Updated Game-by-Game ESPN FPI Win Projections For Virginia Tech After Their Loss Against Vanderbilt
The college football season is now heading into week two, and Virginia Tech has one more loss than they were hoping to enter week two with. Virginia Tech needs to get back on track in week two to keep their ACC title hopes alive.
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
ESPN's FPI predicted every remaining game on Virginia Tech's schedule and here were the results.
Game 2 vs Marshall: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 60.0% chance to win (1-1, 0-0)
After week one, this game dropped 15 percentage points in favor of Virginia Tech. The Hokies were fairly big favorites against the Commodores and now could be on upset alert against Marshall. Lane Stadium should be able to get to Marshall though, I still believe in Virginia Tech winning.
Game 3 at Old Dominion: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 65.8% chance to win (2-1, 0-0)
Old Dominion played South Carolina very close in week one and faces another test against East Carolina next week. Virginia Tech should win this game to get back on track and needs to grab this crucial game on the road.
Game 4 vs Rutgers: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 52.8% chance to win (3-1, 0-0)
During preseason, Rutgers was the favorite for this game according to ESPN’s FPI, but now it’s been closely flipped to Virginia Tech. Athan Kaliakmanis and Kyle Monangai lead the Scarlet Knights and will battle against the Hokies.
Game 5 at Miami: ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 86.1% chance to win (3-2, 0-1)
Miami seems to be the best team in the ACC, and this game will be scary for Virginia Tech. If this game gets out of hand, the Cam Ward-led Hurricanes could make this game get very ugly.
Game 6 at Stanford: ESPN’s FPI gives Stanford a 55.4% chance to win (3-3, 0-2)
This is one of the games that I don’t understand FPI’s reasoning other than the trip from Miami, back to Blacksburg, and out to Stanford. I think the Hokies could overcome that, as they are hopefully the more talented team.
Game 7 vs Boston College: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 38.0% chance to win (4-3, 1-2)
Again, to keep this season respectable, Virginia Tech should win big against Boston College. I don’t have full faith in Bill O’Brien’s first year team and Virginia Tech should take advantage.
Game 8 vs Georgia Tech: ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 62.9% chance to win (4-4, 1-3)
Georgia Tech certainly looks better than last year after their solid win against Florida State. Virginia Tech’s advantage in this game is that it’s in Blacksburg, and Georgia Tech could be looking ahead to their rough ending stretch in the schedule.
Game 9 at Syracuse: ESPN’s FPI gives Syracuse a 53.7% chance to win (4-5, 1-4)
Syracuse is another ACC team that hasn’t fully shown what they look like as a team, a close but uninteresting game against Ohio and an offense that could cause problems.
Game 10 vs Clemson: ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 66.8% chance to win (4-6, 1-5)
Clemson’s defense looks extremely solid, and Virginia Tech will invite Cade Klubnik into Blacksburg. This is one of Virginia Tech’s hardest opponents and could be another loss.
Game 11 at Duke: ESPN’s FPI gives Duke a 52.0% chance to win (4-7, 1-6)
Duke is one of the lower tier teams in the ACC, and this should be a game where the Hokies find some success. The Blue Devils have talent and they might still be patching things together this late in the season.
Game 12 vs Virginia: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 65.4% chance to win (5-7, 2-6)
This is another game on the schedule where the Hokies should win by a lot. The Hokies have dominated their rival and there’s no reason they shouldn’t in 2024.
A 5-7 record would be really disappointing for the Hokies, especially since the schedule sets them up for a decent run at the conference. Virginia Tech should be looking to finish off their conference schedule with at least six wins to give themselves a shot at the ACC title game in 2024.
RJ SCHAFER
RJ Schafer joined the On SI team in 2024, contributing to the coverage of Major League Baseball, Collegiate Basketball, and Collegiate Football at https://www.si.com/college/virginiatech/. Prior to this, RJ built a strong portfolio covering Georgia Tech and the Tigers for the Bleav Network. With a solid background in sports journalism, RJ has conducted interviews with both collegiate and professional athletes, enhancing the depth and authenticity of his reporting. RJ's extensive experience in the sports industry has equipped him with a keen understanding of the dynamics and intricacies of both collegiate and professional sports. His work is focused on providing insightful analysis and comprehensive coverage, making him a trusted voice in the sports community.