Wake Forest vs North Carolina: Preview and Prediction

Game pick for the second matchup of the season between these in-state rivals

Gameday Info

Location: Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum - Winston-Salem, NC

Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Spread: North Carolina +1

Total: 154

North Carolina Team Overview:

Record: 15-8, (7-5)

KenPom: 36th (33rd Offensive, 45th Defensive)

Recent Games: L 63-57 at Duke, L 65-64 vs Pitt, W 72-68 at Syracuse

Leading Scorers:

Sr. F Armando Bacot (17.5 ppg, 11.3 reb, 1.1 blk)
Jr. G Caleb Love (16.3 ppg, 3.5 reb, 3.0 ast)
Jr. G RJ Davis (15.8 ppg, 5.0 reb, 3.3 ast)

It really is wild that this team was ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll. Was Brady Manek that important to this team? Was the run to the title game a complete fluke?

While the Tar Heels have lost eight games this year, including their last two outings, I still think this is a very good basketball team. From Dec. 10th on - Carolina has only lost four games, all in difficult spots. Plus, they easily could’ve won each of them. They lost to Pitt by two (led by nine late in the second half), at Virginia by seven (Bacot got hurt in the opening minutes), by one point vs Pitt again on Tuesday, and by six at Duke on Saturday (tied with four minutes remaining, didn’t score the rest of the way). This is my long winded way of saying that while Hubert Davis’ squad haven’t come close to living up to expectations, but this is still a team more than capable of being the best in the league.

Defensively, the Tar Heels were great this past week, holding Pitt and Duke to 65 and 63 apiece. Unfortunately for them, their high powered offense struggled mightily. Armando Bacot was held to 15 and 14 points in the two games, which by his standards is subpar. RJ Davis did his best Caleb Love impression in the two losses, shooting a poor 8-31 (25.8%) from the field and 1-11 (9.1%) from downtown.

Jokes aside, the talented Love was the team's leading scorer last week. His 34 combined points on the week didn’t come with great efficiency (13-31 FGS, 41.9%), but it was good to see him finally score over 20 in an ACC game. We know what Love and Davis are capable of as explosive guards who can make difficult shots, but Hubert Davis needs them to be more effective to get back into the win column.

Leaky Black and Pete Nance's offensive contributions have been quite inconsistent. Nance scored just two points vs Duke, but exploded for 21 against Syracuse two weeks ago. Black is out there to defend mostly, but when he can knock down some threes (3-6 3PTs vs Duke) it helps space things out. The bench continues to mainly be a non-factor. Reserves combined for a total of nine points across the two losses last week.

While the college basketball world has gone cold on North Carolina, it's important to put in perspective that they are clearly still a good basketball team. The Tar Heels lead the ACC in free throw attempts, are second in rebounding and third in scoring.

Wake Forest Team Overview:

Record: 15-9 (7-6)

KenPom: 66th (26th Offensive, 146th Defensive)

Recent Games: W 81-64 at Notre Dame, L 75-73 vs Duke, L 79-77 vs NC State

Leading scorers:

Gr. G Tyree Appleby (18.0 ppg, 6.0 ast, 1.6 stl)
Jr. G Damari Monsanto (13.7 ppg, 3.5 reb, 41.5 3PT%)
So. G Cameron Hildreth (12.9 ppg, 6.1 reb, 2.8 ast)

Since Jan. 1, Wake Forest has only beaten one team that has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament - a home win over undermanned Clemson back on Jan. 17. This home matchup against a sliding North Carolina team likely won’t register as a Q1 win, but it's still a must win spot for the Deacs if they want to keep their at-large chances alive.

The Deacs got back on track Saturday, putting an end to their four-game skid in South Bend, making 14 three-pointers in an easy win over Notre Dame. Damari Monsanto was on fire, drilling 8-13 treys on his way to a career high 28 points. Wake got off to a super slow start in this one, trailing 16-4 ten minutes in, but dominated the rest of the game.

On the four game losing streak, three of the losses came by just two points. Lights out shooting from three-point range propelled Virginia (15-34, 44%) and Pittsburgh (18-37, 49%) to victory. Against NC State, big DJ Burns dominated the game from the low post, leading the Wolfpack to a comeback road victory. A week ago against Duke, defense wasn’t the team’s downfall — it was long range shooting. Wake shot an ice cold 4-17 (23.5%) on three-pointers in the second half, which felt like the difference in the game.

Something to monitor is if Steve Forbes will stick with a small-ball lineup for this matchup. In the past two games, 6’1” Daivien Williamson has replaced 7’1” Matthew Marsh in the starting lineup, sliding 6'10" Andrew Carr to the five spot. This look spaces things out more offensively, but lacks a physical presence down low. It’ll be interesting to see if Forbes sticks with this lineup against the Tar Heels, or if Bacot will force him to play Marsh and Davion Bradford more.

Offensively, Monsanto and Tyree Appleby have been carrying this group lately. Over his last five games Monsanto is averaging 21.6 points and 4.6 made threes per contest. He’s the only player in the Power 6 averaging 3.3 threes per game or more, and he’s doing that while shooting 41.5% from deep.

Appleby has been impressive all season long, although his efficiency has waned from his scorching hot start to non-conference play. He averaged 21.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in the two games this past week. Appleby is so important to this team that he has barely come off of the floor during ACC play. He’s only played less than 38 minutes once since Dec. 20 (Jan. 7 at Louisville).

After scoring 15+ in six straight games in January, Cameron Hildreth has scored 12 or less in each of his last three games. 6'10" Freshman Bobi Klintman saw a big uptick in minutes this past week, as his versatility on both ends makes him valuable as the first guy off the bench to join the small-ball unit. Klintman scored 18 points on 7-8 shooting in his last two games (4-4 3PTs), and has done a little bit of everything for the Deacs.

Wake continues to rank No. 2 in the ACC on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency during conference play, but is No. 10 on the other end of the floor. Wake will need to be excellent again offensively Tuesday night. 

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Flashback: January 4th, 2023 - North Carolina defeats Wake Forest 88-79

When these teams squared off in Chapel Hill a month ago, the Tar Heels came out on top in a high scoring affair. The teams were neck and neck for 75% of the game, but with ten minutes left, trailing by one, Carolina went on a 12-3 run. They maintained control the rest of the way.

Bacot put together a strong 21 point, nine rebound, five assist performance. Davis exploded for 27 points, and Black scored a season high 18. Nance got hurt two minutes into this game, so Seth Trimble and Justin McKoy absorbed more minutes off the bench.

Wake shot 10-21 (47.6%) from three-point land, but weak defense and 15 turnovers led to their downfall. Monsanto, Carr, and Appleby combined for 49 of the team's points.

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Prediction:

This game features two teams desperately needing a win. Carolina has lost two in a row, and Wake has lost their last two at home.

No matter what lineup Forbes chooses to roll with, Bacot is going to be tough to stop. There’s definitely a correlation between Bacot’s success and that of his team, so UNC will need to make more of an effort to get him as many touches as possible. Wake’s ability to keep him from having a monster game will be essential.

Davis and Love haven’t been able to both put together strong games in a long time. Even though UNC is much improved on the defensive end, Wake is too good offensively for the Tar Heels’ guards to be inefficient Tuesday night.

I expect Carolina to find success against this weak Deacon defense, but I’m siding with the home team in a rockin’ environment to knock down 10+ threes on their way to victory. 

The Pick: Wake Forest +1

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 78 North Carolina 71

Season prediction record

13-11 ATS

18-6 Straight up

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