Virginia Tech vs Duke: Game Preview, Matchup Breakdown, and Final Score Prediction
It’s no secret that Virginia Tech is not at the spot they wanted to be before the season started. The Hokies have just two weeks left in the year, and they still are not bowl eligible. It’s not like the team is bad by any metric either, Bhayshul Tuten is one of the best backs in the country, and Antwaun Powell-Ryland is arguably the best pass rusher in college football, but still, the Hokies’ record doesn’t reflect that.
All five of Virginia Tech’s losses were by ten points or less, four of the losses being one score games. The Hokies never really get blown out, but in close games Virginia Tech has struggled. As head coach, Brent Pry is now 1-12 in one-score games, with no one-score wins this year.
The Hokies need to find their footing this week and the matchup is in their favor.
The Duke Blue Devils approach this matchup with an entirely different backstory. Before the season, PFF projected Duke to have 6.2 wins on the season, and the Blue Devils’ consensus win total was 5.5.
It’s fair to say that Duke has fairly outperformed both of those numbers. The Blue Devils stand at seven wins, and the only teams in their way to nine wins are Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to say Duke could end with the third best record in the ACC, possibly tied with Clemson.
Many analysts believed that Manny Diaz was a risky hire for the Blue Devils, I wrote a piece in the preseason ranking ACC head coaches, and I placed Diaz as the twelfth best coach in the conference. Sometimes when things don’t always look right on the stat sheet, they work on the field, and that has been Diaz’s recipe for success.
So how do these teams actually match up on the turf this year?
Virginia Tech Offense vs Duke Defense
Bhayshul Tuten is by far the most important player on offense for the Hokies this week against Duke.
Tuten is one of the best backs in the country, there’s no doubt about that, but the Hokies’ offensive line has came through in a huge way for Tuten this year.
Left tackle Xavier Chaplin has absolutely been shot out of a cannon, becoming one of the best tackles in college football, earning some of the highest PFF grades on the team weekly.
Whether it’s Bob Schick or Layth Ghannam at left guard, Tuten has been able to rush on the left side of the line with ease this year.
Tuten could have a large amount of opportunities in this game, if he is 100% healthy. He carried the ball just four times against Clemson, and his last significant workload before that game was seventeen carries against Georgia Tech, a game that only the ‘Sickos Committee’ could love.
His status is still in question for tonight’s bout against the Blue Devils, but his role in this offense is so crucial, especially against a defense like Duke’s.
As everybody would expect, Manny Diaz’s defense gets plenty of pressure with their elite defensive, and the passing defense is by fair the strength of this defense.
Opponents complete just 54.9% of their passes against the Duke secondary, averaging just 6.0 yards per pass, it’s no question that the Blue Devils will get attacked on the ground.
Duke has had some issues this year, although limited, with tackling. Teams run the ball an average of 39 times per game, with an average of 162.6 rushing yards per game.
Virginia Tech Defense vs Duke Offense
If somebody stopped watching college football for a year and picked it back up on this matchup between Virginia Tech and Duke, they would be absolutely shocked by the rebirth of the Duke offense.
Since Manny Diaz’s hire as head coach, the Blue Devils have essentially switched to an ‘Air Raid’ offense. The team thrives off of a multitude of options and receiver and quick throws from Texas transfer Malik Murphy who has shown extreme flashes of greatness this year.
Whether it’s Eli Pancol, Jordan Moore, Que’Sean Brown, or Sahmir Hagans, Murphy has so many options to throw the ball to.
Virginia Tech’s secondary had to be ultra-disciplined in this game, and throughout the season that has been an inconsistent battle. In week one against Vanderbilt, cornerback Mansoor Delane got a couple penalty calls and was targeted for some big gains multiple times. In no way is that meant to single out Delane, every player has a bad game, but it seems that Virginia Tech’s secondary is not in sync with each other. Some days the safety play is amazing, but the cornerback play is lackluster, and vice versa.
The true X-Factor on defense though has to be the defensive pressure. If Aeneas Peebles can have a strong revenge game against his former team, and if Powell-Ryland can continue to be the game breaker he has this season, Virginia Tech could have a very simple plan defensively.
Final Prediction
I think Virginia Tech becomes bowl eligible this week. Will it be pretty? No. I don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game from either side, and if Virginia Tech’s questionable players don’t play, the Hokies could be clawing for bowl eligibility next week.
For now, I see this as a Hokie win.
Final Score: Virginia Tech 23, Duke 17
Additional Links:
Virginia Tech vs Duke: Final Score Predictions For Saturday's Game
Virginia Tech Football: Hokies Reveal Uniform Combination For Matchup With Duke
Virginia Tech Football: Hokies DC Mentioned as Potential Candidate for NFL Job
RJ Schafer joined the On SI team in 2024, contributing to the coverage of Major League Baseball, Collegiate Basketball, and Collegiate Football at https://www.si.com/college/virginiatech/. Prior to this, RJ built a strong portfolio covering Georgia Tech and the Tigers for the Bleav Network. With a solid background in sports journalism, RJ has conducted interviews with both collegiate and professional athletes, enhancing the depth and authenticity of his reporting. RJ's extensive experience in the sports industry has equipped him with a keen understanding of the dynamics and intricacies of both collegiate and professional sports. His work is focused on providing insightful analysis and comprehensive coverage, making him a trusted voice in the sports community.