SP+ Predicts Final Score For Virginia Tech vs Virginia Rivalry Matchup
The winner of this year's Virginia Tech vs Virginia matchup is going to head to a bowl game, while the loser is going to stay home for the postseason and get an early head start on the 2025 season. For a matchup of 5-6 teams who have been disappointing in their own way (Virginia Tech much more so), there is going to be a lot on the line in Blacksburg this Saturday night.
When the lines for the game were first released, the Hokies opened as favorites in the betting market vs the Cavaliers, but what does SP+ think about the game on Saturday? SP+ likes the Hokies even more than the betting markets do and project Virginia Tech to win this game by a score of 34-19 and it gives them an 84% chance to win.
WEEK 14 SP+ PICKS
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 24, 2024
Texas 29, A&M 23
UGA 41, Ga Tech 15
Clemson 27, SC 26
Ohio St 36, Mich 10
Miami 41, 'Cuse 23
ND 32, USC 21
Bama 34, Auburn 18
Buffs 38, Pokes 23
Tulane 33, Memphis 27
Lots of BIG disagreements with the spread, which is ... odd.https://t.co/0IuE15fpus pic.twitter.com/XinpDuCrEL
What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly (creator of SP+) describes it:
"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
At the start of the year, Virginia Tech was being talked about as one of the biggest surprise teams not just in the ACC, but in the country. This team's biggest goals have gone away, but they still have an opportunity to reach a bowl game for the second straight season. That should still be a big deal to the program, but on the other side, the Cavaliers are trying to make a bowl game for the first time under Tony Elliott. They are going to be fired up about playing in this game and having a chance to make a bowl game, so Virginia Tech can't take it for granted, no matter their past success vs Virginia.
Before you could even blink on Saturday night, Virginia Tech was trailing Duke 14-0 thanks to two long touchdown plays and the Blue Devils have not been a very explosive offense this season. Virginia has found a way to put points on teams like Clemson and Louisville this season and has improved since last year. The Hokies' pass rush was non-existent on Saturday vs Duke, finishing with no sacks and being unable to disrupt Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy. They will have to be able to play better on Saturday if they want to avoid the upset.
This of course is a rivalry that Virginia Tech has dominated. Since 2000, Virginia only has two wins in the series (2003 and 2019) and the Hokies dominated in last year's game 55-17. Virginia Tech leads the all-time series 61-38. Is that going to continue on Saturday?
Additional Links:
Virginia Tech Football Releases Depth Chart Ahead of Matchup Against Virginia
Virginia Tech Football: PFF Grades and Snap Counts For Every Player in Saturday’s Loss to Duke
Virginia Tech Football: Updated Bowl Projections For The Hokies Heading Into Final Game
Jackson Caudell has been covering Georgia Tech Athletics For On SI since March 2022 and the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since October 2023. Jackson is also the co-host of the Bleav in Georgia Tech podcast and he loves to bring thoughtful analysis and comprehensive coverage to everything that he does. Find him on X @jacksoncaudell