Virginia Tech Football: ESPN's FPI Predicts Every Game Left on the Hokies' Schedule

What will Virginia Tech's record be in 2024?

Sep 21, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) celebrates after getting a first down during the fourth quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech lost their second non-conference game of the season last week, dropping the game 26-23 after a disappointing first half. The lack of a passing game, and the second straight week of slow starts plagued the Hokies from the beginning.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

So did the Hokies' loss to Rutgers change how ESPN's FPI saw the rest of the season?

Game 5 at Miami: ESPN's FPI Gives Miami a 90.2% chance to win (2-3, 0-1)

This game is definitely Virginia Tech's hardest game on the schedule, and the Hokies would have to claw to have a chance against the 'Canes, Miami is certainly the better team in this matchup.

Game 6 at Stanford: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 51.8% chance to win (3-3, 1-1)

FPI looks at this game as a toss-up, which is especially accurate when you consider that the Cardinal just took down Syracuse in their first-ever ACC conference game. Like FPI says, this game could really go either way for the Hokies, especially with the Hokies having to fly all the way to California for a conference game in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Game 7 vs Boston College: ESPN's FPI Gives Boston College a 54.2% chance to win (3-4, 1-2)

Boston College is another team on Virginia Tech's schedule that has looked harder and harder to beat each week. The Eagles took down Florida State, Michigan State, and held their own with Missouri. This would definitely be an exciting game.

Game 8 vs Georgia Tech: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 51.7% chance to win (4-4, 2-2)

The battle over being the real 'Tech' school will certainly be an exciting one this year. Both of these teams have dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks and have already lost two games in the season, there's a large hill to climb for both of teams, and this game could have some postseason implications for both teams.

Game 9 at Syracuse: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 55.4% chance to win (5-4, 3-2)

Earlier in the year, this game would seem like too tall of a task for Virginia Tech to be considered the favorite, but now that Stanford took down Kyle McCord and the Orange, this game looks much more manageable.

Game 10 vs Clemson: ESPN's FPI Gives Clemson a 70.1% chance to win (5-5, 3-3)

This game just seems like it will be too much for Virginia Tech, Clemson dominated last week against ACC foe and rival NC State, and Virginia Tech will have to start very fast to match this Tigers' offense.

Game 11 at Duke: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 53.5% chance to win (6-5, 4-3)

Virginia Tech makes a bowl game! With this win by FPI, that means they project the Hokies heading to a bowl game, which was the Hokies' preseason expectations--and then some. Duke has had some growing pains in their offense, but 4-0 is 4-0.

Game 12 vs Virginia: ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech a 65.0% chance to win (7-5, 5-3)

Virginia Tech has dominated Virginia in recent history, and ESPN FPI predicts that trend will continue at the end of the Hokies' season this year.