ACC Basketball Power Rankings: Week 15

Is the ACC really the seventh best conference in the nation?

I wrote at the beginning of power rankings a few weeks ago what my criteria is. Click here to check it out.

There's been plenty of chatter this week about how horrible the ACC is. As much as I want to defend the conference, it's difficult to craft an argument fueled by objective truth that silences the critics. The average NET ranking of the 14 ACC schools is 110.1, which ranks the league as the seventh best conference. The Mountain West, for reference, has an average NET of 87.3.

The two main factors for evaluating how good a team is are the number or quality wins and bad losses. While the process for assigning those labels is isn't perfect, there's plenty of validity to the current system. Using that criteria to compare the ACC to other conferences, the weakness of the league is quite undeniable.

Oklahoma is in last place in the Big 12 with a 13-14 record and ranks 52nd in KenPom. They haven't lost to a single team outside the KenPom top 75, and have a 24-point win over No. 2 Alabama to their name. LSU is 1-13 in the SEC, but they went 11-2 outside of league play (including a win over Wake Forest). 14-14 Nebraska won at Creighton by ten points back in December, and there worst loss on the year came vs 16-12 St. John's.

Teams do get better as the season goes along, but for the conference to have a strong reputation, everybody needs to carry their weight and take care of business in non-conference. Boston College lost at home to Maine and New Hampshire. Syracuse lost to Bryant. Clemson lost to Loyola Chicago, and Louisville lost to everybody. And those are just some examples.

It's hard to win road games in any league, and the ACC is no different. The weak reputations built in non-conference permeate around the league when the bad teams start to play better and win games that they aren't expected to. 

The ACC is in trouble for the second year in a row, and while people can continue to create alternate narratives or complain about the system, the reality of the situation is that too many teams lost too many games in November and December. And they're paying the price now. 

The selection committee announced the top 16 seeds a few days ago, and 22-5 Miami was omitted. That does not generate much hope for how the league will be regarded come Selection Sunday.

Let's take a look at the conference standings as of the morning of February 21st:

ACC Standings

1. Virginia Cavaliers (21-4, 13-3)
2. Miami Hurricanes (22-5, 14-4)
3. Pitt Panthers (19-8, 12-4)
4. Clemson Tigers (19-8, 11-5)
T5. NC State Wolfpack (20-6, 10-5)
T5. Duke Blue Devils (20-8, 11-6)
T7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (17-10, 9-7)
T7. Syracuse Orange (16-11, 9-7)
9. North Carolina Tar Heels (16-11, 8-8)
10. Boston College Eagles (13-15, 7-10)
11. Virginia Tech Hokies (16-11, 6-10)
12. Florida State Seminoles (8-20, 6-11)
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-16, 3-13)
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-17, 2-14)
15. Louisville Cardinals (4-24, 2-15)

Virginia plummeted down the KenPom.com rankings after two narrow defeats against bottom tier teams in the league. The ACC does not have a single team in the top 20 according to the model:

KenPom Rankings

1. Virginia Cavaliers - 24th in Division I (51st Offensive Efficiency, 26th Defensive)
2. Miami Hurricanes - 31st (6th Off, 123rd Def)
3. Duke Blue Devils - 34th (63rd Off, 31st Def)
4. NC State Wolfpack - 43rd (37th Off, 55th Def)
5. North Carolina Tar Heels - 44th (39th Off, 56th Def)
6. Pitt Panthers - 58th (49th Off, 81st Def)
7. Virginia Tech Hokies - 70th (28th Off, 132nd Def)
8. Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 78th (27th Off, 155th Def)
9. Clemson Tigers - 83rd (104th Off, 69th Def)
10. Syracuse Orange - 98th (80th Off, 135th Def)
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 170th (81st Off, 287th Def)
12. Boston College Eagles - 197th (248th Off, 122nd Def)
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - 202nd (249th Off, 131st Def)
14. Florida State Seminoles - 215th (168th Off, 254th Def)
15. Louisville Cardinals - 280th (246th Off, 286th Def)

Now let's get into my updated Power Rankings:

Power Rankings

1. Miami Hurricanes (22-5, 13-4)

Last week: 2

Last week’s results: W 96-87 vs Wake Forest, W 80-72 at North Carolina

Miami has finally earned the top spot here as the best team in the ACC. The Hurricanes are up to No. 13 in the AP Poll and are winners of six in a row. This is the most dangerous group in the league because they consistently bring their A game and are nationally elite on the offensive end of the floor. Nijel Pack has scored 22+ and knocked down 4+ three-pointers in three straight games. His increased production has strengthened an already very explosive offensive attack. Jim Larrañaga's group is firing on all cylinders.

Up next: 2/21 at Virginia Tech, 2/25 vs Florida State

2. Virginia Cavaliers (21-4, 13-3)

Last week: 1

Last week’s results: W 57-55 vs Notre Dame, W 61-58 at Louisville

Two one-possession wins over the two worst teams in the league this week makes the Cavaliers No. 6 ranking in the AP Poll feel extremely fraudulent. A win is a win, I guess, but against two teams with a combined 14-41 record on the year, Virginia should be cruising to victories. Playing at a slow pace is one thing, but scoring under 62 points against two teams outside the top 277 in KenPom defensive efficiency is flat out abysmal. All that being said, the Cavaliers are quite difficult to beat, and they control their own destiny for an ACC regular season title.

Up next: 2/13 at North Carolina, 2/18 vs Wake Forest

3. Duke Blue Devils (20-8, 11-6)

Last week: 3

Last week’s results: W 79-62 vs Louisville, W 77-55 at Syracuse, W 68-64 vs Notre Dame

Duke is finally fully healthy and they've now won three straight games. This talented group has displayed a ceiling that arguably only Miami has shown in the league this season. Syracuse has been very tough at home this year, and the Blue Devils went on the road and dominated them. Duke shots 13-26 from deep in that game, and they are a very tough team to beat when the perimeter shots are falling. A 5-20 performance from long range against Notre Dame led to that final score being much closer than it should've been. 

Up next: 2/25 vs Virginia Tech

4. Pitt Panthers (19-8, 12-4)

Last week: 4

Last week’s results: L 79-72 at Virginia Tech, W 77-58 vs Boston College

A loss in Blacksburg doesn’t change my perception of this Pitt team. The loss ended their six game winning streak, as Jeff Capel's group shot 3-18 (16.7%) from downtown. On Tuesday, Pitt easily handled Boston College at home, and Blake Hinson knocked down six treys on his way to 21 points. The Panthers are well on their way to an NCAA Tournament appearance, and still have a legitimate shot at winning a share of the regular season title.

Up next: 2/21 vs Georgia Tech, 2/25 vs Syracuse

5. NC State Wolfpack (21-7, 11-6)

Last week: 6

Last week’s results: W 77-69 vs North Carolina, L 75-72 at Syracuse

NC State dropped a Quad 2 game at Syracuse on Tuesday, but bounced back with a home win over North Carolina on Sunday. Trailing by six with nine minutes remaining, the Wolfpack turned on the jets with a 27-9 run and came away with a win. Jarkel Joiner dazzled with a 29-point gem, and DJ Burns added 18. Jack Clark’s return has provided a noticeable boost to this group. The LaSalle transfer supplied 15 points and nine rebounds in the loss to Syracuse, and added six points and eight boards against Carolina. Kevin Keatts has done a tremendous job with this group, and they'll look to keep rolling with two more games at PNC Arena this week.

Up next: 2/22 vs Wake Forest, 2/25 vs Clemson

6. North Carolina Tar Heels (16-11, 8-8)

Last week: 5

Last week’s results: L 77-69 at NC State, L 80-72 vs Miami

The white flag is officially up in the air. North Carolina is now 0-8 in Quad 1 games, and their at-large hopes are in extreme danger. This team is in a state of turmoil and Hubert Davis hasn't been able to get this group to play anywhere near the level they were expected to after last year's March run. The fact that I still have them ranked sixth speaks to why the ACC is being ripped apart by the college basketball world. 

Up next: 2/22 at Notre Dame, 2/25 vs Virginia

7. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (17-10, 9-7)

Last week: 8

Last week’s results: L 96-87 at Miami

It would've been quite the win if Wake Forest was able to steal one in Coral Gables, but once again they weren't able to do enough to get a win against a high quality opponent. Defense continues to be the kryptonite for this group, as only one team in the country has a shot at an at-large bid that ranks behind the Deacs in KenPom defense (Missouri, 211th). Tyree Appleby committed 12 of the team's 19 turnovers, and Miami capitalized by killing them in transition. Knocking down 15 threes on the road against a ranked opponent and not come away with a victory is a total failure. Another missed opportunity for this group.

Up next: 2/22 at NC State, 2/25 vs Notre Dame

8. Virginia Tech Hokies (16-11, 6-10)

Last week: 9

Last week’s results: W 79-72 vs Pitt, L 77-70 at Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech proved on Saturday with another impressive home victory that they are a capable group. However with a 5-10 record in conference play and four Q3/Q4 losses this season they’ve done themselves no favors in being regarded more highly. Similarly to Wake, the Hokies are a fantastic offensive team who are far too wear on the other end of the floor. The 77 points they surrendered in the loss to Georgia Tech is the most the Jackets had scored since a Dec. 17 matchup against Alabama State. The Hokies are favored at home vs Miami on Tuesday night.

Up next: 2/21 vs Miami, 2/25 at Duke

9. Clemson Tigers (19-8, 11-5)

Last week: 7

Last week’s results: L 83-73 at Louisville, W 94-54 vs Florida State

Three days after a 40-point annihilation of Florida State, Clemson did the unthinkable. You simply cannot lose to Louisville after the season they have had up to this point. The Tigers now have three Quad 4 losses, and the team that held first place in the ACC for the first half of league play is now in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. PJ Hall scored 28 in the catastrophic loss, and the Tigers got just two points from players other than Hall, Chase Hunter, Hunter Tyson, or Brevin Galloway. A win at NC State on Saturday is necessary for their at-large chances.

Up next: 2/22 vs Syracuse, 2/25 at NC State

10. Syracuse Orange (16-11, 9-7)

Last week: 10

Last week’s results: L 77-55 vs Duke, W 75-72 vs NC State

After coming up short a handful of times at home against upper tier ACC teams, the Orange were able to close finally in the Wednesday win over NC State. However they couldn’t keep the momentum going against Duke, and were thoroughly dominated on Saturday. Syracuse hasn’t moved from this 10th spot in the power rankings in forever, as they are the undisputed bridge between the middle and bottom of the league.

Up next: 2/22 at Clemson, 2/25 at Pitt

11. Boston College Eagles (13-15, 7-10)

Last week: 11

Last week’s results: W 75-69 at Florida State, L 77-58 at Pitt

It's the same story with this Boston College group - they are the best of the bad teams in the ACC. They are able to compete at a high level about half of the time, but just don't have enough to bring it consistently. They were no match for Pittsburgh on Tuesday, but secured a nice road win in Tallahassee on Saturday. Quentin Post drilled all five of his three-point attempts in the win on his way to 21 points.

Up next: 2/22 vs Virginia

12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-17, 2-14)

Last week: 14

Last week’s results: L 57-55 at Virginia, L 68-64 at Duke

I thought Mike Brey's group was toast, but Notre Dame put together arguably their two best defensive performances of the season this past week. However, the Irish weren't able to steal a win in either game, and are now losers of nine of their last ten. Dane Goodwin exploded for 25 in Cameron, and Nate Laszewski scored 18 against Virginia. If Notre Dame can continue to play this hard, they could instill some fear in the top seeds during the ACC Tournament.

Up next: 2/22 vs North Carolina, 2/25 at Wake Forest

13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-16, 3-13)

Last week: 13

Last week’s results: W 79-56 vs Florida Tech, W 77-70 vs Virginia Tech, 

Why did Georgia Tech play Florida Tech on Saturday? Great question. Josh Pastner didn't want to take Saturday off with their ACC bye so he kept his guys fresh with a non-D1 opponent. The Yellow Jackets have definitely been playing better ball lately, and if they didn't blow that game late last week against Wake Forest they would be on a four (more like three and half) game win streak.

Up next: 2/21 at Pitt, 2/25 vs Louisville

14. Florida State Seminoles (8-20, 6-11)

Last week: 12

Last week’s results: L 75-69 vs Boston College, L 94-54 at Clemson

Oof. Not much to say here. Recency bias is allowed in power rankings but not to the extent that I'm willing to put the Seminoles behind Louisville. But getting smoked by a Clemson team that the Cardinals just beat by ten is definitely a bad look. Apparently Leonard Hamilton is 100% coming back next season anyway.

Up next: 2/25 at Miami

15. Louisville Cardinals (4-24, 2-15)

Last week: 15

Last week’s results: L 79-62 at Duke, W 83-73 vs Clemson, L 61-58 vs Virginia

Louisville has played much better lately, and might have even spoiled Clemson's at-large hopes on Saturday. They gave Virginia a real scare, but the quick turnaround for Big Monday at Duke ended their little "hot" streak. Credit to Kenny Payne for not allowing his team to get demoralized by their record.

Up next: 2/25 at Georgia Tech

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