Why Virginia Tech’s schedule sets them up for a run at the ACC title game

Virginia Tech's last appearance in the ACC Championship Game was in 2016.

Dec 27, 2023; Annapolis, MD, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies tight end Harrison Saint Germain (87) celebrates after scoring a first half touchdown against the Tulane Green Wave at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Coach Brent Pry has performed a complete 360 on the Virginia Tech football program. After finishing with a 3-8 record in the 2022 season, the Hokies stormed back into 2023 with a 7-6 record. Virginia Tech capped off the season with a commanding 41-20 Military Bowl win against Tulane. With that bowl win being the first of its kind since the Hokies' 2016 Belk Bowl win, excitement is clearly rising for the Virginia Tech Program.

Pry has also done an amazing job at returning player production, in fact, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly's returning production calculations, the Hokies return 84% of all of their production, and a staggering 91% of their offensive production back.

It also helps when you return your young star quarterback. Kyron Dones, a transfer from Baylor, was a huge reason for Virginia Tech's success last season. Drones ended the season with a whopping 2,903 yards in production, 2,085 yards in the air, and 818 yards on the ground.

With all of that being said, Virginia Tech also holds one of the easiest schedules in the ACC, which is a cause for excitement among Virginia Tech fans. According to ESPN's Football Power Index Strength of Schedule system, Virginia Tech ranks as the 79th hardest schedule in the nation. Notably, this number puts VT as the 2nd easiest schedule in the ACC, and in the Power 4 Conferences, only trailing Syracuse who is currently listed at 82nd in the country.

This leaves the door wide open for VT to make a run at the ACC title game. Despite not being a preseason favorite to win the conference, the opportunity is certainly there.

Tech opens their season at Vanderbilt, which ironically may be one of the harder games on the schedule. Not necessarily due to how "good" Vanderbilt will be, simply off the fact that it is a road game at an SEC school for your very first game into the schedule. However, this forecasts as an easier game for Tech to begin the year.

With VT playing all of their out of conference games to begin the season, they are slated for their two easiest games after Vanderbilt.

Virginia Tech opens their home schedule playing Marshall and Old Dominion, who rank 85th and 108th in ESPN FPI respectively. Both of these teams I don't think Virginia Tech will have a problem dealing with. There is no doubt that Marshall will be a solid team in the Sun Belt, and they have given the Hokies problems in the past, like a 24-17 loss during the 2023 season. Despite this, Marshall doesn't look to be the team they were last year, and Virginia Tech should breeze by in these two games.

After those three games to begin the season, Tech faces their hardest OOC opponent the entire season. Rutgers, who places 45th in ESPN RPI is another tesm who has been attempting a turnaround. This is the first game on the schedule where VT may be evenly matched. Rutgers had a 7-6 record last year, and had their first bowl win since 2014, notably their first year in the Big Ten. Winning this game might be crucial to an ACC Championship Game run, but if VT can win this game, they will be well on their way.

Heading into ACC play, Tech might be 4-0, much unlike 2023 where Tech's only win was against Old Dominion. Having such a record will be a large motivator once VT starts playing in the conference.

In ACC play, the Hokies only play two teams ranked in the top 50 in ESPN's Preseason FPI. Those two teams are Miami (FL) and Clemson. Clemson, ranked 15th in FPI, ranks 2nd in the ACC in FPI, only behind preseason conference favorite, Florida State. Miami on the other hand, ranks 4th in the ACC. Miami is talented, but questions about whether Mario Cristobal can get the most out of his team remain.

The Hurricanes have three fairly easy games before they play in Lane Stadium. Because of this, Miami is more likely to take the Hokies less seriously at home. Which makes that game very winnable for VT. It seems like the stars are just aligning for VT in that game. Coming off their biggest game of the year at home against Rutgers, they open ACC at home, in what will be a rocking environment.

Truly, if VT wins this game, they would not have to beat Clemson later in the season to reach the conference title game.

Last year, ACC fans saw Louisville reach the championship game, despite a loss to Pittsburgh in the earlier season. Since the ACC did away with divisons in 2023, the two teams with the highest conference win percentage qualify for the Championship game.

So, Virginia Tech's path would have to look something like this: play well in your out of conference games to give yourself confidence early in the year, win one game out of your two-game series vs Miami and Clemson, and take care of all of your easier ACC opponents.

Outside of Miami and Clemson, the ACC schedule feels like an easy task for the Hokies. VT has Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Virginia all at home. The Hokies will travel to play Stanford, Syracuse, and Duke.

All of these teams rank outside of the top 50 in ESPN FPI, and will be challenging, sure, but no opponent sticks out as a "trap game" or a game where the Hokies might struggle.

All in all, if Virginia Tech can keep it clean in ACC play, they will have their shot at their last appearance in the ACC Championship Game since 2016.

And who knows, if you can get your team to the game, anything can happen. Yes it is a long shot, but Tech's schedule gives them an outside chance at their first conference championship since Tyrod Taylor and the 2010 Hokies.