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The Plus/Minus: Virginia Crumbles Late Against Wake Forest

After opening a 15-point lead late in the 3rd quarter, Virginia was overwhelmed down the stretch, falling to Wake Forest 58-55

Val Prochaska

The Plus/Minus: Virginia Crumbles Late Against Wake Forest
The Plus/Minus: Virginia Crumbles Late Against Wake Forest /

Virginia's run at the 2024 ACC Women's Basketball Tournament lasted all of one game, as the Cavaliers suffered a painful 58-55 defeat to Wake Forest in the first round on Wednesday night in Greensboro. Val has the Plus/Minus to break down what he saw from the Cavaliers in their disappointing loss from courtside at Greensboro Coliseum. 

Minus

For the second third straight season, Virginia lost to Wake Forest on the opening day of the ACC Tournament. This is getting old. Matt and I specifically did not touch on this scheduling quirk in our women’s preview because we didn’t want bad karma to rain down on the women; yet rain it did. Despite beating the Deacons in both regular season meetings under Coach Agugua-Hamilton, the Cavaliers failed when it mattered most.

Plus

The quarter break in women’s basketball is the most jarring game stoppage I know. In some games, like this one, each quarter is its own discrete game. The first two quarters were a very back and forth affair. Virginia got out to a 7-3 lead before Wake closed out with a Kaia Harrison drive at the buzzer than knotted the score at 11. Jillian Brown went coast-coast off a rebound to similarly score with just fractions of seconds remaining. Wake went into the locker room just up two points, 25-23.

The third quarter was a different story. After scoring 23 points in the first half, Virginia scored 23 points in the 3rd quarter opening up a 15-point lead at 46-31. Virginia’s big three scorers went to work: Cam Taylor had three buckets, including a three. Paris Clark had three baskets, including one as the shot-clock buzzer was sounding. Kymora Johnson had three scores, including this three to give Virginia that aforementioned lead.

Furthermore, Virginia had done a better job defending the back cut which had victimized them in the first half.

Minus

The third quarter ended on an ominous note, though. After a pair of Elise Williams free throws, Virginia got the ball back with 49 seconds remaining. When a team has the ball with less than 60 seconds on the clock, it has the opportunity to get two scores for the other team’s one. But you have to move the ball quickly and get a good shot 10 seconds into the shot clock. There was no urgency on Virginia’s part; it took them 26 seconds to get a shot off. It missed. Wake could then come down for the last shot. Williams sank two more free throws with 4 seconds left.

This is not just a Virginia deficiency. I’m at the ACC tournament so I have seen the end of 12 quarters now, three of which offered a savvy team the opportunity to capitalize on the 2 for 1 opportunity. Not a single team has played like they understand this tactical nuance.

More:  Matt's take on this mess.

Minus

The Deacons flipped the script on the Cavaliers in the 4th quarter erupting for 23 points of their own. Wake, which did not shoot the three particularly well on the night (5 of 16,) came out and made three straight from long-distance. Throw in a three-point play of the and-1 variety and Wake had erased that 11-point 3rd quarter deficit. Other than two desperate too-little too-late three pointers by Taylor and Johnson in the last nine seconds, Virginia scored three points in the quarter. It was a total beatdown.

Plus

Taylor was Virginia's strongest player on the night.  She finished with a team-high 18 points on 8/14 shooting. As she so often does, Taylor scored Virginia's first points of the first, second and third quarters.

Minus

Coach Mox has had the luxury of greater depth this year, even with the continued absence of Mir McLean and the season-ending loss of Yonta Vaughn, and has been able to mix and match multiple lineups to meet various challenges. Edessa Noyan of late has been the beneficiary of this flexibility and she logged 23 minutes in this game, fourth on the team. Virginia was really struggling down the stretch as Elise Williams scored 15 points in the game’s last 11 minutes. The season was on the line, any hope of an NCAA tourney bid was gone, and I think it might have been better to have the players whose careers will be ending – London Clarkson and Sam Brunelle – in the game. Look, I love Noyan. She’s going to score a lot of points for Virginia in her career, but London and Sam earned the right to battle to the bitter end.

Next Up: Last year, with only seven healthy bodies, Coach Mox declined an invitation to play in the NIT. For a Power 5 program on the rise like Virginia, and NIT invitation is highly desirable. The coach gets a couple more weeks of practice while the players get a shot at redemption. NIT invitations go out on Sunday, March 17th.

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Published
Val Prochaska
VAL PROCHASKA

Val graduated from the University of Virginia in the last millennium, back when writing one's senior thesis by hand was still a thing. He is a lifelong fan of the ACC, having chosen the Tobacco Road conference ahead of the Big East. Again, when that was still a thing. Val has covered Virginia men's basketball for seven years, first with HoosPlace and then with StreakingTheLawn, before joining us here at Virginia Cavaliers on SI in August of 2023, continuing to cover UVA men's basketball and also writing about women's soccer and women's basketball.