SP+ Gives Virginia Tech the 7th Best Odds to Win the ACC in 2024
The calendar has turned to July and football season is getting closer. The 2024 season is one that has Virginia Tech fans excited, as they are returning most of their production from last season and are one of the most experienced teams in the nation. Another leap from quarterback Kyron Drones and improvement in other areas could result in their first ACC Championship appearance since 2016.
The schedule is also very favorable and one of the reasons analysts covering the sport pick Virginia Tech as a dark horse in the ACC. According to Bill Connelly's SP+ though, the Hokies only have the 7th best odds to win the conference. In his ACC preview that was released today, Connelly listed every ACC team's odds to win the conference and odds to win six or more games and he gave Virginia Tech a 5.8% chance to win the ACC and a whopping 97.3% chance to win six or more games. Virginia Tech is behind Florida State, Clemson, Miami, SMU, Louisville, and NC State.
Here is what Connelly had to say about the Hokies ahead of the 2024 season:
2024 projection: 32nd in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.1 in ACC)
"NC State might have won the official Late-Year Darling award, but Brent Pry's Hokies came close, surging from 76th in SP+ following a 2-4 start to finish with five wins in seven games and a No. 46 final ranking. And unlike the Pack, they return their starting quarterback (Kyron Drones) and, for that matter, just about everyone else. They rank fourth nationally in returning production, first on offense, and after six years outside the SP+ top 30, they'll have a chance to end that streak.
Tech's 2-4 start was beset by a directionless offense that averaged just 5.0 yards per play. But once Drones and RB Bhayshul Tuten, both transfers, got their sea legs, the Hokies were transformed. They averaged 34.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play over the final seven games, and Drones heads into 2024 with Tuten, his entire offensive line and the receiving corps he was supposed to have all along. Last year's top receivers, Da'Quan Felton and Jaylin Lane, return, as do 2023 injury victims Ali Jennings III (a former ODU star) and tight end Nick Gallo.
The Hokies had one of the best pass defenses in the country last season, ranking fourth in sacks per dropback, 15th in passing success rate allowed and 23rd in QBR allowed. Ace pass rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland (15 TFLs, 9.5 sacks) is back, and Pry added both one of the better pass-rushing defensive tackles in the country in 290-pound Duke transfer Aeneas Peebles (five sacks) and a speedy blitzer in Middle Tennessee's Sam Brumfield (22.9% pressure rate). Add in experienced corners Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane and a dynamic nickel in Keonta Jenkins (12 TFLs), and there's no reason to think the pass defense will be any less effective. If there was a problem, it came in run defense, where Tech allowed quite a few gashes. Three of last year's top four tackles are gone, and while Peebles and two other tackle transfers could improve things in this regard, it's not a guarantee.
My favorite player: QB Kyron Drones. Drones overtook incumbent Grant Wells as starter early in the season, but he managed just a 44.0 Total QBR in the first four games of 2023, completing 55% of his passes with a 23% sack rate and just one TD pass.
The rest of the season: 60% completion rate, a 6% sack rate, 16 TDs, only two interceptions, 82.7 non-sack rushing yards per game and a 76.9 Total QBR. Coordinator Tyler Bowen figured him out, and he figured out ACC defenses. With Tuten enjoying a similar surge (3.9 yards per carry through seven games, 6.2 from there), Tech had one of the best backfields in the Eastern time zone by the end of the season."
So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:
"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.
A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."
I would probably give Virginia Tech a higher chance than that, but I don't think the odds are way off. This season is shaping up nicely for Brent Pry and Virginia Tech, but they have to take full advantage of it.
JACKSON CAUDELL