Virginia Tech Football: Expert Prediction Sees Super Close Game Between Hokies and Blue Devils
After having a week off, Virginia Tech (5-5, 3-3) is back in action on Saturday. The Hokies are going to be going on the road to face Duke (7-3, 3-3) and while the Blue Devils might hold the advantage in terms of record, the Hokies are favored by 2.5 at Fanduel Sportsbook. It is projected to be a close game by not only the sportsbooks, but by ESPN's Bill Connelly and his SP+ system. Connelly released the SP+ projections for this week and SP+ has an a very interesting score projection for Saturday night's game.
WEEK 13 SP+ PICKS
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 17, 2024
Ohio St 31, Indiana 19
ND 32, Army 18
BYU 27, Ariz St 25
CU 30, KU 29
Ole Miss 35, Florida 19
Penn St 30, Minn 15
Texas 36, UK 13
Huskers 21, Badgers 20
A&M 26, Auburn 22
Cal 39, Stanford 17
USC 34, UCLA 20
Jax St 30, SHSU 24
Full list: https://t.co/VZ0dtDnMDF pic.twitter.com/6V3Ed1nMtQ
The projected score is 25-25 and it gives the Hokies a 51% chance to win the game. Obviously the score is not going to end up 25-25, but it shows you how close this game is projected to be.
What is SP+? Here is how Connelly describes it:
"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
Duke and Virginia Tech played each other each year when they ACC had divisions, but they did not face each other last season. The last meeting between these two teams was in 2022, where the Blue Devils won 24-7. Virginia Tech leads the all-time series between the two programs 19-11 and have won 5 out of the last 7 against Duke.
Duke has been one of the best stories in the ACC this season. There were not high expectations for Manny Diaz in his first season in Durham, but he has Duke at 7-3, he led Duke to its first-ever win over Florida State, and has beaten both North Carolina and NC State. He has a chance to get Duke a 10-win season if they defeat Virginia Tech this Saturday and then Wake Forest to end the season and then win their bowl game.
Additional Links
Virginia Tech Football: Bhayshul Tuten Accepts Reese's Senior Bowl Invite
College Football Bowl Projections: Where is Virginia Tech Projected to Play After Week Twelve?
Virginia Tech Football: SP+ Rankings Shake Up After Hokies’ Bye Week
Jackson Caudell has been covering Georgia Tech Athletics For On SI since March 2022 and the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since October 2023. Jackson is also the co-host of the Bleav in Georgia Tech podcast and he loves to bring thoughtful analysis and comprehensive coverage to everything that he does. Find him on X @jacksoncaudell