Duke vs North Carolina: Preview and Prediction
This battle of two unranked teams is not what was expected out of our first UNC Duke game of the season, but here we are. A new era in this storied rivalry kicks off on Saturday night.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 6:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Duke -2.5
Total: 144.5
North Carolina Team Overview
Record: 15-7 (7-4)
KenPom Ranking: 35th (29th Offense, 53rd Defense)
Recent Games: 65-64 L vs Pittsburgh, 72-68 W at Syracuse, 80-69 W vs North Carolina State
Leading Scorers:
Sr. F Armando Bacot (17.7 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.1 bpg)
Jr. G Caleb Love (16.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.0 apg)
Jr. G RJ Davis (16.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.2 apg)
The Tar Heels, ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll, opened the season poorly but have been solid in ACC play, despite losing a downer to Pitt at home on Wednesday.
The Heels are going to need a massive game out of Armando Bacot, who needs to show that he's the best player in the league. This Heels team relies primarily on isolation scorers like Bacot, Love, and Davis, as they don’t pass the ball much (12th in the ACC in assists). Bacot has more free throw attempts than any other player in the ACC, so his ability to slow the game down and hopefully get the Duke big men in trouble will be crucial. Bacot is hot off of a 15 point, 11 rebound performance where he went to the line 15 times.
If North Carolina wants any shot at beating the Blue Devils in Cameron, RJ Davis has to play better than he has the past two games. Davis averages 16.0 PPG on the year, but is only averaging 8.5 PPG in the last two games, while shooting 29.2% from the field and 10% from three point range. Additionally, his defense has been lackluster, as his opposing PG matchup is averaging 19.5 PPG in the past two games (Syracuse’s Joseph Girard III and Pitt’s Nelly Cummings). Davis outscored Roach in all three meetings last season between these two squads. The Heels desperately need improved play from Davis in this one and the PG matchup will be fascinating to monitor.
Hubert Davis hasn't trusted his bench much lately, but he'll be happy to have sixth man Puff Johnson back after a three game absence. No bench player played more than 15 minutes in any of their meetings last season, and Puff Johnson is the only player off the bench that averages over 14 minutes per game.
Jalen Washington, D'Marco Dunn, Seth Trimble, and Tyler Nickel are all talented and have shown their potential, but once again Davis reluctant to sit his core five much at all.
Duke Team Overview
Record: 16-6 (7-4)
KenPom Ranking: 30th (34th Offense, 35th Defense)
Recent Games: 75-73 W vs Wake Forest, 86-43 W at Georgia Tech, 78-75 L at Virginia Tech
Leading Scorers:
Fr. F Kyle Filipowski (15.8 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.2 spg)
Jr. G Jeremy Roach (12.2 ppg, 3.1 apg, 1.1 spg)
Fr. F Mark Mitchell (9.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.6 bpg)
Just like Carolina, Duke’s season hasn’t gone as many expected, but they still remain one of the top teams in the ACC and might potentially re-enter the AP top 25 with a W in this rivalry matchup.
Duke is a very different team when playing in Cameron Indoor, flexing an 11-0 record. They’ve beaten some quality opponents at home this season, such as Ohio State, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest. However, all four of those games have been relatively close, with the average margin of victory being 5.3 points.
First year coach Jon Scheyer has not quite gotten as much as he expected out of his No. 1 ranked recruiting class. Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively II (the two top rated recruits of the class) both have missed time this season and have failed to live up to expectations. Whitehead was starting to find his stride before a lower leg injury suffered against Virginia Tech has forced him out of action. Lively has been great as a shot blocker (12 blocks in his last four games), but he still isn't playing a ton of minutes. He did however play 20+ minutes in Wake's last two games, the first time that's happened all season.
Kyle Filipowski has been Duke's best player all season, and has been on a tear as of late. Over his last six games he's averaging a very impressive 21.0 points and 11.8 boards.
This Duke team feasts on the boards, primarily offensive, as they lead the ACC in both rebounds per game and offensive rebounds per game by a comfortable margin. Filipowski and Ryan Young play crucial roles in this department, as Filipowski averages 9.5 rebounds per game, and Young averages 6.5 in only 21.1 minutes per game (both top 10 in the ACC). Bacot leads the ACC in rebounds per game, so it will be interesting to see who ends up with more rebounds and how physical this game will be.
Freshman gurd Tyrese Proctor is getting a lot more comfortable with his three point shot as of late. Over the last five games, he's averaging 6.4 attempts per game and is shooting them at a 34.4% clip, an improvement on his season average of 27.7%. The Blue Devils have looked most dangerous this season when Proctor is connecting from deep.
Prediction:
I've picked UNC for both of my last two PODs, but I'm rolling with them again here. Yes, I'm worried about going into the hostile environment of Cameron Indoor, where Duke hasn’t lost all season. Considering how last year ended with their bitter rival spoiling Coach K’s last home game and doubling down with another loss in the Final Four, Scheyer and Duke will be desperate for this one.
However, I think Carolina comes out with plenty of swagger in this one, as this core feels like they own Duke, while the Blue Devils are lacking the talent of last year's group. Coming off of a home loss to Pitt, Davis' guys will have plenty of fire for this one.
Carolina struggles against teams with multiple creators, as was seen against Pitt. Duke’s doesn't have the same level of guard play, plus RJ Davis has had Jeremy Roach's number over the years.
What scares me the most is Lively's ability to use his length to make things difficult for Bacot, but No. 5 in light blue is as matchup proof as it gets. The Duke UNC rivalry never disappoints, and although it's strange to see two unranked units, this should still be a high quality basketball game. I’m willing to take the more experienced team in this rivalry matchup. I'm taking Carolina here to win outright, but I'll grab the points just in case.
The Pick: North Carolina +2.5
Final Score Prediction: North Carolina 71, Duke 68
Jack Smartt's 2022-23 ATS Record: 5-5
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Jack is a contributing basketball writer at Deacons Daily