What ESPN’s FPI Says About Virginia Tech's Matchup With Rutgers

Virginia Tech is seeking their first out-of-conference Power Five win since 2017.

Aug 31, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies running back P.J. Prioleau (20) runs the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

It seemed like a definite fact that Virginia Tech would end their seven-year drought of out-of-conference wins against Power Five teams in week one, as the Hokies were set to play Vanderbilt in a game that I called, "a fairly easy win," and a game where I said that "Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten [will] have their way." That did not happen, but the Hokies have another chance on Saturday.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Here's what ESPN's FPI has to say about Virginia Tech's week four home matchup against Rutgers at Lane Stadium.

Week 4 Vs Rutgers: ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech a 58.3% chance to win

This FPI result is eerily similar to the result that the FPI model gave for the Vanderbilt game in week one. In that game, Virginia Tech was given a 57.7% chance to win, which is not too much different than this result. That is worrisome, as it seemed like the Hokies would have a sure win against the Commodores, but fell short, and hopefully, a similar result doesn't happen.

I do look at this game much differently than I looked at the Vanderbilt. Despite the similarity in FPI, Virginia Tech is not close to being as favored as they were in their first matchup. Virginia Tech was a 13.5-point favorite against Vanderbilt at DraftKings Sportsbook, but is only a 3.5-point favorite against Rutgers at DraftKings Sportsbook.

I think a 58% chance is fair for Virginia Tech, but in all honesty, I'd lean closer to this game being a toss-up. Kyle Monangai will have the Hokies' hands full, and Brent Pry is definitely not taking this game lightly. The key to winning for the Virginia Tech team is to find a way to limit Kyle Monangai, as he hasn't been stopped at all this season, averaging over eight yards per carry.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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