ACC vs Big Ten Challenge: Day 3 Previews and Predictions

Wednesday's slate is loaded with top quality games

Welcome back to our third and final preview of the Big 10-ACC Challenge. The challenge is all but over, with the ACC leading 5-3. Wednesday's slate sees six more very interesting matchups set to tip-off this evening.

No. 25 Ohio State (5-1) @ No. 17 Duke (6-2)

Time: 7:15 p.m. ET

Channel: ESPN

Line: Duke -5.5

Total: 135.5

Ohio State was picked to finish sixth in the preseason Big Ten media poll. They’ve exceeded expectations thus far this season, picking up impressive wins against Cincinnati and Texas Tech at the Maui Invitational. Their one loss came against a top-25 opponent, San Diego State. Senior forward Zed Key leads the way for the Buckeyes, and he's complimented by senior Justice Sueing and freshman Brice Sensabaugh. The versatile trio leads a potent scoring attack for Chris Holtman’s team, averaging almost 80 points a game.

Year one of the post Coach K era has been off to a bit of a rocky start for the Blue Devils. An early season loss to Kansas showed that there would be growing pains for Jon Scheyer and his young team. After escaping with a three-point victory against Oregon State and looking less than convincing against Xavier, Duke lost over the weekend, against another elite team in Purdue. Freshman Kyle Filipowski has been outstanding, but the other highly-touted Duke freshmen are still finding their footing. Back in Cameron Indoor, this is an important chance for Duke to secure their first ranked win of the season.

The Pick: Duke -5.5

Although Duke has struggled early this season, I see them winning this one handily. That’s because Ohio State will not have an answer for Kyle Filipowski. The Buckeyes have a trio of talented forwards, but few in the country are able to match up defensively against the versatile 7’0” big man. The Buckeyes have the talent to keep this one close, but the home-court advantage at Cameron Indoor makes all the difference.

Score Prediction: Duke 81, Ohio State 70

READ: Wake Forest wins at Wisconsin, Appleby scores 32

No. 5 Purdue (6-0) @ Florida State (1-7)

Time: 7:15 p.m. ET

Channel: ESPN2

Line: Purdue -15

Total:  135.5

Big man Zach Edey has been dominant to start the year, and Purdue has surprisingly been one of the top teams in the nation. With impressive wins over Marquette, West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke, Purdue has proven they can take down the best teams in the nation. Edey averages 21.7 points and 12 rebounds per game, both top-10 rates in the entire country. Matt Painter is an experienced coach who has surrounded Edey with a group of guards who can space the floor– the Boilermakers have shot an impressive 38% from three this year, leading the entire Big Ten.

It’s been quite a rough start to the year for the Seminoles. Plagued by injuries, Leonard Hamilton’s team has only one victory– a nine-point win against Mercer. Losses to Florida and Stanford aren’t great, but the low points came during losses at home against Stetson and Troy and a neutral site walloping against Siena. Florida State’s last game was a 17-point loss to Nebraska, one of the only teams in the Big Ten with multiple losses. With a scoring margin of -9.3 on the season, there just isn’t anything working right now for the Seminoles.

The Pick: Purdue -15

A healthy Seminole team with length and a ferocious defense would have been quite the matchup for Purdue. However, Edey is far and away the best player taking the floor Wednesday night, and he will simply be too much for this struggling Florida State group. After the Boilermakers upset Duke by almost 20 points, I don’t think there’s any chance they will struggle to dominate the game in Tallahassee. 

Score Prediction: Purdue 80, Florida State 58

Rutgers (5-1) @ Miami (6-1)

Time: 7:15 p.m. ET

Channel: ESPNU

Line: Miami -3.5

Total: 136.5

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are ranked 36th in KenPom, an impressive spot for a team who hasn't beaten anybody yet. UMass Lowell is the highest ranked team that Rutgers has beaten on the season, and they’re all the way down at 142 on KenPom. The only loss Rutgers has this season was against 3-4 Temple. All that being said, the Scarlet Knights have looked good in their victories. Center Clifford Omoruyi is averaging a double-double on the season and senior guard Cam Spencer has stuffed the entire box score to begin the year, averaging. 17 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 3.7 steals per game. This will be the first real test of the season for Steve Pikiell’s bunch.

Miami’s team looks similar to last season. Transfers Nigel Pack and Norchad Omier have been seamless fits into Jim Larrañaga’s system. Along with star seniors Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, Coach L's group has continued to share the ball well and score efficiently. Along with their versatile offense, the Hurricanes have an impressive 4.57 turnover margin, too. Miami has secured nice wins over UCF and Providence, but they lost by 18 to Maryland, who out-rebounded the Hurricanes in that game 39-20 while shooting an incredible 60% from the field.

The Pick: Miami -3.5

I’m picking another favorite to cover because Miami is more battle-tested. Coming off a much tougher schedule, I expect the Hurricanes to play with an intensity Rutgers has not seen yet this season. Rutgers may be ranked higher in KenPom, but the only time the Scarlet Knights played away from home this season, they lost to Temple. The Hurricanes have a deep rotation that will frustrate the Rutgers back court, ultimately leading to a Miami victory.

Score Prediction: Miami 70, Rutgers 64

READ: Key Stats from Wake Forest's 78-75 win over Wisconsin

No. 18 North Carolina (5-2) @ No. 10 Indiana (6-0)

Time: 9:15 p.m. ET

Channel: ESPN

Line: Indiana -4.5

Total: 145

Although UNC has struggled a bit to begin this season, it's still essentially the same team that held a double digit lead in the NCAA Championship Game last season. Armando Bacot is averaging a double-double, and he’s one of four Tar Heels averaging double-digit points this season. However, the impressive scoring numbers and veteran experience hasn’t translated as expected on the court. The preseason number one looked vulnerable in close wins against Garnder-Webb, Charleston, James Madison, and Portland, and the last two times UNC took the floor, they were beaten. First by Iowa State, and then in quadruple overtime by Alabama. The issue has been the Tar Heel backcourt. Expected to be one of the best in the nation, Caleb Love and R.J. Davis are not scoring nearly as efficiently as they did in March and April.

North Carolina currently has just 84 assists to 84 turnovers as a team.

Caleb Love and R.J. Davis are taking 51.4% of the Tar Heels' shots through the first seven games of the season.

Tar Heels visit Indiana on Wednesday.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) November 29, 2022

The preseason Big Ten favorite, the season could not have started better for the Indiana Hoosiers. Led by star big man Trayce Jackson-Davis, this is the best Indiana team in a long time. Outside of a two-point victory against Xavier, only one other opponent has come within 20 points of taking down the Hoosiers. Indiana is quite balanced, with seven players behind Jackson-Davis averaging between 7.5 and 11 points per game. The Hoosiers are a deep team, hungry to bring winning basketball back to their passionate fanbase.

The Pick: UNC +4.5

This is the marquee matchup of the inter-conference showdown, and I expect it to also be the closest, most entertaining game. If Love and Davis can play under control, UNC could take advantage of their superior back court and beat the Hoosiers. However, I think there are still some usage and efficiency issues that Hubert Davis and his group are in the process of fixing, and they won’t be settled by tip-off in this one. Not many teams have a better frontcourt than UNC, but with Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson, Indiana has a spot on the short list. I'll take the Hoosiers to win a close on at home, but I'll scoop up the points with this veteran Tar Heel group.

Prediction: Indiana 81, UNC 77

No. 20 Michigan State (5-2) @ Notre Dame (5-1)

Time: 9:15 PM ET

Channel: ESPN2

Line: Michigan State -1.5

Total: 140.5 

You can never count out Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans. Unranked to begin the year, Michigan State has quickly shown the country that they are a force to be reckoned with. Michigan State has played a very challenging schedule to begin this season. Although they lost to Gonzaga (by one point on a naval ship) and Alabama, Sparty beat Kentucky, Villanova, and Oregon. Joey Hauser, Mady Sissoko, and Tyson Walker have each led Michigan State in scoring in a game this season, while Malik Hall and A.J. Hoggard each average over 4.5 assists per game.

Notre Dame’s start has been less than inspiring. The Fighting Irish lost by double-digits to St. Bonaventure, and their best win (according to KenPom) came against Youngstown State. Mike Brey has relied solely on his starters this year– five players average at least 33 minutes per game, and only one man off the bench has more than three appearances. The Notre Dame six are led by four familiar seniors: Cormac Ryan, Trey Wertz, Dane Goodwin and Nate Laszewski all returned to South Bend for one last season. They’re joined by talented freshmen J.J. Starling and Ven-Allen Lubin, who have supported their veteran leaders quite nicely.

The Pick: Michigan State -1.5

Michigan State has both the talent to match Notre Dame’s best players and the depth to outlast them. Sparty’s guards share the ball exceptionally well, and I think they’ll tire out the short Notre Dame rotation with their ability to pass and move in space. On the other end, Notre Dame registered only six assists in their loss to Bowling Green. If Sissoko is able to shut down Laszewski inside, it will again force the Irish to win with playmaking on the perimeter. Unless they shoot lights out, I really don’t see how Notre Dame wins this one.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 75, Notre Dame 63

Boston College (5-2) @ Nebraska (4-3)

Time: 9:15 p.m. ET

Channel: ESPNU

Line: Nebraska -6

Total: 131

KenPom ranks Boston College 107th in the country– a fair assessment of their early season struggles. Along with close wins against Rhode Island and Cornell, the Eagles have losses against Maine and Tarleton. BC is led by junior guard Makai Ashton-Langford, who impacts the game on both offense and defense for the Eagles. Sophomore guard Jaeden Zackery is the other important name to know for Boston College. Earl Grant’s young team was not expected to be among the elite in the ACC this season, but there are some talented pieces on the roster. Defense has been this group’s calling card, as BC has allowed only 62.1 points per game in 2022.

So far in 2022, Nebraska is a decent if unremarkable team. It’s understandable that the Cornhuskers lost to top-ranked Oklahoma, Memphis, and St. John’s. However, they lost by a combined 45 points. Without a signature win to accompany those defeats, Fred Hoiberg’s group has dropped down to 111 in KenPom. However, Nebraska has a balanced offense. Five players average 10+ points per game, including double-double machine Derrick Walker. Nebraska also has 7.19 steals per game this season, good for second-best in the Big 10. In their last outing, the Cornhuskers demolished Florida State– Walker had 20 and 13 to lead the way.

The Pick: Boston College +6

The last game of the challenge might be the toughest to predict, but I’m picking BC to pull off the small upset. Walker is going to get his double-double, but the Eagles can take advantage against Nebraska’s disappointing -7 rebounding margin. Ashton-Langford may be the best player on the floor in this one, and after being held to only nine points in his last game, he’s due for a big performance. If Nebraska’s balanced scoring attack gets going, it’s going to be tough for Boston College to keep up. Either way, I think these two evenly matched games end the Big 10-ACC challenge in a game decided by less than five points.

Score Prediction: Boston College 63, Nebraska 60

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