Updated Virginia Tech Game-By-Game Projections From ESPN's FPI After Week Five
Virginia Tech surprised some college football fans over the past week, staying within one score of Miami, and almost winning on a last-second Hail Mary which would later get overturned.
The season is still in-balance though, as the Hokies have only one conference loss and remain ahead of teams like Florida State and Georgia Tech in the ACC Standings.
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
So did the Hokies' close loss to Miami change how ESPN's FPI saw the rest of the season?
Game 6 at Stanford: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 59.0% chance to win (3-3, 1-1)
FPI flipped this game from a toss-up to a slightly favorable win for Virginia Tech, moving from a 51.8% chance for the Hokies to a 59.0%. Stanford lost by 26 last week to Clemson, and Virginia Tech almost escaped South Beach with a win against Miami last week.
Game 7 vs Boston College: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 59.6% chance to win (4-3, 2-1)
This game was another one that felt like an obvious flip, going from an Eagles win to a Hokies Win. Boston College has looked solid in some games, but they just narrowly defeated Western Kentucky last week, and Virginia Tech is much better than their record shows.
Game 8 vs Georgia Tech: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 60.9% chance to win (5-3, 3-1)
The battle over being the real 'Tech' school will certainly be an exciting one this year. Both of these teams have dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks and have already lost two games in the season, there's a large hill to climb for both of teams, and this game could have some postseason implications for both teams.
Game 9 at Syracuse: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 61.9% chance to win (6-3, 4-1)
The FPI odds have moved back and forth regarding this game, mostly due to Syracuse’s hot start and Virginia Tech’s comeback. This game would still be exciting though, as Kyron Drones and Kyle McCord are two of the most fun quarterbacks to watch in the conference.
Game 10 vs Clemson: ESPN's FPI Gives Clemson a 68.3% chance to win (6-4, 4-2)
This game might be rough for the Hokies, but they have shown that they can hang with the big teams in the ACC, and if they can take down Clemson they have a shot at the ACC Championship Game.
Game 11 at Duke: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 56.8% chance to win (7-4, 5-2)
Virginia Tech and Duke have had ver different seasons, but ESPN’s FPI still favors the Hokies to take down the Blue Devils that are currently 5-0.
Game 12 vs Virginia: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 71.5% chance to win (8-4, 6-2)
Virginia Tech has dominated Virginia in recent history, and ESPN FPI predicts that trend will continue at the end of the Hokies' season this year.
RJ Schafer joined the On SI team in 2024, contributing to the coverage of Major League Baseball, Collegiate Basketball, and Collegiate Football at https://www.si.com/college/virginiatech/. Prior to this, RJ built a strong portfolio covering Georgia Tech and the Tigers for the Bleav Network. With a solid background in sports journalism, RJ has conducted interviews with both collegiate and professional athletes, enhancing the depth and authenticity of his reporting. RJ's extensive experience in the sports industry has equipped him with a keen understanding of the dynamics and intricacies of both collegiate and professional sports. His work is focused on providing insightful analysis and comprehensive coverage, making him a trusted voice in the sports community.