer has developed a smooth touch around the basket and isn’t afraid to step out and attempt a three-pointer if the opportunity arises. He hasn’t been prolific from behind the arc (33.3%), but Virginia’s frontcourt will have to go big to defend both he and Ohio State transfer Felix Okpara — primarily a rim-protector whose length will provide a challenge for Virginia’s Blake Buchanan. The Vols are also receiving solid reserve minutes from sophomore forward Cade Phillips (7.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG), whose athleticism jumps off the page; both Milicic and Phillips are assignments for junior forward Elijah Saunders and freshman forward/center Jacob Cofie.

The lone starter returning from last year’s Sweet Sixteen roster, Zeigler finally has the keys to the offense. Any improvement in his three-point shooting will be welcomed in Knoxville, as the 5’9 guard is currently averaging 47.4% 3PT after failing to eclipse a 35.2% mark from his freshman season over his last two campaigns. Most importantly, the senior is currently eighth in the country in assists per game (7.8); one of the true well-rounded point guards in today’s college game, he can dish, drive, and make your guards’ lives incredibly difficult for 40 minutes. 

Defensively, he’s a pest. His lateral quickness allows him to smother opposing guards on the perimeter, as evidenced by a 1.8 steal per game clip this season. While Virginia’s Andrew Rohde would hold a significant size advantage over him, he’s not nearly as quick and would require plenty of high ball-screens to create separation from the SEC’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year. It’s plausible that sophomore guard Dai Dai Ames sees the bulk of the Zeigler assignment.

According to EvanMiya — a data-focused college basketball website — Zeigler is the second-most valuable player in the nation, posting an 8.24 BPR. This metric is the “ultimate measure of a player’s overall value to his team when he is on the floor.” While Tennessee hasn’t exactly played stiff competition outside of Louisville, Zeigler’s numbers are telling.

Virginia vs. Tennessee Keys to the Game

I apologize for the less-than-uplifting review of Tennessee’s defensive menaces. Simply put, they’re physical, athletic, and can turn you over in the blink of an eye. Virginia, however, can test this defense with its myriad threats from behind the arc. Junior guard Isaac McKneely will likely face plenty of on-ball pressure from Tennessee’s physical perimeter defender in senior Jahmai Mashack, so this will be a litmus test for Sanchez in terms of his ability to scheme for McKneely within the various offensive sets.

This would be a perfect time for sophomore forward TJ Power to introduce himself under a national spotlight. Facing a matchup against the Vols’ weakest defender — Lanier — Power or potentially Rohde must take advantage of their opportunities. Ames and McKneely will have to scrap and claw to find a way around Zeigler and Mashack, so a three-point barrage from an unlikely suspect would force the Vols to reevaluate their defensive assignments.

Scoring in the paint will be really tough. Okpara is rating extremely well in terms of individual defensive efficiency, and Milicic’s experience in the Pack Line under Bennett means he’s no slouch on that side of the ball. Let’s hope that he doesn’t reveal all of Sanchez’s schematic secrets to Barnes; although, Virginia’s head coach also has the inside scouting report on Tennessee’s leading interior scorer. In short, the frontcourt will neither have time nor room to take high-percentage shots down low against All-SEC-caliber defenders. The ‘Hoos need Saunders, Cofie, and Buchanan to bring Tennessee’s big men out of the paint. Hitting a couple of threes would also help to spread the offense out.

Like Virginia teams of recent, Barnes’ Tennessee rosters have had a tendency to go cold offensively. The Pack Line could smother Milicic, Phillips, and Okpara as it did against Villanova’s Eric Dixon, but you have to hope that Ames and McKneely/Power/Rohde can hold their own against Zeigler and Lanier, respectively. Time will tell if Barnes has turned the corner and has a team that can avoid scoring droughts.

Tip is scheduled for 9:30pm ET Thursday night at Baha Mar Convention Center in Nassau and the game will be televised on CBS Sports Network. Virginia and Tennessee will serve as the nightcap following a 7pm matchup between No. 12 Baylor and No. 22 St. John’s.

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