Duke vs Florida State: Preview and Prediction - ACC Basketball Pick of the Day
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Duke -17.5
Total: 143.5
Florida State Team Preview
Record: 4-10 (2-1)
KenPom Ranking: 150th (142nd Offensive, 170th Defensive)
Form: W 73-72 vs Notre Dame, L 93-79 vs St. John's, W 80-63 vs USC Upstate
Coming into the year with lofty expectations, this Florida State team has completely sputtered to start the season. The ACC Preseason Poll had them at No. 5 in the conference coming into the year, and KenPom currently ranks them as the No. 13 team in the conference, only ahead of Boston College and Louisville. The 'Noles have dealt with injuries and a suspension, and they haven’t gotten the big leaps from Jalen Warley and Matthew Cleveland that they were hoping for. However, coming off of a nice win against Notre Dame, this young Florida State team is 2-1 in conference play so far this season and seems to be regaining their footing.
Offensively, sharpshooter Darin Green Jr. (44.1% three point percentage) has been great, as well as point guard Caleb Mills (12.6 ppg, 3.5 apg). Cleveland (13.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg) solidifies the wing with an elite wingspan and some offensive pop. Defensively, this team has been weak, particularly on the perimeter. Three of the five starters (Green Jr, Cleveland, and Corhen) have negative defensive ratings on EvanMiya. Analytically, their only positive category relative to the nation is block percentage, which is largely due to reserve big man 7-4 Naheem McLeod’s 1.8 blocks per game.
The key for Florida State will be how well they can defend and guard Duke’s big men. The Noles have the size and athleticism to bother Duke, but that has prevented their defense from being underwhelming all season long. The front court is young and thin, and McLeod didn't play against Notre Dame and is questionable for Saturday. This places a ton of responsibility on 6-10 freshman Cameron Corhen (7.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg) to play big minutes at the five, a position he was fourth in line in for minutes this summer.
Duke Team Preview
Record: 10-3 (1-1)
KenPom Ranking: 17th (23 Off, 32 Def)
Form: L 81-70 at Wake Forest, W 82-55 vs Maryland Eastern Shore, W 74-62 vs Iowa
Currently No. 17 in the AP Poll, the Blue Devils are off to a solid start in Year 1 of the Jon Scheyer era. Coming off a surprising loss to Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, Duke is looking for a bounce back game against this weaker than usual Florida State team. Freshmen Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively II are back for this game after they both missed the Wake game due to illness.
Offensively, Duke crashes the glass very well (4th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage) largely due to star freshman Kyle Filipowski. As a team, they shoot very well from the free throw line (77.9 %), but not as well from behind the three point line (31.4%). Defensively, the Blue Devils play smart defense by not fouling (22nd in the nation in opposing free throw rate) and forcing tough shots (35th in opposing effective field goal percentage). Getting Lively and Whitehead back will be huge, as they are two of their top four defenders on EvanMiya.
Overall, this is a deep, balanced team without a lot of holes. Their key to the rest of the season will be establishing a more consistent rotation, as they almost have too many players that warrant playing time, plus we still haven't seen Whitehead or Lively take on the roles they were expected to this season. Duke is tough to play at Cameron, and after a bit of time off and some moving pieces it'll be interesting to see how quickly Scheyer's guys can get into a rhythm offensively.
The Pick: Duke -17.5
This spread is massive, but ultimately I’m confident in the talent and depth on this Duke team to cover the number off of a tough loss and a long rest. FSU hasn't rebounded the ball as well since Cam’Ron Fletcher was lost to injury, and Duke thrives on winning the battle on the boards. I see Filipowski having a huge day today. On the wing, I think Duke has enough athleticism to match FSU and contain Green. My only concern is that I could see Jeremey Roach struggle defensively due to FSU's height. The Seminoles haven't been great defensively and they've also been quite sloppy with the ball, so in this spot I'm confident in Duke to put together a statement blowout win.
Score Prediction: Duke 76, Florida State 52
ATS Record: 2-2
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Jack is a contributing basketball writer at Deacons Daily