Virginia Tech Basketball: ESPN's BPI Leans In Favor of NC State in Tonight's ACC Matchup

Both BPI and the oddsmakers like the Wolfpack to come on the road and get a win vs Virginia Tech
Jan 8, 2025; Stanford, California, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Rodney Brown Jr. (4) passes around Stanford Cardinal forward Maxime Raynaud (42) during the first half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images
Jan 8, 2025; Stanford, California, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Rodney Brown Jr. (4) passes around Stanford Cardinal forward Maxime Raynaud (42) during the first half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images / D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images
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After holding Cal off on Saturday, Virginia Tech is back at home and looking to get another ACC win, this time against NC State.

It is not going to be easy though. Both the oddsmakers and ESPN's BPI (Basketball Power Index) favor the Wolfpack tonight, with BPI giving NC State a 64% chance to win the game tonight.

But what is BPI? Here is how ESPN describes it:

"The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

Virginia Tech has claimed five of the last eight matchups but trails in the all-time series with NC State, 43-20. Four of the past five meetings have been decided by six points or less. VT prevailed 84-78 in the last season’s lone matchup in Raleigh. Behind Hunter Cattoor’s team-high 19 points, the Hokies shot 53.1% to earn the road victory. The Wolfpack won both meetings during the 2022- 23 season after splitting the season series in 2021-22, with each side winning on the road. Tech is 10-14 all-time against NC State in Blacksburg, but has lost the last two in Cassell. We have to go back to Jan. 11, 2020 (Mike Young’s first season), to find the Hokies’ last win over the Wolfpack in Blacksburg. Tech defeated NC State 72-58. Tech will be searching for back-to-back wins against the Wolfpack for the first time since 2019-20. Wednesday’s game features two of the previous three ACC tournament champions, with Tech winning in 2022 and NC State prevailing in 2024.

After making a run to the final four a season ago, the Wolfpack find themselves 9-7 and 2-3 in the ACC, but this team has faced a tough schedule, including out of conference matchups against Purdue and Kansas. Since ACC play began, NC State has wins over Florida State and Notre Dame, with losses to Virginia, North Carolina, and Wake Forest. They are led by the guard tandem of Marcus Hill (13.3 PPG) and Jayden Taylor (12.2 PPG). NC State and Virginia Tech ranks simlarly on offense, with the Wolfpack averaging 71.8 PPG (14th in the ACC) and the Hokies averaging 70.4 PPG (16th in the ACC).

Tech freshman guard Tyler Johnson notched the first double-double of his college career in Saturday’s 71-68 win at Cal. The Orlando, Fla., native recorded 11 points and a career-high 12 rebounds to help the Hokies hold on for their first road win of the season. He also logged a career-high 35 minutes, while guarding the ACC’s second-leading scorer Andrej Stojakovic. “He did an exceptional job,” Young said of Johnson’s defense on Stojakovic. “He let him get back to his left hand a couple times in the second half, but take not one thing away from Tyler and his work. He was on point, he did a great job on the glass and we needed it.”

VT ranked 10th in the ACC and 191st nationally in rebound margin last season. Most of the rebounding struggles were on the offensive side where the Hokies grabbed just 25% of their offensive rebound opportunities, which ranked 298th out of 362 programs per Ken Pomeroy. In 13 of its 21 games against ACC, foes last season, Tech lost the battle of the boards, including double-digit margins against Duke (-18), Pitt (-14), Boston College (-13) and North Carolina (-12). Fast forward to this season and the Hokies rank 107th in the country in that stat at 32.8%. They are averaging 10.5 offensive rebounds per game, which includes a season-high 18 against Michigan, which featured the tallest frontcourt the Hokies have faced so far this season.

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Jackson Caudell
JACKSON CAUDELL

Jackson Caudell has been covering Georgia Tech Athletics For On SI since March 2022 and the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since October 2023. Jackson is also the co-host of the Bleav in Georgia Tech podcast and he loves to bring thoughtful analysis and comprehensive coverage to everything that he does. Find him on X @jacksoncaudell