Dukes Mayo Bowl Predictions: SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech To Defeat Minnesota
While all eyes might be on the College Football Playoff games today, there are still more bowl games left to be played afterward and one of them is the Dukes Mayo Bowl between Virginia Tech and Minnesota. The Hokies and the Golden Gophers are going to face each other in the Dukes Mayo Bowl and Minnesota is a comfortable favorite in the game. Currently, they are 8.5-point favorites in the game on Friday and they have been getting predictions to defeat Virginia Tech, except from ESPN's FPI and Bill Connelly's SP+. SP+ is predicting that Virginia Tech will win the game by a score of 25-22 and gives the Hokies a 57% chance to win the game.
🎄🤶 SP+ BOWL (AND ARMY-NAVY) PICKS 🍾❄️
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 9, 2024
* ND by 4.8, PSU by 5.0, Ohio State by 5.6, Texas by 13.2
* Always ignore the Army-Navy point total projections
* [checks portal again] yeah ... we'll see about some of thesehttps://t.co/X4ZrsS9rXs pic.twitter.com/8uC6YfS4SG
What exactly is SP+? Here is how Connelly himself describes it:
"As always, these are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history. How good have you been recently? Whom do you have coming back? How good are the players replacing those you don't have coming back? That's loosely what we ask when we're setting expectations for a team; it's also what these projections attempt to do objectively.
As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date."
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
Bleacher Report's David Kenyon is picking Minnesota as well. Kenyon picked every bowl game in a recent article and is picking Minnesota to win 24-20.
ESPN's Adam Rittenberg gave his thoughts on the game and he is favoring the Golden Gophers:
"P.J. Fleck was born to play and coach football, brainstorm mottos and eventually douse himself in mayonnaise after winning a bowl game. Can't you see it now? Fleck's team wasn't far away from a much better season and boasts a solid formula of defense, Darius Taylor's running and quarterback Max Brosmer's efficient passing. Virginia Tech had far greater expectations than 6-6 this season, and could be facing some damaging personnel departures before January. The Hokies are very talented with running back Bhayshul Tuten, defensive end Antwaun Powell-Ryland and others, but there has been something missing all season. But Minnesota will win, setting up an epic mayo dump for Fleck."
The game will kickoff on January 3rd at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. This will mark Virginia Tech’s third time playing in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The Hokies hold a 1-1 record in the bowl game that was formerly known as the Belk Bowl. Most recently, Virginia Tech lost to Kentucky 37-30 in 2019. The Hokies’ only win in this bowl game was in 2016 when the No. 18 Hokies took down Arkansas 35-24.
The Hokies have now made consecutive bowl games for the first time since the 2019 and 2018 seasons. As it stands, Brent Pry is undefeated in bowl games with a 41-20 win against No. 23 Tulane in the Military Bowl last year.
On the other side, this is Minnesota’s fourth consecutive bowl game. The Gophers are 7-0 in their last seven bowl games and P.J. Fleck’s bowl game record as a head coach is 5-0.
This year, Minnesota holds a better record than Virginia Tech. The Gophers went 7-5 this year with a 5-4 record against the Big Ten. Fleck’s squad picked up some signature wins against No. 11 USC, No. 24 Illinois, and Wisconsin.
Virginia Tech just barely clinched bowl eligibility as the Hokies had four opportunities to get their sixth win on the season down the stretch. The Hokies played Syracuse, No. 23 Clemson, Duke, and Virginia. Syracuse and Duke narrowly beat the Hokies, and Clemson had their way, but the Hokies’ dominance in their in-state rivalry led them to another bowl game.
Related Links:
Virginia Tech Football: West Virginia OL Kyle Altuner Transfers to Virginia Tech
Duke’s Mayo Bowl Tickets: Cheapest and most expensive tickets to attend
Jackson Caudell has been covering Georgia Tech Athletics For On SI since March 2022 and the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since October 2023. Jackson is also the co-host of the Bleav in Georgia Tech podcast and he loves to bring thoughtful analysis and comprehensive coverage to everything that he does. Find him on X @jacksoncaudell