2022-23 ACC Basketball Preview: Duke Blue Devils
Head Coach: Jon Scheyer (1st season)
2021 in Review
Record: 32-7 (16-4)
ACC Finish: 1st place
KenPom Ranking: 8 (1 Offense, 49 Defense)
ACC Tournament: 88-79 W vs Syracuse, 80-76 W vs Miami, 82-67 L vs Va. Tech
NCAA Tournament: 78-61 W vs CS Fullerton, 85-76 W vs Michigan State, 78-69 W vs Arkansas, 78-73 W vs Texas Tech, 81-77 L vs North Carolina
Heading into coach Mike Krzyzewski’s retirement tour, expectations were sky high with a very talented roster. A trip to the Final Four marks the 2021-2022 season as a success, but the context surrounding that achievement for the Blue Devils will always be considered. The unexpected loss in Coach K’s final game at Cameron to hated rival North Carolina was a stinger, and the Tar Heels would eventually double down on spoiling the farewell tour. It felt like fate when a rematch was miraculously set up in the tournament (for the first time ever) and UNC gutted out another victory.
As heavy favorites in the ACC Tournament, Duke was flat out outplayed in the title game by a much less talented Virginia Tech side. Duke did play their best ball of the season after that loss on their way to the Final Four, taking out Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Arkansas. Offensively, they were nearly impossible to contain.
With four NBA draft picks in their starting five, Duke threw out the more talented group onto the floor every single game they played. But many times throughout the season, this team did not play to its full potential, especially on the defensive end. Whenever they focused on playing through Paolo Banchero and Mark Williams, and didn’t settle for too many threes, they truly looked unstoppable. The team also had the potential to be dominant on defense with physicality and quickness on the perimeter, and Williams protecting the rim.
This team did however win its first outright ACC regular season title since 2005-06, and 12 of their 16 league wins were by double digits.
2022 Outlook:
Who’s Out: Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams, Trevor Keels, AJ Griffin, Joey Baker (Michigan), Theo John
Who’s In: Dereck Lively II, Dariq Whitehead, Kyle Filipowski, Mark Mitchell, Jaden Schutt, Jacob Grandison (Illinois), Tyrese Proctor, Ryan Young (Northwestern), Kale Catchings (Harvard), Max Johns (Princeton), Christian Reeves
Projected Starting Lineup:
Jr. G Jeremy Roach (6-2, 180 lbs)
Gr. G Jacob Grandison (6-6, 190)
Fr. G Dariq Whitehead (6-7, 220)
Fr. F Kyle Flipowski (6-11, 230)
Fr. C Dereck Lively II (7-1, 230)
Off the Bench:
Fr. F Mark Mitchell (6-8, 220)
Fr. G Tyrese Proctor (6-5, 175)
Gr. C Ryan Young (6-10, 235)
Fr. G Jaden Schutt (6-5, 185)
So. G Jaylen Blakes (6-2, 200)
Fr. C Christian Reeves (7-0, 245)
Gr. F Kale Catchings (6-5, 215)
Gr. G Max Johns (6-5, 205)
A mass exodus of players is nothing new for the Blue Devils. The core of last year’s team in Banchero, Williams, AJ Griffin and Trevor Keels all made the jump to the next level. Those four accounted for two-thirds of the team's scoring.
The one key returnee is junior Jeremy Roach (8.6 PTS, 3.1 AST) who really came on as the season went along. The quick guard is a good defender, nifty at getting into the lane, and has a nice shooting touch. From Dec. 22 – Feb. 12, he didn’t score in double figures once, but in the stretch of games after that, he did so on eight separate occasions.
Surrounding him is a group of freshmen that are oozing with talent. A No. 1 recruiting class is nothing new for the Blue Devils, but it’s impressive that Scheyer was able to pull it off in year one.
Dereck Lively II is the top recruit in the entire 2023 class per 247Sports. However he’s currently projected as a late lottery pick rather than a surefire top-five pick. Lively is an exceptionally skilled and smooth seven-footer, who can make an impact everywhere on the court. Dariq Whitehead is trails only Lively in the recruiting rankings, and is another projected lottery pick. Whitehead is an impressive athlete and can do a bit of everything as well. I’m expecting these two to be Duke’s two best players and play at an All-ACC level right off the bat.
Kyle Filipowski, the No. 4 recruit in the class, looks like a Matthew Hurt clone. Filipowski can bang down low with his big frame and also step out and shoot it from distance. Another key piece is Mark Mitchell, the No. 22 recruit, who could be the team’s best perimeter defender. He’s a strong, physical player, but is less developed offensively compared to the three I just mentioned.
Tyrese Proctor, a long, smart, combo guard from Australia, is another exciting newcomer. He should emerge as the go-to ball handler outside of Roach. There’s still more to this class — No. 69 recruit Jaden Schutt could easily step in and become the team’s best shooter from long range.
Illinois transfer Jacob Grandison has been playing college ball since 2017 and is a perfect transfer portal addition for the Blue Devils. After two years at Holy Cross, Grandison was an important piece for the Illini last year (9.6 PTS, 3.8 REB, .41 3P%). He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to make an impact, and his floor spacing ability plus his experience make him a great addition.
Another veteran who will see minutes off the bench is bruiser Ryan Young. Young (9.0 PTS, 4.2 REB) was a solid player off the bench for Northwestern last year and will look to provide depth behind the young bigs.
Freshman big man Christian Reeves is more of a project. The Oak Hill Academy product has a lot of upside as a rim-running shot blocker. Reserve guard Jaylen Blakes was a top 100 recruit last season, but didn’t play meaningful minutes. It’ll be a challenge for either of these guys to establish a consistent role this season on a loaded roster.
Two Ivy league transfers, Kale Catchings and Max Johns, round out the newcomers. Catchings (9.1 PTS, 4.0 REB, .37 3P%) was a solid player for Harvard last year and should definitely be involved off the bench. Johns never averaged more than 10 minutes a game at Princeton, so he clearly transferred to Duke for reasons other than playing time.
ACC Prediction: 4th Place
The talent is through the roof, but I expect some growing pains with all the youth. It’s a lot of pieces for Scheyer to put together in his first season – and we’ve seen Hall of Famers like Coach K and John Calipari struggle in the past to turn young talent into winning college basketball teams. Roles need to be found, egos need to be managed and team defense needs to be developed. The non-conference schedule is tough (Kansas, Ohio State, Iowa) but I think struggling early will bode well for this team.
I like Roach’s game a lot and I expect him to take another step forward this season. I don’t see him as an All-ACC guy though. But the ceiling of this team will be dictated by the play of the incoming freshman class. Lively, Whitehead, Filipowski, Mitchell and Proctor are all exciting prospects. Much of the pressure rests on the shoulders of Lively and Whitehead to instantly be All-ACC caliber performers. But based on everything I’ve seen and heard about them, I’m confident that they will live up to the hype.
I think the role players this year will be better than last season. Joey Baker was a three-point specialist who couldn’t hit a shot in February and March, and Theo John only produced one stat – fouls. Grandison, Catchings, and Young will replace these two in similar roles, and I expect them to perform better. Duke was relying basically on six guys last year, so going closer to 8-9 deep in 2022-23 will be a nice boost.
No first-year head coach in the country has higher expectations placed on him than Scheyer does. This team will obviously be good, but I expect the more experienced ACC squads to be more consistent in league play than these Blue Devils
When does Duke play Wake Forest?
Dec 20: Duke at Wake Forest
Jan 31: Wake Forest at Duke
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Christian is the Publisher and Lead Editor for Deacons Daily A '22 Wake Forest graduate, Christian spent 4 years covering the Men's Basketball team for the student paper, the Old Gold & Black