What ESPN’s Matchup Predictor Indicates For All 12 Virginia Football Games

Using ESPN's Matchup Predictor to analyze the 2024 UVA football season.

Oct 21, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott watches his team play against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the first half at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports / Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports

With the season looming, ESPN has released its predictions using ESPN Analytics for all 12 UVA football games this season, giving Cavaliers fans another potential preview of how their season may pan out. The ESPN matchup predictor has Virginia favored to win just three games, resulting in a 3-9 record, which would be the third year in a row that UVA finishes with only three wins. 

With that said, here is the breakdown of every game based on ESPN Analytics: 

August 31st | Home Opener Against Richmond 

Virginia has a 91.9% chance of winning, the most out of any game this season. It is a game in which the Cavaliers should take care of business and create some momentum to start the season, unlike the punishing season-opening loss to Tennessee last year.

September 7th | Away at Wake Forest 

Virginia has a 42.1% chance of winning in its first road game of the season against the Demon Deacons, a game that will be crucial for the Cavaliers to win if they want to have a shot at a bowl game. 

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September 14th | Home Against Maryland 

Against an old ACC foe, the Cavaliers have a 39% chance to defeat Maryland for the first time since November 2011, the same month the Terrapins departed the ACC. Against Maryland on the road last year, Virginia stormed out to a 14-0 lead before the Terps rattled off 42 unanswered points.

September 21st | Away at Coastal Carolina 

Back into the projected win column, Virginia is given a 54.3% chance to win on the road at Coastal Carolina, the second-closest margin given by ESPN Analytics for the Cavaliers all season. 

October 5th | Home Against Boston College 

After a tightly contested matchup against the Chanticleers, Virginia hosts Boston College for their tightest game of the season, with the Cavaliers projected to have a 53.4% chance of victory. This is the last game of the season in which ESPN has Virginia winning. 

October 12th | Home Against Louisville 

Against the Cardinals, who played in the 2023 ACC Championship Game, the Cavaliers have a 25.8% chance to pull off the upset, an uphill battle for Virginia in front of their home fans. 

October 19th | Away at No. 14 Clemson 

A week after Louisville, the odds worsen for the Cavaliers, with Virginia given a 14.5% chance to leave Death Valley with a win. The last time the Cavaliers traveled to Memorial Stadium was in 2020, where Clemson defeated Virginia 41-23. 

October 26th | Home Against North Carolina 

Last season against the Tar Heels, Virginia stunned North Carolina to claim its first-ever victory against a top-ten opponent on the road. This time, the Cavaliers are set as home underdogs (33.8%), as they look to shock the Tar Heels in the South's Oldest Rivalry.

November 9th | Away Against Pittsburgh 

The underdog trend continues for the Cavaliers as they are given a 37.2% chance to travel into Pittsburgh and depart with a win. Virginia has not defeated Pittsburgh since 2019. 

November 16th | Away at No. 7 Notre Dame 

Aligning with the Cavaliers projected to have a 7.3% chance to upset the Fighting Irish, a win in South Bend would be nothing short of miraculous. According to ESPN, this game is the largest margin (in either direction) for any game for Virginia this season.

November 23rd | Home Against SMU 

In Virginia’s final home game of the season, the Cavaliers are given a 30.7% chance of victory against a newly welcomed conference opponent, the SMU Mustangs. 

November 30th | Away at Virginia Tech 

To close the season, ESPN gives the Cavaliers a 33.1% chance to defeat in-state rival Virginia Tech in the Commonwealth Clash, as Virginia is projected to fight an uphill battle to bring the Commonwealth Cup back to Charlottesville.

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