ESPN's FPI Predicts Every Game on Virginia Tech's 2024 Schedule
The 2024 college football season is getting closer and Virginia Tech is hoping they can match the hype surrounding this team. The Hokies are seen by many as a dark horse for the ACC title game with the amont of returning production they have and the favorable schedule. Will that mean a big season?
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
ESPN's FPI predicted every game on Virginia Tech's schedule and here were the results.
Game 1 At Vanderbilt: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech a 58% chance to win (1-0 Record, 0-0 ACC)
I think the odds should be higher for this game, as Virginia Tech is much more talented across the board than Vanderbilt and the Commodores do not have a homefield advantage. I like Virginia Tech to win this game and by a lot.
Game 2 vs Marshall: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech a 75% chance to win (2-0, 0-0)
Marshall is not a bad Sun Belt program, but I don't think they are going to be able to hang with this Virginia Tech team, especially in Blacksburg.
Game 3 At Old Dominion: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech a 75% chance to win (3-0, 0-0)
Old Dominion has given Virginia Tech plenty of trouble in the past, but this year is not going to be one of those years. The Hokies will go on the road and take care of business and not stumble.
Game 4 vs Rutgers: ESPN's FPI Gives Rutgers a 51% chance to win (3-1, 0-0)
While I do think this is going to be a close game and Virginia Tech's first true test of the season, I think the homefield advantage is going to put them over the top. Like Virginia Tech though, Rutgers returns plenty of production and is going to be very tough on defense. Expect a close game, but I disagree with the result from FPI here.
Game 5 at Miami: ESPN's FPI Give Miami a 73% chance to win (3-2, 0-1)
This is one of the biggest games on the schedule for Virginia Tech and it would be disappointing to lose a second straight before the month of September even hits. The Hurricanes are expected to be among the contenders in the ACC and have a loaded roster at their disposal. This Friday night test will be one of the toughest of the year for the Hokies.
Game 6 at Stanford: ESPN's FPI Gives Stanford a 56% chance to win this game (3-3, 0-2)
Yes, FPI is actually predicting Stanford to beat Virginia Tech. While going on the road to the west coast is tough after a road trip to Miami, Stanford is projected to be one of the worst teams in the ACC. I like Virginia Tech quite a lot here in this match. A 3-3 start for the Hokies after all of the hype of the offseason would be disappointing to say the least.
Game 7 vs Boston College: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 63% chance to win (4-3, 1-2)
After a bye week, FPI has Virginia Tech back in the win column against Boston College and first year head coach Bill O'Brien. The Eagles have an intriguing roster, but it might be a rocky first season for O'Brien.
Game 8 vs Georgia Tech: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 60% chance to win (5-3, 2-2)
This could end up being one of the tougher games on Virginia Tech's schedule. The Yellow Jackets have one of the ACC's best offenses and their defense could be much improved, but with the game in Blacksburg, the Hokies get the advantage from FPI.
Game 9 at Syracuse: ESPN"s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 56% chance to win (6-3, 3-2)
Another game that FPI is deeming a tossup, but they give the Hokies the edge on the road. Syracuse has a new head coach and former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord might ignite the passing game. This could be a sneaky good team this year and Virginia Tech will need to earn their win.
Game 10 vs Clemson: ESPN's FPI gives Clemson a 69% chance to win (6-4, 3-3)
This is one of the other games that Virginia Tech has circled on their calendar, but FPI has Clemson as a clear favorite in this game. The Tigers still have one of the most talented rosters in the league, but have some questions at certain positions. This would be a huge victory for the Virginia Tech program if they could upset the Tigers.
Game 11 at Duke: ESPN's FPI gives Duke a 52% chance to win (6-5, 3-4)
This is another game that I disagree with a lot, similar to Stanford. Duke is losing a lot from the Mike Elko era and I don't know that Manny Diaz has enough on this team to make a run at a bowl game this year. I think Duke could be one of the worst teams in the ACC and I think Virginia Tech wins this game on the road.
Game 12 vs Virginia: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech a 67% chance to win (7-5, 4-4)
Virginia Tech continues their dominance against their in-state rival. The Hokies have dominated this series and I see that continuing in 2024.
Obviously this would be a disappointing season if Virginia Tech ended up going 7-5 with losses to Stanford and Duke, but I do not think that is going to happen. This is an experienced team that is going to have a powerful running attack and a very good defense. I think ESPN's FPI gets a lot wrong about this season for Virginia Tech.
JACKSON CAUDELL
Jackson Caudell has been covering Georgia Tech Athletics For On SI since March 2022 and the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since October 2023. Jackson is also the co-host of the Bleav in Georgia Tech podcast and he loves to bring thoughtful analysis and comprehensive coverage to everything that he does. Find him on X @jacksoncaudell